*NBA(1u): Hawks/Pistons 1H OVER 117(-110)–6 PM CT
The Hawks are an over team through and through; this team scores at will but plays one of the worst brands of defense in the league. This is their 3rd game and 4 nights and the second game of a back-to-back. Detroit doesn’t offer much resistance defensively themselves, and with a comeback win over the Knicks(a far better defense) fresh on their mind and playoff seeding of the utmost importance, I think we get a good offensive effort from the Hawks. However, it’s hard to ignore a key stat that factors into this play. The Pistons have run at an average pace all season, but over their last 3 games, they are running at the 3rd fastest pace in the league. Consequently, all 3 of those games flew over the total. You might ask why I’m playing this 1H Over instead of the full game Over. In this 3rd in 4 spot, Atlanta consistently plays true to themselves offensively and then gets fatigued in the 2nd Half, often leading to the 1H total soaring over while the FG total stays Under. I fell victim to this a week ago when they played Charlotte, and I have learned my lesson. 1H Over is the play in this one.
*ML Parlay(0.8u): Hornets 1H, Heat(-102)–6 PM CT
The Hornets have been at home for over a week, which gives them a major advantage over the Knicks who flew into Charlotte overnight and are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. Charlotte has been a pretty reliable offense all season, but what gives me enough confidence to include them in this play is the fact that they rank 5th in defensive efficiency over their past 3 games. The Knicks are very poor offensively, and you have to wonder what they’re even playing for at the moment with hopes at a spot in the play-in tournament all but dead. Julius Randle sat last night, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this team has just woven the white flag. They blew a 4Q lead against the Hawks last night, making this a prime flat spot. While I want to fade the Knicks in this spot, Charlotte’s current form defensively ultimately is what gets me to the window here.
Miami blew a gasket the other night against a shorthanded 76ers team, but this is still the best team in the Eastern Conference that has been known to bounce back in these spots. This will be a revenge game for Miami that garners their full attention, and they’ll have the benefit of not having to face off with Steph Curry. Since Curry’s injury, the Warriors are 0-3 SU. They lost at Orlando last night, and this is also a 3rd game in 4 nights spot for them. Steve Kerr is ultra conservative in these bad rest spots, and I simply don’t think the Warriors have what it takes with the Curry injury still so fresh to step up in this spot. I’m not sure if Miami covers the 7.5 pt spread, but I feel comfortable trusting them to win this game.
