Despite dropping my multiunit play last night, we managed to finish 2-1, +0.43u on the night. That brings my 2022 MLB record to 101-96-3, +1.99u. There are some really good matchups on today’s slate, but I kept it simple and am rolling with just 1 play for tonight. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Marlins F5 -0.5(-115) vs Pirates–5:40 PM CT
Marlins SP Pablo Lopez has blossomed into an All Star and potentially Cy Young caliber arm right before our eyes. He holds a sub-3.00 ERA and a WHIP just above 1.00 on the season; at home, that WHIP drops to 0.98 with a brilliant ERA at 2.41. He delivered 5 innings of 1 run ball in a tough road start against the Mets his last time out, and today presents a much more favorable opponent. Facing righties on the road this year, the Pirates rank a measly 26th in the league with a 78 wRC+. While the Pirates lineup has fared better here in July than they did at many other parts of the season, this is still a lineup that is going to be undermanned when facing an arm like Lopez. In just this month alone, the Pirates have been held to 0-1 runs on 3 separate occasions.
Pirates SP JT Brubaker is a pretty easy guy to go against considering he holds a WHIP at 1.47. I’d argue that he’s gotten lucky to skate by with a 4.34 ERA despite flirting with more trouble. In any case, Brubaker has always struggled away from PNC Park. Last year, he held a 6.78 ERA and 1.46 WHIP away from home, and his WHIP actually jumps to 1.48 on the road here in 2022. The Marlins’ lineup is not in great current form, and a large part of that is due to being without 2 key bats in Jazz Chisholm and Jorge Soler. With that said, I deem this the most favorable matchup they’ve been dealt in this series, and this is a role they’ve actually excelled in throughout the year. Facing righties at home, the Marlins rank 3rd in the league with a 120 wRC+.
I don’t think this number does this pitching mismatch justice. Pablo Lopez has excelled at an even greater level at home, while Brubaker has consistently been shelled on the road.
