Well the first thoughts on the Podcast I did with Kiev O’Neil last Sunday night proved correct. There is no dominant team in this tournament.
Three #1 seeds survived to the Sweet 16 as Baylor went down, but Arizona should have lost and the Zags could have lost, but coaching adjustments by Mark Few who I believe is the best X’s and O’s coach in the tournament brought them back from 10 down at half. Kansas never dominated Creighton, but they got by.
On the #2 Seed line we lost Kentucky to the 3rd place team in the MAAC, startup St. Peters who made it two straight years a #15 seed has made the Sweet Sixteen. Auburn continued their putrid play away from home and fell to #10 Seed the Miami Fighting Larranaga’s. Villanova and Duke fought their way on and both got scares in the round of 32.
The #3 Seeds lost my much loved Wisconsin Badgers, who couldn’t have made a three pointer if the basket was twice as big, and my pick to win the tournament Tennessee, who ran into a very talented and healthy Michigan team who at least for two games lived up to their pre-season expectations. Tennessee scoring 8 points over the last 8 minutes did them in. Purdue and Texas Tech move on as expected with Texas Tech using a smothering defense and Purdue highly efficient offense.
The only #4 seed to go down was the other Big Ten Co-champ in Illinois who lost to a way under seeded #5 Houston squad. Arkansas and Providence who were prime picks to be upset have made it through along with UCLA. Of those three I think UCLA is the only one that could cut down the nets.
Joining the top 4 seed teams are the above mentioned #5 Seed Houston (Now at #2 overall in KenPom) #8 North Carolina, #10 Miami, #11 Iowa State, #11 Michigan, #15 St Peter’s.
I’m going to look at the games this weekend in the Midwest region being played Friday and Sunday at The United Center in Chicago.
#4 Providence vs #1 Kansas (-7.5) – O/U 141.5
Nobody believed in Providence. Less than 19% of ESPN Brackets had them in The Sweet Sixteen. My own Calcutta calculations put their chances at 23% to get here. (I had Iowa at 57%…oops) They are the luckiest team in all the country according to KenPom with only 5 losses on the record and 2 of those coming in close games to Villanova. Outside of 3 losses they’ve been in every game all year and there is something to be said about that. This is a team that creates that luck metric through senior leadership, clutch shooting, and timely defense. When you keep ending up in the same situations you learn how to deal with them, and that is what this Providence team has done.
Kansas came out of the Big 12. Duh Big deal right? Wrong. AdjEM of a Big 12 team expected to go .500 in conference play is +18.64. That’s by far the #1 conference now. In fact the gap between the Big 12 and the #2 Conference the SEC is bigger than the gap from the SEC, to the #6 conference the PAC 12. Kansas is battle tested. Coming into the tourney 13 of their last 16 opponents were in the current KenPom top 50. They went 12-4 in those games against a gauntlet of the top of the best conference in college basketball.
So what is the difference going to be in this one. If you’ve ever seen the late 1980s Louis Gossett Jr. fighter plane movie classic Iron Eagle 2, you know the phrase “Speed Kills Peaches.” Kansas has it, and Providence hasn’t impressed against it. Only 3 teams in the Big East plays as fast or faster than Kansas. St John’s, Marquette and Georgetown. Let’s take Georgetown out of the mix because well, they’re 2022 Georgetown. In the other four games Providence gave up an average of 76.5 PPG, having one good defensive effort vs Marquette. The games they won against St Johns involved Providence using a decided FT advantage to earn victories, but they allowed St John’s to score at will especially inside the arc. Kansas is much better defensively than those two up tempo teams. If Providence doesn’t knock down their 3s in order to keep up I think this one could get away from them. Kansas allows opponents to shoot 30.4% from beyond the arc and if Providence isn’t well better than that they’re in trouble. The Friars record when shooting under 30.4% from 3? 5-4.
I Lean Kansas laying the points, but just can’t pull the trigger on a side with that big of a spread in a power conference match-up in the Sweet Sixteen. I have the total at 143 so also a slight lean to the over here as well, but this one is probably just a wait and watch affair for me.
#11 Miami (-2.5) vs #10 Iowa State – O/U 133
This line has seen quite a bit of movement already with Miami going from -1 up to -2.5 and the O/U dropping from 136.5 down to 133.
I love the Nickname the Fighting Larranaga’s. Seems more fitting than saying there’s going to be a hurricane sighting in Chicago on Friday. Miami had an up and down season with some great wins and some close heartbreaking losses. They went 14-6 in conference including a win vs Duke and UNC early in January. They also lost twice to both Florida State and Virginia. Miami is great on the offensive side of the ball shooting it inside the top 20 overall in FG% on the season, but has struggled slightly on the defensive side of things.
Iowa State is a mirror image of Miami. They a great defensive team and one of the top ten defenses vs the 3. After starting 12-0 in the non-conference they went 7-11 in a very tough Big 12. While the opponents they lost to were all strong the did have some major offensive clunkers along the way that led to some awful efficiency losses. Two of those came in March with a 72-41 drubbing at the hands of Texas Tech in the Big 12 Tourney, and a 53-36 stinker vs the Pokes on March 2nd. Two solid defensive performances against Wisco and LSU in the NCAA has not made me a believer in the Cyclones. Both those teams struggled mightily shooting the ball down the stretch.
It’s a #10 vs #11 match-up so obviously both teams have flaws, but are there some things that can be exploited toward an advantage vs the line and what are they? Staying with the movies from my early childhood theme I look to the 1991 classic Necessary Roughness quote by Rob Schneider “Fumble, Fumbleaya, Fumbleruski!” On the season Iowa State ranks 12th nationally in steal % and 8th in Non-steal Turnover %. Their defensive ball pressure has caused issues for many teams. It is what led to the much of their offense over the course of the season as a lot came in transition. Miami is elite on the offensive side of those same stats at 24th offensively in not allowing steals and 6th in the country in Non Steal TO%. Quite frankly I think the way Miami’s guards were able to play the first two rounds and take care of the rock tells a story. Against USC they forced 18 turnovers and only turned it over 3 times. Versus Auburn they forced 13 and only turned it over 4 times. If Iowa State can’t get turnovers I don’t like them to repeat the defensive performance they had against Wisconsin and LSU, and I don’t like how this matchup shapes up for them. Another intangible is the Head Coaches. T.J. Otzelberger seems like a fine coach who had good success at South Dakota State and a couple less than memorable years at UNLV. He had a nice turn around this year for this Iowa State team primarily by bringing in solid talent through the transfer portal, but I can’t put him on the same level as Jim Larranaga. Jim has been a college head coach longer than I’ve been alive and he’s been here before. He took a different #11 seed George Mason to the Final Four and I could see him doing it again. He’s definitely got some Coach Gennero in him. I could see him turning to Associate Head Coach Chris Caputo and saying “Chris, Call me Crazy, but I’ve got a funny feeling about tonight’s game. Maybe we’ve got a shot.”
If you haven’t guessed by now I’m on the Miami Fighting Larranaga’s. I got it at -2 for 2.5 Units.
