When you’re a handicapper out there in the over-saturated market of sports betting, it’s important to look back and reflect on what you did right and what you did wrong after a long season of wagers. In my experience that’s one way to set yourself apart from others. So, in the spirit of sharing and becoming sharper, here are some of my observations and notes that I’ll be taking with me into the 2022 NBA Season. We had a fantastic year hitting at a 58% clip but here at TheOddsBreakers, we still want more!
The Bucks aren’t going anywhere and the post-Lebron NBA: Yes indeed it’s a new NBA and as Colin Cowherd said, Giannis is driving the car and everyone else is in the back. Lebron still has plenty of gas in the tank but I’m not the only one who thinks he’s beyond his prime. The quicker turnaround into another season clearly took its toll on an aging King James and we saw the results. I’m sure the Lakers will continue to fish for more talent and I’m far from alleging that Lebron and LAL are done. That being said, it feels like the league will have to run through Milwaukee for the foreseeable future.
The one issue the Bucks always had was their #2. We were told it was Khris Middleton but time and time again, Middleton struggled in key spots and Giannis’ other supporting cast members couldn’t step up when the going got tough. Not this time. With a full playoff run against the most elite teams in the East and a championship title under their belt, is there a team in the Eastern Conference that can stop these Bucks? The 76ers are looking to modify their roster. The Heat were probably a one-hit wonder. The Hawks and Knicks are ascending but feel like they’re still missing some pieces. And the Nets, for all their fanfare, have yet to prove they can stay healthy and demonstrate consistency down the stretch. If you ask me, the East runs through Milwaukee and the NBA is now run by the two-time MVP and NBA MVP/Champion, Giannis Antetokounmpo.
When a team or player shows you who they are, believe it: Over the season we tend to create narratives in our heads and more often than not, those come into question when we’re placing a bet. Good, they should, and it’s important to play devil’s advocate on yourself. But let’s be real– most of what we observe on a day-to-day basis in the NBA doesn’t change.
Some teams seem to truly care less about defense (the Pelicans). Other teams rest players on a routine basis, even if it doesn’t seem to make sense (the Clippers, the Nets). Other teams never rest players (the Suns, the Knicks). Some players give max effort on just about every play (Jrue Holiday, Montrezl Harrel). Other guys make us question if they care about being a basketball player at all (Ben Simmons).
Some things we see in the NBA are hard to wrap our heads around, but that doesn’t mean they’re not true. Perhaps above all sports, the NBA is full of players who don’t quite understand how to handle the pressures of being a professional athlete. That’s what happens when you combine a “player’s commissioner” (Adam Silver is as soft as it gets, sorry not sorry) into an overly long season with immensely talented young men. The shit hits the fan. Don’t second guess what you’re seeing– bet on those angles.
Practice the 30/60 rule for live-betting totals: Did I come up with the term “30/60 rule?” Yes. Do I worry you’ll trademark it? Not really. It’s not rocket science, plus I have a pretty good lawyer. Insert shitty grin smiley.
What is the 30/60 rule you ask? It’s simple. When I live-bet NBA totals, I keep in mind that high scoring teams (the Bucks, Nets, Wizards etc.) usually score around 30 points per quarter. If they’re facing another high-scoring team, the line should be set between 60-65 for the first quarter and then around 230 for the entire game. If the game starts out slow, the live total (for whatever quarter they’re playing) will drop. I often take advantage of those situations and once it drops to a point where I’m comfortable it’ll easily be eclipsed, I fire away. Same goes for the first half (which is usually set around 120 for high scoring teams) and for the full game.
Conversely, if two lower scoring teams are facing each other and they start off on fire, more often than not we can anticipate that the total will end up falling way below the inflated live-line the books give you amidst all the buckets. Like any part of life, eventually all things regress to the mean (average) and it should be used to your advantage. Of course there are many other factors to consider: defensive ratings, injuries, importance of the game itself and of course– the spot. Aberrations do exist but they usually only show up in exceptional circumstances. If you still don’t understand the 30/60 rule, shoot me a DM on Twitter and I’d be happy to go over it with you.
