Hewlett Packard Enterprise Houston Open – Preview & Picks

November 9, 2021

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Viktor Hovland repeats as champion at the WWT Championship at Mayakoba. He becomes the first PGA Tour member to win a tournament title back-to-back since Brooks Koepka won the 2018 and 2019 PGA Championships. Hovland was outstanding all tournament but, especially on Saturday, where he shot a career low 62.

We had Matthew Wolff who was leading the tournament going into the weekend until he shot a 74 on Saturday which moved him out of contention. Wolff would wind up finishing T5 for the tournament. However, we also had Mexico native Carlos Ortiz who finished second in the tournament. In the past four tournaments we have been so close to sweeping with the following results:

WWT Championship: Carlos Ortiz (2nd Place, 80-1)
Butterfield Bermuda Championship: Patrick Reed (2nd Place, 20-1)
ZoZo Championship: Hideki Matsuyama (1st Place, 14-1)
CJ Cup @ Summit: Collin Morikawa (2nd Place, 16-1)

The PGA Tour travels up to Texas where the Hewlett Packard Enterprise Houston Open will take place. This event has undergone a few sponsorship, venue, and date changes over the past few years but remains a regular stop on the PGA Tour. We have a decent field this week that features 18 of the world’s top 50 golfers as of now.

Tournament Information:

Dates: November 11th, 2021- November 14th, 2021
Location: Houston, Texas, United States
Course: Memorial Park Golf Course
Par: 70 (5x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
Length: 7,412 yards
Format: 72 hole stroke play
Field/ Cut: 132 Players | Top 65 and ties after 36 Holes
Greens: MiniVerde bermudagrass .100″
Fairways: 419 bermudagrass .425″
Rough: 419 bermudagrass 2.25″
Stimpmeter: 12.0- 12.5 feet
Purse: $7,500,000 / Winner $1.350 Million
FedEx Cup Points: 500
Bunkers: 17
Water Hazards: 2 (In-Play on 4 Holes)
Average Green Size: 7,000 sq. ft. (Large)
Scoring Average:
- 2020: 71.03 (+1.03)

Course/ Tournament History:

The Houston Open will take place at Memorial Park Golf Course for just the second time. In 2019 the Astros Foundation donated $34 million to revamp Memorial Park under the leadership of Tom Doak. Brooks Koepka was the PGA advisor for that renovation and is in the field this week (we’ll get to him later).

Prior to 2020, this tournament was played at the Golf Club of Houston. Last year this tournament took place in a week before the Masters due to the COVID-19 schedule changes. However this year, it’s the second to last PGA Tour Event in the Fall season.

This is also the first year that Hewlett Packard Enterprise will take over the sponsorship rights. With this change in sponsorship, the prize pool has been increased back to $7.5 Million which we saw in 2019.

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

After several weeks of short courses we finally arrive at Memorial Park Golf Course. Memorial is a particularly long course that plays just over 7,400 yards and places on emphasis on Strokes Gained Off the Tee. We always talk about how the long hitters have an advantage but they especially do here. Memorial played as the 12th toughest venue on tour last year which correlates to the scoring average.

This is a municipal course so if you’re ever in the Houston area, feel free to go check it out. When describing the course, it’s fairly open off the tee with generous fairways. The fairways are tree-lined however, they are a ways back and don’t place as big as an emphasis on driver accuracy like we saw last week. The rough is fairly penalizing and can burry the ball forcing a less than ideal approach shot. Memorial only has 17 bunkers that don’t play much of a factor. Most of the bunkers were eliminated during the 2019 renovation.

An interesting note for this tournament last year was that Strokes Gained: Around the Green played more of a role than Strokes Gained: Approach. Memorial features elevation changes from fairways to greens which makes approach shots even more challenging. This also placed an emphasis on play around the green due to missed GIR as previously mentioned. Carlos Ortiz who won the Houston Open last year finished 1st in scrambling for this event.

The length is the main factor here with eight of the ten Par 4’s playing over 440 yards. Out of these eight Par 4’s, two of them are over 500 yards (Holes #1 and #18). Memorial has five Par 3’s that are relatively long with the most difficult playing 237 yards (Hole #11). All three of the Par 5’s are very long and really provide a scoring advantage for long players. Like last year, birdie opportunities will be hard to come by and must be taken advantage of.

