North Carolina vs Duke
PICK: UNC +4.5
This is a Subscriber Play, I sent out North Carolina at +4.5 on Monday to my Subscriber Friends. Subscriber Plays are 30-11 ATS the last 41 games (73%). Become a Subscriber Here via The OddsBreakers.
We have already cashed an 18 to 1 ticket on Carolina to reach the Final 4 and have National Champion futures on Carolina +9000, Nova +2500 and Kansas +1400.
Carolina has an edge here in rebounding which is something I like to look at.
Also, the Tar Heels are holding opponents to 37.5 % shooting over their last 5 games.
I look at Carolina’s path in the tournament, They opened this tournament by beating Marquette by 32 points. They had Baylor down by 25 points, met some adversity in that game, and showed a lot to me fending off that come back by Baylor, and then beat the Cinderella of this tournament St Peters by 20 points after St Peters had knocked off Kentucky and Purdue
UNC is 8-1 ATS their last 9 games overall. They are 8-2 ATS their last 10 meetings with Duke including going in to Cameron and winning by 13 on March 5
Duke 3-7 ATS their last 10 games vs a team with a win % above .600
I think this is too many points Duke is giving vs a team in UNC that I think is the hottest team in college basketball right now.
My Computer Model 2 also projected North Carolina at +4.5. Model 2 and I are 54-33 against the spread this season when we agree on a play.
My last 5 games model projects UNC +4.5 as well , we are 7-3 when this model and I agree on a Spread Pick.
We will take North Carolina +4.5
