*CBB(1u): Arkansas -4(-110) @ Ole Miss–6 PM CT
Ole Miss picked up a surprising blowout win against Florida on Monday, but I’m not expecting them to follow it up with a good performance tonight. The Rebels are a total hit-or-miss team; for example, they played Auburn very close a few weeks ago only to lose to Missouri by 25 the next game out. Arkansas is a team that finds itself squarely on the bubble, but the Razorbacks have responded well to that. After starting conference play 0-3, Arkansas has rattled off 4 straight wins, including a road win @ LSU. This line insinuates Ole Miss will put up back-to-back good efforts, which is something I will never buy in to.
*CBB(1u): SMU/South Florida UNDER 134(-110)–6 PM CT
South Florida is about as clear of an “Under” style team as you’ll find in this sport. The Bulls come in at a horrid 323rd in offensive efficiency and pair that with one of the slowest tempos in the country. However, South Florida is able to stay competitive because they sport the 63rd ranked defense and limit opponent’s possessions. SMU beat South Florida 77-63 earlier in the season, but the Mustangs also shot 51% from the floor in that game; I wouldn’t count on that happening tonight. While SMU’s offense is pretty good, they don’t push the floor enough to make me think they’ll counteract the snail’s pace tempo that USF likes to go at. I like this Under and think South Florida will dictate how this game is played.
*CBB(1u): Miami/Virginia Tech OVER 135.5–6 PM CT
Virginia Tech has the ability to be a really good offense because they shoot nearly 39% from 3-point range, but the Hokies limit themselves by going at such a slow tempo. However, coming off of 2 straight losses and currently sitting at 10-9, I wonder if Mike Young will start to take the training wheels off and start letting his boys run. Miami certainly likes to get at it on the offensive end of the floor and are very efficient in doing so(#21 in offensive efficiency). Miami’s defense, however, ranks just 152nd in defensive efficiency and shouldn’t present much of a threat to this Virginia Tech attack. I like this play even if Virginia Tech doesn’t push the pace, but I have a sneaky feeling this one becomes a track meet.
*CBB(1u): Oklahoma +2(-110) @ West Virginia–7 PM CT
Oklahoma might be 12-7 and 2-5 in conference play, but this is a team I’m looking to buy low on. The Sooners have endured an absolutely brutal schedule, playing Baylor twice, Kansas, and Texas in their past 5 games. With Auburn on the horizon on Saturday, this feels like a must-win game for Porter Mozier’s bunch. However, I think is a much easier machup for Oklahoma than you might think. Unlike OU, West Virginia has been uncompetitive against the upper echelon in the Big 12 and have only beat Kansas State(before they got hot) and Oklahoma State in conference play. The Mountaineers barely crack the Top 100 in offensive efficiency, and most of the conference has seemed to figure out their usually-solid defense. KenPom actually has Oklahoma rated 13 spots higher than this West Virginia team, and I’d tend to agree. I like OU to pick up a massive road conference win tonight, but I’ll take the 2 points as insurance.
