*CBB(1.5u): Virginia Tech ML(-115) @ NC State–6 PM CT
Virginia Tech being a 1/1.5 point favorite against this Wolfpack team is laughable for many reasons. NC State is just 2-5 in conference play thanks to a defense that is allowing 78.5 PPG over those 7 games and is ranked a whopping 196th in defensive efficiency according to KenPom. Virginia Tech can be very reliant on the 3, but they also shoot over 39% from beyond the arc(top 10 in CBB), so why wouldn’t they be? These teams actually played back on January 4th, with NC State squeaking out a 5 point win in Blacksburg. However, it’s worth noting that Virginia Tech was off a 2 week pause in their schedule that saw 2 games get postponed. This Hokies team is much better than their 9-7 record indicates; the worse of these 2 teams will not sweep this regular season series. I like the moneyline in this matchup up to -125, though -120(or less) should be widely available.
*CBB(1u): Creighton -3.5(-110) vs St John’s–6 PM CT
Creighton has had a wacky month schedule-wise. Since December 17th, this team has only played 3 games; prior to their game at Xavier this past Saturday, they hadn’t played in 10 days. Losing 80-73 at Xavier is nothing to hold your head about, and in all reality, if Creighton doesn’t turn the ball over 21 times, they actually probably win that game. In any case, the Bluejays will be back in their home arena tonight for the first time since December 17th; expect a great atmosphere in this one. St John’s is a streaky team that likes to push the pace offensively, but they also average about 14 turnovers/game(238th in CBB). Additionally, the Johnnies are vulnerable defensively, ranking outside of the Top 100 in defensive efficiency according to KenPom. I can trust Creighton much more than St John’s, and given the circumstances, I’ll lay the short number with the more complete team tonight.
*CBB(1u): Mavericks -3.5(-110) vs Raptors–7:40 PM CT
This will be the 4th straight road game for Toronto, and with the way they’ve approached this road trip, I think fatigue will start to become a huge factor. Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam have played over 40 minutes in each of the first 3 games of this road trip; while I respect Nick Nurse for taking the regular season seriously, it does put Toronto behind the 8 ball as they get deeper into their road trip and play more rested teams. This will be Dallas’ 3rd straight home game, and while they narrowly squeaked out a win against the Thunder on Monday, this Mavs team is still scorching hot(9-1 over their last 10). The Mavs are playing the best defense in the NBA over the past 3 games and are top 5 in that category throughout this season; meanwhile, the Raptors rank in the bottom half in both offensive and defensive efficiency over their past 3 games. I like this spot for the Mavericks given the Raptors’ travel and rest disadvantages, so I’ll keep riding the wave with this Dallas squad tonight.
