Kentucky Downs Preview & Picks – (GII) Franklin-Simpson Stakes & (GII) Calumet Turf Cup Stakes

We’ll what a meet it was at Saratoga, there truly is no race course in the world like it. The atmosphere was absolutely electric this year especially with fans returning. The NYRA circuit will head to Belmont next week for the fall meet but until then we head to Kentucky Downs where we have a solid day of racing this weekend.

Some terrible news that just came out is that star Jockey Jose Ortiz will be out the rest of the Kentucky Downs meet with COVID-19.

I’ll be breaking down the two G2 Stakes Races that take place on Saturday.

The Calumet Turf Cup Stakes is carded as Race 9 and the Franklin-Simpson Stakes is carded as Race 10 on Saturday’s 11-race program at Saratoga Race Course. The first post is 12:20 p.m. EDT.

Other notable races on Saturday at Kentucky Downs:

• Race 6: G3 Mint Ladies Sprint (2:57 PM ET)
• Race 7: G3 Kentucky Downs Ladies Turf (3:34 PM ET)
• Race 8: G3 FanDuel Kentucky Downs Turf Sprint (4:09 PM ET)

Looking at the forecast, it looks to have no rain in sight so they should stay on the turf. The A/E will only run if we have some early scratches. All of my picks, do not include any A/E horses.

Calumet Turf Cup Stakes

Race Information:

• Track: Kentucky Downs (Franklin, Kentucky)
• Event Grade: Grade II
• Race: 9
• Post Time: 4:44 PM
• Length: 1 1/2 Miles
• Purse: $1,000,000
• Division: Open | 3 Years Old & Up
• Surface: Turf
• Wagers: Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / Superfecta / Double / $0.50 Pick 3 (Races 9-10-11)

Field:

#	PP		Horse / Sire	Trainer / Jockey		ML
	1		Imperador (ARG) Treasure Beach (GB)	Paulo H. Lobo Joseph Talamo		15/1
	2		Crossfirehurricane Kitten’s Joy	Michael W. McCarthy Flavien Prat		20/1
	3		Channel Cat English Channel	Jack Sisterson John R. Velazquez		9/2
	4		Tide of the Sea English Channel	Michael J. Maker Luis Saez		6/1
	5		Arklow Arch	Brad H. Cox Florent Geroux		3/1
	6		Bluegrass Parkway Quality Road	Michael J. Maker Julien R. Leparoux		20/1
	7		Fantasioso (ARG) Strategic Prince (GB)	Ignacio Correas, IV Umberto Rispoli		12/1
	8		Ajourneytofreedom Hard Spun	Michael J. Maker Irad Ortiz, Jr.		10/1
	9		Glynn County Kitten’s Joy	Michael J. Maker Tyler Gaffalione		15/1
	10		Epic Bromance Kitten’s Joy	J. Kent Sweezey Joe Bravo		15/1
	11		Zulu Alpha Street Cry (IRE)	Michael J. Maker Ricardo Santana, Jr.		6/1
	12		Breakpoint (CHI) Constitution	Steven M. Asmussen Jose L. Ortiz		20/1
	13		Big Dreaming Declaration of War	Wayne M. Catalano Corey J. Lanerie	(Also-eligible)	20/1
	14		Artemus Eagle Wicked Strong	Waylon Cundiff Chase Miller	(Also-eligible)	30/1
	15		Dynadrive Temple City	Michael J. Maker Jose L. Ortiz	(Also-eligible)	20/1
	16		Time for Trouble English Channel	Jeff A. Hiles John McKee	(Also-eligible)	30/1

Horse Preview:

CHANNEL CAT’s last win comes back in May of this year in the G1 Man O’ War Stakes. After that win, he races twice. He followed up the Man O’ War win with a 7th place finish in the G1 Manhattan where he was tired. After that, he raced just three weeks later in the G2 Bowling Green Stakes to run 4th. He comes into this race off a layoff of a little over a month so he should have had some time to rest. He’s lengthened out here to a mile and a half, a distance that I think will benefit him given his past races.

TIDE OF THE SEA lost to the 20-1 BLUEGRASS PARKWAY in his last race the KY Downs TVG Preview Turf Cup Stakes. He ran 4th in that contest he set the pace early but gave in around the eighth pole and yielded. In the race prior, he ran at a distance at a mile and a half and finished second. He seems to enjoy this distance based off his previous finishes at a mile and a half. His last win was back in January of this year, but has run some decent speed figures in his last two races.

ARKLOW is the horse to beat in this race. In his last two races, he hasn’t been at his best but we’ll see if he can turn it around here. Two races ago, in the G1 United Nation Stakes he stumbled out of the gate to run 6th. In his most recent race, he ran 7th in the G2 Del Mar Handicap. Prior to those two races, he won the G2 Hollywood Turf Cup Stakes and the G3 Louisville Stakes. He’ll go back to a mile and a half where he has won his past three of four races at that distance. His last time at Kentucky Downs, he won the G3 Kentucky Downs Turf Cup.

AJOURNEYTOFREEDOM is horse that I don’t think will win this race, but has a solid probability of finishing inside the money. He lost to ARKLOW earlier this year in the G3 Louisville Stakes where he ran 4th. This horse has shown some real speed in his races earlier this year but didn’t have a great trip out in his last race. He seems to enjoy this distance so he should be in contention down the stretch.

ZULU ALPHA has only races twice this year, and hasn’t had great trips out in either race. His last win comes back in 2020, which was at this distance of a mile and a half. This 8 year old may have officially crossed the hill with his better days behind him. Unless he can recapture his form from last year, I don’t think he’ll be competitive in this race.

