*CBB(1.5u): Miami ML(-130) vs Virginia–4 PM CT
Virginia runs at the slowest pace in the country and only averages 63 PPG. Their defense is down this season, and in turn, they have not matched up well with high-powered offenses for the sheer reason that they can’t go toe-to-toe with them. Miami ranks 20th in offensive efficiency, averages 75 PPG, and enters this game off of two straight road wins and covers, one of the hardest things to do in this sport. This is also Virginia’s second straight road game after crumbling against Virginia Tech the other night. I would lay up to 3 with the ‘Canes in this one, but I feel better about taking the ML and only having to pay a 20 cent premium.
*CBB(1u): Kansas State +5(-110) @ Oklahoma State–1 PM CT
Oklahoma State is not eligible for postseason contention given they’re on probation, but even so, we’ve seen them give a lot of effort down the stretch of this season. They’ve lost 2 of 3 entering today, and even so, they’re playing much better than they actually are. The Cowboys play a good brand of defense, but they have slipped 10 spots in my defensive efficiency metrics over the past few weeks. Additionally, they shoot less than 30% from 3 and rank outside of the Top 100 in offensive efficiency. Kansas State is a team with their NCAA Tournament hopes still alive, and they have proven to be quite sneaky this season. They have road wins against Iowa State, TCU, and Texas, as well as a double-digit home win against Texas Tech. As someone who follows Big 12 Basketball very closely, this line jumped out to me. I’ll take the points with the ‘Cats.
*CBB(1u): Arkansas ML(-130) vs Tennessee–3 PM CT
Kiev and I discussed this game on his podcast this weekend, and our overall sentiment was that Tennessee is overvalued and Arkansas is undervalued. I know Tennessee just beat Kentucky at home and has been rolling as of late, but that might actually make this a worse spot for them. I know the Vols play great defense, but I am taking a stand in saying they are not as good offensively as they’ve shown recently. Arkansas enters today having won 10 of their last 11 with their only loss coming by 1 at Alabama. Bud Walton Arena is one of the toughest places to play in the country, and I think the home team gets it done today. I would bet this up to Ark -3, but getting the ML at only -130, I’d prefer going that route.
*ML Parlay(0.8u): Baylor 1H, Wake Forest, Kentucky(+135)–11 AM CT
