We’re back for the MLB second half. Need to have a big one to turn a profit as we closed poorly before the break and are sitting -12.2 Units on MLB this season. I wanted to take a peek at my futures bets to see how we are sitting coming out of my Pre-season predictions for you all here at TheOddsbreakers.com. Speaking of futures my NFL Pre-season preview articles will start soon and my Football package will be available to subscribers right here.
So how do we look so far? Here’s the list of my Pre-season plays and where I think they come in.
Cincinnati Reds OVER 82.5 47-50. They’ll need a nice second half, but it’s possible.
San Francisco Giants UNDER 81.5 47-50. Also could go either way, but SF has easiest remaining MLB schedule
Los Angeles Dodgers UNDER 103.5 56-41. Sitting good here. They’d need to go 48-17 for me to lose.
Oakland Athletics OVER 58.5 37-61. On Pace here, but could go either way.
Tampa Bay Rays OVER 84.5 48-48. Have a chance here, but they have the hardest remaining schedule in MLB.
Baltimore Orioles OVER 90.5 58-38. I need them to play .500 over the remainder which I believe will happen.
How about we start the second half off with a winner….
My Analysis today turns to T-Mobile Park in Seattle, WA where the Seattle Mariners (52-46) will host the Houston Astros (50-46) at 10:10 ET. The current line sits with the Mariners as slight favorites at -116 (Astros -104) with an Over/Under of 7 juiced to the Over at -120. Game time temperature will be 72 degrees under partly clear skies with the wind blowing in slightly from left at roughly 8mph.
The Astros have been playing very well of late going 17-6 since June 19th and climbing back from 7 games under .500. They did have a very easy schedule in that stretch, but had both pitching and hitting working well for them.
They will start Hunter Brown on Friday night coming out of the break. Brown has a 4.39 ERA overall, but is due for some improvement with a 3.69 xFIP. He is striking out 9.61 batters per 9 innings and walking 3.48. His struggles arise when he has issues with the long ball with a career 1.31 HR/9 allowed. Across his last ten starts since May 22nd however he only has one blip on his game log where he got hammered for 7 runs against the Twins. The other 9 starts have all been QS, and he has allowed 2 runs or fewer in 8 of those outings.
The Mariners have been trending the other direction going 8-15 since June 19th and dropping from a peak of 13 games over .500. They have scored just 3.60 Runs per game during that span.
The Mariners will start ace Luis Castillo who has a 3.53 ERA with a 3.82 xFIP. He has been solid with a 8.90 K/9 and a 2.61 BB/9 and his numbers are consistent with his career norms which are excellent.
So where does my handicap fall on this game? I am looking at a couple of key metrics in making a differentiation between two very similar pitchers taking the mound tonight.
The main emphasis for me in this match-up is the offense for the Mariners. Or in reality the lack thereof. The M’s just can’t seem to put the ball in play consistently as they lead MLB in strikeouts by a considerable margin. Overall they are now 28th in runs scored in MLB, and 28th in OPS. That’s not sustainable to remain a playoff contender, no matter how good that rotation and bullpen are. They will need to find a way to add some offense at the deadline. The OPS against righties is all the way down at .664.
On the flip side Houston is up to 10th in runs scored at 4.76 runs per game. They are third in strikeouts only recording 669 so far on the season (Seattle is at 1,013). OPS is 9th overall at .740.
With the Mariners not putting the ball in play and coming off the break I like a low scoring game here, the Astros offense will have the edge and end up being the difference in this contest.
Astros -104 1 Unit
