*CBB(1u): Rutgers/Minnesota UNDER 131.5(-110)–11 AM CT
Both Rutgers and Minnesota move at a very slow pace(Rutgers 252nd, Minnesota 279th), and with the way these teams match up, I have a hard time seeing many points in this one. Rutgers boasts a Top 30 defense in the country that is coming off a performance where they allowed just 46 to points to a high flying Iowa team. Minnesota’s offense barely cracks the Top 100 in offensive efficiency, but they Gophers play a solid brand of defense as well(75th in defensive efficiency). Rutgers has arguably the worst offense in the Power 5, averaging just 55 PPG over their last 3. The public has steamed this total up a full 2 points, which gives us the perfect opportunity to get a better number and play this one Under the total.
*CBB(1u): Auburn -4(-110) vs Kentucky–Noon PM CT
I bet against Kentucky the other night when they traveled to Texas A&M, and I’ll do the same here. Put simply, I am not sold that this team has what it takes to play their “A” game in road conference games. This is a tough spot for the Wildcats being their second road game in the span of 4 days. Not only will Auburn have a sold out crowd behind them, but this Tigers team(17-1) is just a tick better than Kentucky in my mind. Specifically, Auburn boasts a Top 10 defense and Top 15 offense and likes to push the floor when the opportunity presents itself. Kentucky is equally as good offensively, but I don’t trust them to execute in the halfcourt in this type of environment. I’d bet Auburn up to 4.5 in this one.
*CBB(1u): North Carolina/Wake Forest OVER 150.5(-110)–7 PM CT
North Carolina is a team that is built to find themselves in a lot of high-scoring games. The Tar Heels sport a really efficient offense and rank 49th in tempo, but their defense can be dreadful. That was evident against Miami this week, where they yielded an ugly 85 points to the ‘Canes. Things won’t get any easier today facing a similar up-tempo offense that shoots the basketball lights out at home. KenPom has the Wake Forest defense ranked at #49, but I push back against that a little bit. They’ve played Virginia and Georgia Tech over their past 2 games, which does anything but equip them to get stops against this Tar Heel attack. Given the high possession nature of this game, I still think this relatively high total is too low. I could see each team reaching the 80 point mark in this one, making the Over the obvious play.
*CBB ML Parlay(0.8u): Texas, Iowa State, Arkansas(+111)–1 PM CT
Texas is in a true “backs against the wall” spot here coming off 2 straight losses. They played Oklahoma State 2 weeks ago in Stillwater, losing with an offensive collapse late. Texas can always rely on their defense, and I’m just not all that high on Oklahoma State. I think Texas gets back in the win column and enacts some revenge on OK State today.
Iowa State has been a totally different team at home this season and will welcome one of the easier draws in the Big12 today. This is TCU’s second straight road game after losing a high-energy game at OK State on Wednesday. While the Horned Frogs play pretty solid defense, their offense is averaging less than 60 PPG in conference play this season. Iowa State is even better defensively and are a complete different offense in their home arena. I think the Cyclones get it done in front of their home crowd.
I have discussed Texas A&M on my podcast. Even though I backed them against Kentucky this week, I see them losing in convincing fashion to both Arkansas and LSU over their next 2 games. Arkansas hasn’t quite lived up to expectations this season, but I have a hard time seeing them lose this one.
