Hero World Challenge – Preview & Picks

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The Hero World Challenge is back after being postponed in 2020 due to COVID-19 regulations. The field this week is comprised of 20 golfers, 19 are in the world’s top 50 plus defending champion Henrik Stenson. This weeks event is not an official PGA Tour event and does not award any FedEx Cup points. However, it does have a nice $1 Million Dollar prize for the winner and counts towards the Official World Golf ranking. This event is essentially an “All Star Game” for the golf world as its an exclusive invite only event comprised of the biggest names in golf.

 

Tournament Information:

  • Dates: December 2nd, 2021- December 5th, 2021
  • Location: New Providence, Nassau, Bahamas
  • Course: Albany Golf Club
  • Par: 72 (5x 3’s / 8x 4’s / 5x 5’s)
  • Length: 7,302 yards
  • Format: 72 hole stroke play
  • Field/ Cut: 20 Players | No Cut
  • Greens: TifEagle bermudagrass .090”
  • Fairways: 419 bermudagrass .400”
  • Rough: 419 bermudagrass 1.5”
  • Stimpmeter: 12.0
  • Purse: $3,500,000 / Winner $1.0 Million
  • Bunkers: 52
  • Water Hazards: 3
  • Average Green Size: 4,500 sq. ft.
  • Scoring Average:
    • 2019: 69.792 (-2.208)

 

Course/ Tournament History:

This tournament made is debut in 2000 where it was staged twice, the first taking place in January and the second in December. The January event took place at Grayhawk Golf Club and the second at Sherwood Country Club in Thousand Oaks, California. The Hero World Challenge continued to take place at Sherwood until 2013. In 2014, it was switched to Isleworth and in 2015 it moved to the Albany where it currently remains. Tiger Woods is the host for this event and has the most wins with 5 (2001, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2011).

The tournament has gone by the following names in the past:

  • Williams Word Challenge (2000-2001)
  • Target World Challenge presented by Williams (2002-2003)
  • Target World Challenge presented by Countrywide (2004-2007)
  • Chevron World Challenge presented by Bank of America (2008-2009)
  • Chevron World Challenge (2010-2011)
  • World Challenge presented by Northwestern Mutual (2012)
  • Northwestern Mutual World Challenge (2013)
  • Hero World Challenge (2014- Currently)

 

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

Hole 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Yards 4 3 5 4 3 5 4 3 5
Par 423 187 572 492 180 595 340 216 603

 

Hole 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Yards 4 5 3 4 4 5 4 3 4
Par 435 589 202 483 298 548 485 184 470

 

The Albany Golf Club has a unique layout as it’s comprised of five Par 3’s and Par 5’s. The course it’s self is an oceanfront course but is described as having the characteristics of both a links and desert course. It’s a tough course to really handicap given the variety in in which players have won in the past. We’ve seen players rely on their short game and putting to win but, we’ve also seen bombers off the tee use that distance to win. Despite the different way players have won, one thing remains constant, and that’s a low score needed to win. If any player wants to have a chance here they need to capitalize on every scoring opportunity.

 

Course Architect/ Comparable Courses:

 

TV Information:

  • Round 1: Thursday, December 2nd, 2021
    • Golf Channel* – 1:30 PM – 4:30 PM ET
  • Round 2: Friday, December 3rd, 2021
    • Golf Channel* – 1:30 PM – 4:30 PM ET
  • Round 3: Saturday, December 4th, 2021
    • Golf Channel* – 12:30 PM – 2:30 PM ET
    • NBC** – 2:30 PM – 5:00 PM ET
  • Round 4: Sunday, December 5th, 2021
    • Golf Channel* – 11:00 AM – 1:00 PM ET
    • NBC** – 1:00 PM – 4:00 PM ET

 

Weather:

  • Thursday: Sunny 76 F, 8 mp/h NE, 69% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
  • Friday: Mostly Sunny 75 F, 12 mp/h ENE, 69% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
  • Saturday: Mostly Sunny 75 F, 10 mp/h ESE, 69% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
  • Sunday: Mostly Sunny 75 F, 11 mp/h ENE, 74% Humidity, 20% Chance of Rain

 

Key Statistics:

  • Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
  • Stokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)
  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Scrambling %
  • Par 5 Scoring
  • Par 3 Scoring

 

Field/ Odds:

  • Rory McIlroy (+700)
  • Collin Morikawa (+750)
  • Justin Thomas (+900)
  • Viktor Hovland (+1100)
  • Bryson Dechambeau (+1200)
  • Jordan Spieth (+1400)
  • Xander Schauffele (+1400)
  • Sam Burns (+1600)
  • Scottie Scheffler (+1600)
  • Tony Finau (+1600)
  • Abraham Ancer (+1800)
  • Daniel Berger (+1800)
  • Webb Simpson (+2500)
  • Brooks Koepka (+2500)
  • Matt Fitzpatrick (+2800)
  • Tyrrell Hatton (+2900)
  • Justin Rose (+3000)
  • Patrick Reed (+3300)
  • Harris English (+3500)
  • Henrik Stenson (+6500)

 

Previous Winners Scores & Prices:

  • 2019: Henrik Stenson (-18)
    • Price: 30-1
  • 2018: Jon Rahm (-20)
    • Price: 12-1
  • 2017: Rickie Fowler (-18)
    • Price: 8-1
  • 2016: Hideki Matsuyama (-18)
    • Price: 13-2
  • 2015: Bubba Watson (-25)
    • Price: 10-1

 

Picks (Outright):

  • Justin Thomas (+1000) – BetMGM

Despite Thomas’ “sub-par” 2021 season, which included a Players Championship, he seems to be trending in the right direction. He’s had some great finishes recently and has some course knowledge competing in this event three times prior. While his finishes haven’t been great, he’s almost due for a win to solidify his spot as one of the worlds best players. He may also have a little extra motivation this week to get a win in front of his mentor/ friend Tiger Woods.

 

  • Sam Burns (+1600) – FanDuel

Sam Burns is one of the hottest golfers on the planet right now and can make a statement here. He won the Sanderson Farms Championship back in October and since then has gone T14, T5, and T7. Burns is 1st in SG: Tee to Green and 4th in SG: Approach. The only downside to betting burns this week is that this is his tournament debut.

 

  • Brooks Koepka (+2500) – DraftKings

Brooks is coming off The Match, where he absolutely man handled Bryson Dechambeau on the golf course. He looked to be in great form and is at 25-1 in a 20 man field?? This line is flat out disrespectful to a guy that has won four majors. He hasn’t done well at this event in the past but maybe now that the Bryson beef is done, maybe he goes on a little bit of a tear?  He has the ability to play these long Par 5’s well and if the drivers working he should set himself up nicely here. His switch to Strixon has seemed to make a positive impact on his iron game which is another encouraging sign.

 

Pick (Top 10):

  • Patrick Reed (+135)- FanDuel

Reed loves this course, he has finished Top 10 in five of his six events at the Albany with the only outlier being an 11th place finish in 2018. I know he’s not in great form but given his previous results and at plus money, it’s hard not to have some action on him.

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.