Coming off a 1-0 night, I sit at +12.19u over the last 39 days. I’m rolling with my highest volume card of the season tonight looking to start the weekend off strong! To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group.
*MLB(1u): Phillies/Nationals OVER 11(-110)–12:05 PM CT
The Nationals pitching staff has been an absolute disaster this week(we’ve taken advantage twice), and I expect that to continue today. Nats SP Joan Adon is a AAA caliber arm and is only making this start out of necessity for today’s doubleheader. In 12 big league starts this year, all Adon has done is put up an ugly 6.95 ERA and 1.76 WHIP and is walking over 5.5 batters per 9 innings. The Phillies teed off on this staff yesterday, and today will be even more favorable considering there is a strong wind blowing upwards of 15 mph out to RF. Over the past 2-3 weeks, we’ve seen this offense really turn a corner. On the other side of things, however, I’ve not been impressed with what I’ve seen from Phillies SP Ranger Suarez. After a great 2021, we’ve seen his walks spike up while his strikeouts have plummeted; it’s not hard to see why Suarez holds a 1.50 WHIP this deep into the season. The Nationals offense is pretty mediocre, but they have really gotten after left-handed pitching as of late. In a 2 game stretch against the Brewers last weekend, the Nats put up 14 runs in a 2 day stretch off of Aaron Ashby and Eric Lauer alone; they will also have the wind at their advantage today. As a bonus, these are two horrible bullpens; as much as I’ve talked down on Washington’s bullpen recently, the Phillies actually have a worse bullpen WHIP this season. I expect this game to soar over the total.
*MLB(1u): Orioles F5 TT OVER 1.5(-135) vs Rays–5:05 PM CT
Rays SP Shane Baz is a great young prospect, but he is far too early in his career for the oddsmakers to value him so highly. Baz struggled mightily with his command in his season debut last weekend in Minnesota, and this will be just his 5th career start in the big leagues. This number also completely neglects the Orioles’ current form; the O’s have scored 22 runs over their last 3 games, all on the road in Toronto. Yesterday, the Orioles tallied 7 runs off of Blue Jays ace Kevin Gausman, a power righty who was at one point looking like this year’s AL Cy Young. When you also consider the wind will be blowing out 16 mph to right-center tonight, this is simply the wrong number.
*MB(1u): Reds F5 TT OVER 2.5(-105)–5:40 PM CT
The Reds looked destined for a historically bad season after a 3-22 start, but over the last month-and-a-half, they sit above the .500 mark. In particular, this team has really figured out how to hit lefties in their home ballpark, holding the 2nd best OPS in the league in that spot. Brewers SP Eric Lauer is a power lefty arm, but he got obliterated in his last start in Washington; his 1.20 WHIP is proof that he’s more than beatable. When I see a team with an .883 OPS in any role this deep into the season, I don’t take that lightly. A wind blowing out 13 mph to RCF will also not hurt the Reds’ chances to get after Lauer tonight.
*MLB(1u): Yankees/Blue Jays OVER 9(-115)–6:07 PM CT
This is perhaps the most egregious total on the board today. The wind will be blowing out upwards of 20(!) mph to LF in Toronto tonight, yet this total has barely adjusted. Given it will be a beautiful 72 degrees and sunny in Toronto tonight, the roof will almost certainly be open. Both SP’s(Jordan Montgomery and Ross Stripling) have had really good starts to the season, but I don’t think either is sustainable. Montgomery will face the tall task of facing a Blue Jays lineup that is averaging 6.5 runs/game here in the month of June. On the other side, Stripling has had trouble with allowing the long ball throughout his entire career and has to face the mighty Yankees in these conditions. Toronto’s bullpen is very hit-or-miss and can’t be trusted when stepping up in competition. The Yankees bullpen has been rock solid this year, but they have needed each of their back-end arms in bulk over the past 3 days. With these conditions in mind, I think we see an absolute slugfest between two of the most high-powered offenses in the league.
*MLB(1u): Padres/Rockies OVER 12.5(-120)–7:40 PM CT
Each of these SP’s find themselves in a tough role tonight facing the same lineup for the second straight time. Rockies SP Kyle Freeland has always been vulnerable pitching at Coors Field, and now he will have to face a Padres lineup that has scored 37 runs over their last 3 games(that is not a typo). While the Rockies have struggled against right-handed pitching this season, they rank 5th in OPS vs lefties away from their home ballpark. The Rockies also have a bottom 5 bullpen in the league. Padres SP Mackenzie Gore has a bright future in San Diego, but the Rockies tagged him for 6 ER in Petco Park last weekend. Now, the rookie will have to make his first ever start in Coors Field facing that exact same lineup. The Rockies have been steady against lefties all season and at the very least should get after Gore for a few runs. While the Padres bullpen has been effective this season, I have my doubts as to a) that will continue to remain true, and b) if that will translate to the unique environment of Coors Field. The oddsmakers are telling you a pretty good story by setting a total at 12.5. When you consider that “wraparound” matchup angle for each starter, I think each offense names their number.
*MLB(0.71u): White Sox F5 ML(+140) @ Astros–7:10 PM CT
Astros SP Framber Valdez has yet to settle into pitching at Minute Maid Park. Valdez held a 1.37 WHIP at home last year and walked nearly 5 batters/9 innings. This year, he holds similar numbers at home(4.15 ERA, 1.45 WHIP). The White Sox have been an overall disappointment this year, but the one constant with this team is that they mash left-handed pitching(1st in the league in OPS vs lefties). They also enter this game in good current form after scoring 27 runs in their 3 game set in Detroit earlier this week. White Sox SP Lucas Giolito has dealt with some setbacks this year and thus has had his struggles. Still, Giolito is an All Star caliber arm that has had great success on the road throughout his career; I expect him to settle in throughout the summer. The Astros offense continues to be a very mediocre unit; on the season, they rank just 20th in OPS vs righties in their home ballpark. They will also be without SS Jeremy Pena tonight, which is a big loss considering the ‘Stros don’t have much quality depth in their lineup. I won’t risk a full unit on this, but I see enough value to take a shot with the White Sox early in this game. DO NOT PLAY THE WHITE SOX FULL GAME.