BLUEGRASS PARKWAY is a horse that seems to be coming into his own at five years old. He’s ran his two best speed figures his last two races and upset the field in the KY Downs TVG Preview Turf Cup Stakes his last out. He takes a step up in class here but has proven he can hang with some of these horses as he beat TIDE OF SEA last race. We’ll see if he can continue improving to make a run at the winner’s circle.

Other horses that should be interesting in this race include FANTASIOSO and GLYNN COUNTY.

Race Preview:

The early speed in this race will come from TIDE OF SEA, EPIC BROMANCE, and CHANNEL CAT who will set the pace. From there the rest of the pack will settle in, with the favorite ARKLOW closer to the back of the field. ZULU ALPHA will be a horse that settles off the pace with Joe Bravo looking to set him up to make a run down the stretch. ARKLOW will make a move late down the stretch with the rest of the field looking to hold him off.

If CHANNEL CAT is able to push the pace early, I’m not sure that anyone will be able to catch him. The key for the other contenders will be to try and stay within striking distance of him.

Picks:

WIN: (3) CHANNEL CAT 

EXACTA: 3/ 4, 5, 6, 8

Calumet Turf Cup Stakes

Race Information:

• Track: Kentucky Downs (Franklin, Kentucky)
• Event Grade: Grade II
• Race: 10
• Post Time: 5:18 PM
• Length: 6 1/2 Furlongs
• Purse: $600,000
• Division: Open | 3 Years Olds
• Surface: Turf
• Wagers: Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / Superfecta / Double / $0.50 Pick 3 (Races 9-10-11)

Field:

#	PP		Horse / Sire	Trainer / Jockey		ML
	1		Into the Sunrise Into Mischief	Wesley A. Ward Irad Ortiz, Jr.		12/1
	2		The Lir Jet (IRE) Prince of Lir (IRE)	Brendan P. Walsh Tyler Gaffalione		12/1
	3		County Final Oxbow	Steven M. Asmussen Joel Rosario		8/1
	4		Easy Time Not This Time	Mark E. Casse Adam Beschizza		15/1
	5		Miss Amulet (IRE) Sir Prancealot (IRE)	Ken J. Condon Julien R. Leparoux		15/1
	6		Next Not This Time	Wesley A. Ward John R. Velazquez		5/1
	7		Annex Constitution	William I. Mott Junior Alvarado		9/2
	8		Tango Tango Tango Tourist	Jack Sisterson Declan Cannon		20/1
	9		Omaha City Temple City	Mohamed Jehaludi Victor Lebron		20/1
	10		Point Me By Point of Entry	Eddie Kenneally Luis Saez		7/2
	11		Bodenheimer Atta Boy Roy	Valorie Lund Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr.		12/1
	12		King of Miami American Pharoah	Larry Rivelli Florent Geroux		20/1
	13		Fauci Malibu Moon	Philip Antonacci Ricardo Santana, Jr.	(Also-eligible)	8/1
	14		Momos Distorted Humor	Michael J. Trombetta Tyler Gaffalione	(Also-eligible)	8/1
	15		Bob’s Edge Competitive Edge	J. Larry Jones Adam Beschizza	(Also-eligible)	20/1

Horse Preview:

COUNTRY FINAL ran a solid race his last out to rally and run 2nd after he was bumped at the start. This was his only start in 2021 but competed in some pretty big races last year. He ran in the G2 Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint and finished 6th. I’m not sure this gelding will win but he should be competitive. Joel Rosario will get the mount with his last time on him coming back in the G2 Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint.

NEXT will drop down in distance after racing his previous five races at a mile or greater. His last 6 1/2 Furlong sprint was at Kentucky Downs where he won. In his last race out he finished 4th in the G2 Hall of Fame Stakes where fellow entrant ANNEX ran 2nd. John Velasquez will stay on him. The drop is distance is the biggest thing for this horse, he’s had success in the past but will face tougher competition.

ANNEX is another horse that will take a drop down in distance. This colt has never run at this distance before so I’m really sure why they have entered him in this race. He’s struggled his past three races so that may be why. It’s hard to guess how this horse will handle this change in distance, it may be the change he needs to get back in the winner’s circle. The odds clearly reflect that this change in distance is a positive one. His last two workouts at a distance of 4F were encouraging so that may have also sparked the change.

POINT ME BY is the morning line favorite in this race due to his impressive record. This three year old colt only has three starts in his career but has won two of those. He won his first race in a 5 1/2 Furlong Sprint back in June. His last race was at a mile where he won the G1 Bruce D Stakes at Arlington. This horse is very impressive in his short career and will go back to a shorter distance. Looking at his speed figures from the last race, I’m not sure any horse in this race will beat him.

Other horses that should be interesting in this race include INTO THE SUNRISE, TANGO TANGO TANGO, and MISS AMULET.

Race Preview:

The pace setters in this race will be INTO THE SUNRISE, NEXT, and TANGO TANGO TANGO. There goal will be to try and push the pace to get as large of a lead as possible to prevent POINT BY ME from closing on them. ANNNEX will hang off the pace but Junior Alvarado may have a different strategy given this distance is new to him. COUNTRY FINAL will also be another horse that will be off the pace.

This race features a ton of horses that drop in distance from their usual mile + but have had success at shorter distances earlier in their career. This is a really tough race to handicap. The favorite POINT BY ME has the speed figures but the distance drop as previously mentioned worries me as he’ll have less time to close. For this race I’m going to rely on early speed, which may backfire. COUNTY FINAL is used to the distance and has shown some speed her last race. If she can get out to the front, I think she’ll be able to hold off the late charge. I also like the Asmussen/ Rosario combo.

Picks:

WIN: (3) COUNTY FINAL

EXACTA: 3 / 1, 7, 8,10

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.