Ignore conventional handicapping rules with NBA injuries: This may be old news but it’s worth reiterating. Typically the rule in sports handicapping is that you want the best line available– makes sense, right? Sell high, buy low– the best sports bettors make sure their analysis and angles are ahead of the books and in that preparation comes plenty of success. Play the number, not the game. Just ask our writers here at TheOddsBreakers, who took Packers bets well before the news broke that Rodgers will return to Green Bay.
But the NBA is different. I can’t tell you how many times I was locked and loaded and feeling great about a given bet, only to learn 15-30 minutes before tipoff that team A or team B will rest some of their stars. Talk about deflating. If you’re lucky, your book may allow you to pull out of your bet before the game starts, but in many cases the “injury” designations change the line too significantly for the book to allow it. Although some teams rarely have these issues (Suns, Knicks, Spurs– basically the teams with old school coaches), other teams can leave you feeling ghosted. In the strange world of NBA betting, sometimes it’s better to practice patience before placing a wager.
Anticipate more defense in the playoffs (and damn near NO defense in the regular season): It’s hard to fathom how little defense there is the modern NBA. There’s a reason why totals in Wizards and Nets and Bucks’ games often soar into the 240s at the final whistle– these guys just don’t feel like playing hardcore defense during the regular season (which has given way to ultra-fast-paced tempos, too). It’s almost as if the players’ association came to an agreement that, from here on (aka the “modern” NBA), we’ll see who can win games based solely on how accurate your team is shooting the ball, uncontested. Years from now I can see a book being written called “From 38 Feet Beyond the Arc: How the Players’ Decided Defense No Longer Matters.” No doubt it creates a more entertaining scene– who doesn’t want to see Lillard launch three-pointers from outside the arena and who doesn’t love Giannis careening himself through the front court for a hellacious slam dunk as defenders part like the Red Sea? It’s a showcase of shooting talent and athleticism; long-gone are the days of Isaiah Thomas and Charles Barkley commanding the rim with ferocity. That is, until we enter the postseason.
The NBA Finals are a great example of how defense tends to ramp up. Only game 5 eclipsed 240 points. The rest of the contests tallied 223, 226, 220, 212, and 203. And that’s between two highly efficient, high-tempo offenses who were shooting out of their minds the entire series.
The pendulum is starting to swing back to a more traditional approach, though. Teams like the Knicks and Lakers and Heat emphasize defense over offense, limiting other teams’ to way below their average output throughout the year. Maybe they weren’t part of the aforementioned agreement. Regardless, when handicapping totals, expect little defense during the season and a different version of the association once the playoffs begin.
Count on teams that have good coaching/leadership: I talked about it all year (even though I worried it could sound pretentious) and it reigned true. The most consistent teams in the NBA are the teams who have great leadership, both on the court and on the bench coaching. The Suns. The Jazz. The Lakers (with Lebron on the floor). The Knicks. The Spurs. Look at the NBA ATS trends and that much is clear. Look at how Team-USA is performing in the 2021 Olympics and it’s even more clear.
In general, the most frustrating and inconsistent teams were the ones without great leadership. The modern NBA era is about all-world talent and the Nets are the greatest example of that. Their “big 3” is nearly impossible to stop when they’re all in a flow. But their big 3 is also a highly volatile group of skill players who can’t stay healthy, can’t keep their mouths shut on social media, and often look lost when things don’t go their way on the hardwood. Steve Nash is probably an above average coach but that’s not an easy trio to manage. On-court generals tend to set their team’s attitude more than any coach is capable of doing. Just ask Chris Paul, Lebron, Giannis, Jimmy Butler or Julius Randle. Although it may be viewed as an intangible worth forgetting, don’t make the mistake of discounting veteran leadership, especially in big games. Considering their influence could make the difference between a wager won and a wager lost.
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