Yesterday’s Reflection: What We Learned
In a fun Friday night of hockey, we can definitely highlight some takeaways.
- It seems that Philadelphia’s power play is, well, not great. Meanwhile, the Devils have one of the most underrated penalty killing units in the league.
- Ovechkin is really, really good.
- Colorado scores more in the third period than every other team in the league except Calgary.
- The Ducks are reeling, the Sabres are better than you think, and Ovechkin is really, really good.
Yesterday, we went 3-2 on our pre-game picks for a profit of 3.45 units. Our in-game picks through twitter were a different story, but those are still being honed in. Make sure to follow (@jksportsbets) for updated information.
Alright, let’s get to it!
Today’s Slate
This one’s coming out early because one of our picks plays at 1pm Eastern. Let’s start in Ohio, where the Oilers come into town to face the Jackets. The Oilers are 1-5 in their last six road games, and 4 of those 5 losses came by at least two goals. The only win came against a Wild team that has been skidding as of late. They’re 11-20 ATS on the road this year, while the Jackets have won 3 of their last 4, including a very impressive win at home against a strong Sharks team. There’s a reason you only get +120 against the spread for the Jackets as a goal and a half favorite. Take it and add in a 3-Way ML bet for good measure – the normal money line is at -220, and for good measure. That’s a little too steep for my liking, though.
CBJ -1.5 (+120) 2units
CBJ 3-Way ML (-150) 3units
It’s become common knowledge that you can either go to the ATM or you can bet Chicago OVER; either work just as well. Crawford is back in net for the ‘Hawks for the second game since his injury, but he did not look that great in Anaheim. Now, Chicago drives up the 5 freeway for a visit to Staples Center to face the Kings who have lost the last ten games. This feels like a trap game to me, and could be a lot closer than many believe. The Kings took Tampa the distance the other day, and despite being in the cellar still seem to be playing with a lot of emotion and energy. But let’s keep trying the Chicago totals until they tell us it’s not going to work anymore. Chicago has gone over 6.5 goals in the last 13 games. Yes, thirteen in a row. Meanwhile, the Kings try and stay in games but scoring, not stopping others from scoring. Patrick Kane is playing on another level, and LA has given up at least four goals in each of their last four games, and 20 over all four. The OVER is currently only at -104 at BetOnline, so get on it quick!
CHI/LAK OVER 6.5 (-104) 3units
The next one is based more on intuition. In the last four games the Sabres are merely 2-2, but those wins came against Pittsburgh and Washington, while in both losses they were in it right to the end. The last time the Sabres went to Toronto they severely outplayed the Leafs, but couldn’t come away from Scotiabank Arena with both points. I think they’ll be looking to avenge their loss last week. I believe the market is undervaluing Buffalo and overvaluing Toronto for a variety of reasons. There’s the name-brand factor and there’s recency bias (Toronto has won a lot lately, while Buffalo is merely average). But these wins by the Leafs have been more luck than skill. Let’s through a unit on the Sabres ML and get some extra push from the odds.
BUF ML (+222) 1unit
Last, we go to Canada. Calgary has won their last seven games in a row, including convincing wins against the Penguins and the Islanders (twice). The Wild have since won four in a row, turning around a seeming endless stretch where they went 1-9 from February 1 through the 17. I don’t believe they’ve changed, though. They haven’t looked convincing in their wins, and Calgary has been unstoppable at home as of late. Also, the Flames are 13-4-1 SU against the Central, while the wild are 9-10-1 against the Pacific. The Flames won both previous meetings this year, one in snowy Minnesota and one in Calgary. Look for them to sweep the season series tonight.
CGY -1.5 (+165) 1unit
CGY 3-Way ML (-120) 3units
As always, follow me on twitter (@jksportsbets) for LIVE NHL betting advice, as well as handicapping tips and facts.