Course Architect/ Comparable Courses:

Course Architect: John Bredemus (1936)
Renovations: Tom Doak w/ Brooks Koepka as PGA adviser (2019)
- Renovated #9 green complex and removed two of the bunkers. Also added 750 sq. ft. to #2 green.
Comparable Courses:
- Detroit Golf Club (Rocket Mortgage Classic)
- TPC Scottsdale (Waste Management Open)
- TPC Harding Park (2020 PGA Championship)

TV Information:

Round 1: Thursday, November 11th, 2021
- Golf Channel* – 1:00 PM – 4:00 PM ET

Round 2: Friday, November 12th, 2021
- Golf Channel* – 1:00 PM – 4:00 PM ET

Round 3: Saturday, November 13th, 2021
- Golf Channel* – 1:00 PM – 4:00 PM ET

Round 4: Sunday, November 14th, 2021
- Golf Channel* – 1:00 PM – 4:00 PM ET

Weather:

Thursday: Partly Cloudy 65 F, 10 mp/h N, 63% Humidity, 20% Chance of Rain
Friday: Sunny 62 F, 8 mp/h NNE, 59% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
Saturday: Sunny 56 F, 9 mp/h N, 38% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
Sunday: Mostly Sunny 63 F, 8 mp/h S, 51% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain

Key Statistics:

Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
Stokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)
Strokes Gained: Around the Green
Strokes Gained: Approach
Scrambling
Greens in Regulation %
Driving Distance

Previous Winners Scores & Prices:

** Prior to 2020 the Houston Open was played at the Golf Club of Houston (previously Redstone Golf Course)

2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)
- Price: 160-1
2019: Lanto Griffin (-14)**
- Price: 60-1
2018: Ian Poulter (-19)**
- Price: 100-1
2017: Russell Henley (-20)**
- Price: 40-1

Picks (Outright):

Sungjae Im (+2500) – Caesars
- Risk 0.32 to win 8.00 Units

Sungjae Im starts the card for us coming off a win earlier this year in the Shriners Children’s Open. He’s been playing exceptionally well this year and enters the tournament 2nd in the FedEx Cup standings. Sungjae ranks 3rd in SG: Around the Green, 5th in SG: Tee to Green, 7th in SG: Total, and 26th in SG: Off the Tee. On top of that, he’s 63rd in Driving Distance and 6th in GIR %. Last year he finished 50th but given his recent form I think he can improve on that finish. If all those stats weren’t convincing enough, he’s also 2nd in Scrambling on Tour which as we saw last year played a major factor in Ortiz winning this event.

Brooks Koepka (+3000) – FanDuel
- Risk 0.27 to win 8.10 Units

After a brief peak at #golftwitter I think everyone is on Brooks this week which means we’ve most likely mushed him. With Brooks involved in the re-design of Memorial Park, he was bound to be a popular play. He hasn’t been too impressive this year especially last week when he missed the cut. Brooks finished 5th last year in the Houston Open.

Talor Gooch (+3300) – FanDuel
- Risk 0.25 to win 8.25 Units

Gooch has been one of the stars during the PGA Tour’s fall season along with Wise. In his last four tournaments Talor Gooch has finished T11, T5, T11, and T4. He ranks 6th on Tour in SG: Around the Green and Approach the Green. Gooch is has also bee great off the tee ranking 3rd in SG: Tee to Green and 8th in SG: Total. He’s not one of the longest players on tour but does rank within the Top 75 for Driving Distance. Given Talor Gooch’s form and how he’s striking the ball I like him to capture his first PGA Tour victory here. In the 2020 Houston Open, he finished 4th.

Maverick McNealy (+4000) – FanDuel
- Risk 0.20 to win 8.00 Units

Just like Gooch, Maverick McNealy enters the Houston Open in great form. He’s coming off a T11 at the WWT Championship and a T25 finish a the Zozo. Early in the PGA Tour Fall Season, he finished 2nd at the Fortinet Championship. He currently ranks 20th in SG: Total, 29th in SG: Off the Tee, 32nd in SG: Tee to Green, and 46th in SG: Around the Green. He’s also within the Top 50 of Driving Distance so he does have a slight advantage over the field. Overall, at 40-1 he fits the course extremely well and has a great shot here. Last year he finished 20th in this tournament.

Taylor Pendrith (+12000) – FanDuel
- Risk 0.07 to win 8.40 Units

Looks like its the week of the Talor/Taylor’s at the Houston Open for me. Pendrith caught me eye this week due to his ability off the tee. He ranks 20th in SG: Off the Tee and 20th in Driving Distance. This will be his first time competing in this event but has played well as of late besides last week at Mayakoba. He’s a longshot for sure but his distance will allow him to compete this week and give him an advantage over most of the field.

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.11 Units

Picks (Top 20):