This line sits at USC -2, but given how much every point matters(especially in this Tournament), I’d much rather just take the Trojans to win this one outright. I’ve seen Miami be really pesky at the end of games this season, and I want to avoid a situation where we lose if USC wins a close game. 20 cents is more than reasonable to be getting 2 additional points of value.
Miami is a “sexy” team that can put up points, but they are not built to win at this point of the season. The Hurricanes are putrid defensively(157th in defensive efficiency) and rebound at one of the lowest percentages in the country on both ends of the floor. That bodes horribly considering USC is one of the tallest teams in the country that ranks 38th in offensive rebounding percentage and won’t be beaten by Miami on the defensive glass either. While Miami can shoot the 3-ball, they would much rather score around the rim. Problem is, USC uses their height to block 4.5 shots/game(43rd in CBB), meaning Miami will likely have to resort to settling for shots that are outside of their wheelhouse. If you haven’t caught my drift, small/weak teams like Miami don’t win at this point in the season. As a kicker, USC Head Coach Andy Enfield is a guy I want my money on at this time of the season. He was the mastermind behind the great Florida Gulf Coast run back in 2013, and he took this Trojans team to the Elite 8 just last season. I know Miami HC Jim Larranaga is a veteran head coach, but aside from his Cinderella run with George Mason 16 years ago, he is just 5-9 in the Tournament and has simply not taken this ‘Canes program to the next level. Miami could be pesky late in this one, but I think the battle will be too uphill for them to overcome. USC ML is the play.
*CBB(1u): Duke -18.5(-110) vs Cal State Fullerton–6:10 PM CT
I’m using very similar logic as I did with my play on Baylor today. Public sentiment is down on this Duke team after they lost in very public fashion to UNC and Virginia Tech late in the year, but that’s really irrelevant heading into this matchup. Cal State Fullerton is a bad basketball team that is inefficient in both 2pt FG% and 3pt FG% and holds an assist/turnover ratio of just 0.9. Duke’s late season losses came to teams that were playing among the best offensive basketball in the country; this is anything but that. Duke is incredibly efficient themselves in essentially every offensive statistic, and they also have some margin for error given they hold the major edge on the inside. Duke ranks 25th in average height, while CSUF ranks 255th in that same department. Duke blocks 5.5 shots/game, while the Titans barely managed to reach 2 blocks/game playing in the Big West. The rebounding edge also largely swings in Duke’s direction on both ends of the floor. I could go on-and-on, but this is a total and utter mismatch that does not garner a spread below 20. I’ll be on the Blue Devils in this one.
*CBB(1u): Seton Hall/TCU 1H UNDER 60.5(-110)–8:57 PM CT
Just like I said New Mexico St/UCONN could be the ugliest 1st Half of the Thursday slate, I feel the exact same way about this matchup. TCU plays a very stout brand of defense(24th in defensive efficiency), but my Lord is this offense just terrible. The Horned Frogs shoot just 30.4% from 3-point land(328th), 66.8% from the free-throw line(323rd), and hold a poor 0.9 assist/turnover ratio. The Horned Frogs do rack up offensive rebounds at one of the highest clips in the sport, but I believe Seton Hall has the necessary size down low to negate some of those second chance points(5th in height). Seton Hall also racks up 5.5 blocks/game(10th). With that said, Seton Hall doesn’t exactly light it up on the offensive end themselves. The Pirates turn the ball over at an equally poor rate as TCU, and this team specifically struggles in 2pt FG%. The Pirates shoot the 3-ball considerably better than TCU does, but I don’t necessarily expect that to show up early in this game as these teams feel out an unfamiliar environment in San Diego. Pace is on our side as well; TCU ranks just 244th in that department, while Seton Hall has reverted to a considerably slower pace since losing Bryce Aiken. There is way too much pointing towards an ugly 1st Half for me to lay off of this; any 1H total at or above 59.5 warrants a play here.
*CBB(1u): Seton Hall PK(-110) vs TCU–8:57 PM CT
Building off of what I said above, Seton Hall does shoot the 3-ball over 3 percentage points better than TCU, which should play a factor in this game as these teams settle in. In a pick-em type spot like this, there are 2 key factors swinging LARGELY in Seton Hall’s direction. First, the Pirates are the far more experienced team, ranking 21st in that department. TCU is a young team that ranks just 308th in continuity. Second(and certainly not least), Seton Hall shoots their free-throws at an astronomically higher rate. TCU hits their foul shots at a mere 66.8% clip, while Seton Hall is very strong in that area, making 76% of their foul shots. I’m also inclined to believe that TCU is being a bit overvalued after a few late season heroic performances at home; especially for a young team, I can’t trust them to carry that over to the West Coast tonight. Seton Hall warrants a play at this pick-em price.
