*CBB(1.5u): Georgia Tech +3(-110) vs Miami–11 AM CT
Miami just picked up a thrilling road victory on a buzzer-beater at Virginia Tech, but having to turn right back around and play another road conference game in the same week. Georgia Tech is just 9-10 and doesn’t have great overall numbers this season, but this team is starting to play its best basketball. They just knocked off Florida State at home with a rather convincing 75-61 win and will face a Miami defense that ranks just 169th in efficiency on that end of the floor. I know Miami has picked up some big wins in conference play, but that defense is going to plague them down the stretch of this season. I like Josh Pastner and the Yellow Jackets to pull off the home upset against a vulnerable team in a bad spot. P.S: I love that 93% of the tickets are on Miami and the line hasn’t seemed to budge.
*CBB(1u): La Salle +15(-110) @ Davidson–11 AM CT
Davidson has had a very good season up to this point, but they haven’t exactly blown some of the lower-level A10 teams out up to this point. They beat UMASS by 10 at home and squeaked by lowly Fordham with just a 3-point win. This is also somewhat of a sandwich spot for the Wildcats having just played VCU and with a road game at St. Bonaventure on tap this coming Tuesday. La Salle is not a great team, but aside from the VCU game 3 weeks ago, they’ve been competitive in every other A10 game. Davidson ranks just 180th in defensive efficiency which leaves them vulnerable to teams like La Salle keeping games closer than they should be. With the situation and matchup considered, this is too many points.
*CBB(1u): West Virginia +8.5(-110) @ Arkansas–1 PM CT
I think the public sentiment on Arkansas has gotten far too high. While they are off of 5 straight wins, their only marquee win in that stretch was @ LSU. While that’s impressive, this is still a team that’s not too far removed from losing to Hofstra and Vanderbilt. This is not one of Bob Huggins’ better West Virginia teams, but they are certainly better than this spread would indicate. They’ve run into a buzz saw stretch in their Big 12 schedule, but Arkansas is a little more sloppy and vulnerable than most of the teams they’ve played in conference play. This is a good “buy low” spot for West Virginia as well as a “sell high” on Arkansas. I sprinkled just a little bit on the ML as well.
*CBB(1u): Maryland +1.5(-110) vs Indiana–1:30 PM CT
Indiana is just 1-4 straight-up this season, with their only win coming against 6-14 Nebraska. While the Hoosiers play solid defense, their offense has a tendency to go into lulls(#73 in offensive efficiency). This has been a turbulent season for Maryland due to some coaching shake ups, but this team is clearly better than their 11-9 record would indicate. The Terps come into this game off of 2 convincing wins, including a 16 point blowout against Illinois last Friday. Indiana has given me no reason to trust them on the road, while Maryland seems to be playing their best basketball at the moment.
*CBB(1u): Kansas State ML(-117) @ Ole Miss–3 PM CT
This line is just incorrect, plain and simple. Kansas State has beaten the likes of Texas Tech and Texas in conference play this season, while Ole Miss has been mostly inconsistent. The Big 12 is obviously a juggernaut this season that is lauded with teams who play great defense, so this K-State team should have an easier time facing just the 122nd ranked team according to KenPom. The Rebels’ defense isn’t horrible, but their offense ranks just 194th in efficiency and shows no urgency to push the pace. I made this line 3 even with the home-court advantage tied in, so I think we’re getting quite a bit of value on Kansas State here.
*CBB(1u): Baylor -3(-110) @ Alabama–3 PM CT
There is no reason this line should be this short. While something does smell fishy, I’m willing to walk into this trap with my 2nd ranked team in the country. A few weeks ago, Baylor hit a wall; however, over their last 3 games, they’ve won by an average of 16 PPG. The time to fade Baylor has passed for now. While Alabama plays an exciting brand of offense, the Crimson Tide are very vulnerable on the defensive end of the floor in comparison to Baylor, ranking just 64th in defensive efficiency. Also, their desire to push the pace leaves the door open for more sloppy play, something they just can’t have in this type of game. I would understand the case for Alabama if these teams had played a few weeks ago, but this line is too short. I like Baylor to get the job done today.
*CBB(1u): Baylor/Alabama OVER 150.5(-110)–3 PM CT
Building off the analysis above, Baylor should be able to score at will against a vulnerable defense, especially considering the Bears see stout defenses virtually every night in the Big 12. I think Nate Oates understands that the only path for Alabama to win is to turn this thing into a track meet; Oates seems to approach all “big” games with this attitude. I think this total is substantially short.
*CBB(1u): Notre Dame -3(-110) vs Virginia–5 PM CT
While Virginia can take advantage of poor offensive play from their opponents, the Cavs(12-8) really struggle to keep up with even decent offenses. Notre Dame enters this matchup ranked 36th in offensive efficiency, while Virginia surprisingly ranks outside of the Top 100 in defensive efficiency. However, a bigger reason Virginia struggles in higher-scoring games is because they run at the slowest pace in College Basketball and pairs that with just the 86th most efficient offense. Tony Bennett seems to have little urgency to change his style, but I think it will bite him in this type of matchup once again. I like the Irish at home tonight.
*CBB ML Parlay(0.8u): Auburn, Saint Louis, Texas Tech(+120)–1 PM CT
