This will be a super short write-up so I have time to write more for the NBA Finals Game 3 tonight. Locked in after a good week of MLB betting, here are my Sunday plays:
Orioles (+160), 1.5 units: This is as good an opportunity as the Orioles will get: at home, on a hot and humid day with capable bats against a hittable and declining pitcher in Chicago’s Dylan Cease (his ERA is on the rise as the season wanes on, up to 5.04 in June). Orioles upstart young gun Spenser Watkins looks like he could have the tools to have some staying power in the big leagues, too. We’ll see how many innings he can last.
Phillies (EVEN), 1 unit: I’ll take Aaron Nola (4.53 ERA, 3.71 xERA, 3.36 xFIP), who’s absolutely due for some positive regression, to show up big here today. I’m a big Nick Pivetta (4.09 ERA, 1.27 WHIP over 92.1 innings) guy too but I like the way the Philly bats have awakened lately. I’ll take the road team to eke out a W.
Braves/Marlins No Run in 1st Innings (-140), 1.4 units: This is another classic spot where two good pitchers should easily have their way in the first inning with the low-scoring Marlins and an Atlanta team now without Acuna. Or, as my luck goes, maybe we’ll get a random homerun in the bottom of the 1st with 2 outs and then these two inconsistent offenses won’t score again all game. Sounds about right. Still betting this.
Brewers (-157), 1.57 units: The Brewers are starting Brandon Woodruff, who has been sensational this year, and Luis Castillo is a fade candidate for me. These are the setups where Milwaukee stacks up wins and they’ll do it again today.
Astros (-130), 2 units: The Yankees have gotten the best of the Astros in 4 out of 5 of their battles this year and the last 2 games of this series. Not today. Framber Valdez (5-1, 2.86 ERA, 3.17 xFIP over 50.1 innings) got annihilated in his last start and I’m sure he’ll be looking for some redemption today. New York’s bats are infamously inconsistent and this feels like a good spot for them to sink back into their BS. I’m on the Astros at home to finally show-out some big offense today and secure a win against their AL rival.
