We’re rolling to start the MLB second half with a 9-2 +6.98 Unit start. Still need a big second half as that puts us back to -5.22 Units on the MLB season. My NFL Pre-Season preview articles will start soon and my Football package will be available to subscribers right here.
My Analysis today turns Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia where the Phillies (64-38) will host the Guardians (61-41) at 6:40 ET. The current line sits with the Phillies as the favorites at -186 with the Guardians getting +161. The Over/Under is at 8 with even juice both ways at -110. It will be warm with a game time temperature of 84 degrees. Wind will be blowing slightly in from left at 4-8mph.
The Phils come in with the best record in MLB and are 2-4 since the break. The Guardians are nipping at their heels for best MLB record and are 3-4 since the break.
Philadelphia will start Christopher Sanchez who has been excellent this season. He posts a 2.97 ERA to go with a 3.15 xFIP. His strikeout rate is a little low at 7.35 K/9, but he only walks 2.31 batters per 9 innings to go with it. His top skill is keeping the ball in the ballpark with an insanely low .25 HR/9. That is due for a little regression, but the way he is getting ground balls at a 58% clip it might not climb overly high. He does this by keeping hitters off balance as he has one of the best change-ups in the game. Only three of his 19 games started have resulted in the opponent plating more than three earned runs.
Cleveland will roll out Ben Lively who has results that are surpassing his skill set so far this year. He has a 3.57 ERA with a 4.27 xFIP. He shares similar K/BB rates as Sanchez with 7.71 K/9 and 2.60 BB/9. Lively uses a slider as his top pitch, but he also features a + value fastball in the mix as well.
So where does my handicap fall on this game? I am looking at a couple of key metrics in making a differentiation between two very similar pitchers taking the mound tonight.
Firstly, The Guardians are one of the top MLB offenses against left-handed pitching featuring a .754 OPS vs lefties. The Phillies aren’t too far behind them vs righties at .737. The Guardians strikeout at some of the lowest rates in MLB and should put the ball in play vs Sanchez. The key for them will be to not be put off-balance. If they can string together some hits more often than not when Sanchez gets hurt it is a big crooked number in a single frame.
Secondly the Guardians hold a big time bullpen advantage with an MLB leading 2.50 ERA vs the Phillies at 4.00. The Phillies are really struggling in the pen with the exception of Jeff Hoffman. Both key pieces in these bullpens rested yesterday, but if they pitch tonight it will be the third time in four games for Clase, Gaddis and Barlow for Cleveland and Hoffman, Strahm and Solo for Philly. If its a close game there is a huge edge for Cleveland here especially with the high usage rates.
My point here with the whole handicap is that other than a slight starting pitcher edge for Philadelphia, I see everything else either even or slightly favoring the Guardians. Now, the Phillies are finally healthy and due for a big offensive explosion, but even with that being said I would have had this in a -155/+135 range for the favorite and that extra $.25-30 is certainly more than worth a play here on a Lively dog with a chance to come from behind.
Guardians +161 1 Unit
