*CBB(1u): St Peter’s/Purdue OVER 133.5(-110)–6:09 PM CT
I was on the Over when Purdue played Texas(easy winner), and I’ll be on it again for the same reason. Purdue has a pair of twin towers down low that St Peter’s simply doesn’t have the height to match up with. Texas was undersized down low, and as a result, Purdue found themselves shooting an unbelievable 46 free throws. St Peter’s ranks an even worse 315th in average height, and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see the same story in this one. Not only that, but Purdue has one of the most talented guards in the country in Jaden Ivey that has the ability to take over a game at any time. Purdue hasn’t been able to get their supplemental 3-point shooters rolling in this Tournament, yet they still find themselves in the 2nd weekend. I know St Peter’s has good overall defensive metrics, but their size disadvantage creates a serious mismatch and gives Purdue a variety of different ways they can score. With all of that said, St Peter’s has found an offensive groove that I want to keep riding as well. They scored 75 in regulation vs Kentucky, and even though regressed shooting-wise vs Murray State and only hit three 3-pointers, the Peacocks still put up 70 in that game. Purdue is just not good defensively; this will be an easier matchup on that end of the floor for St Peter’s than their Murray State matchup was. Rather than take a crack at the spread in either direction, I think this Over can hit in more ways than one. If Purdue takes advantage of the height disparity to an even greater degree than we’re accounting for, the Over will undoubtedly hit. If St Peter’s keeps this within single digits, I think it comes through being able to trade scores with Purdue. Over is the play here.
CBB(1u): UCLA -2(-110) vs North Carolina–8:39 PM CT
We’re getting veteran HC Mick Cronin and a “pick-em” type spot matching up with a 1st year HC in Hubert Davis. Yes please. UCLA made the final four last year, and despite returning much of their roster, this team hasn’t been getting respect from the betting markets. St Mary’s was the “trendy” play last Saturday, and Cronin’s Bruins simply blew them out of the water. I know UCLA doesn’t play a sexy brand of basketball, but they have a lot of the key attributes I’m looking for. They rank 9th in the country in assist/turnover ratio, don’t allow many second chance points, and have one of the more experienced rosters in the country who have already proven they can win in March. North Carolina had a great first weekend, but they have been inconsistent all season. Credit them for jumping up 25 points on 1 seed Baylor; the Tar Heels offense can get HOT without a doubt. But in that game, we saw Baylor climb all the way back, partly because coach Hubert Davis did not coach his guys well down the stretch. With this game being in an unfamiliar environment and UCLA ranking 12th in defensive efficiency, I don’t think we see the same UNC offense in this one. That sparks trouble given how leaky UNC is on the defensive end of the floor; the Tar Heels can’t win games relying on getting stops. UNC is a “sexy” team, but I’m going with the better HC and proven group of players in the UCLA Bruins tonight.
