Overall a winning week in MLB as we continue to try and find value every day. Keep in mind– there’s a ton of “pro bettors” out there who love giving out mega-favorites and calling themselves handicappers. True professionals look for value and only give out ATS plays that are advantageous for you and your bankroll. That’s why you see so many + money bets in my write-ups. Even if they don’t always win, when they do hit it’s exponentially better for your finances since you’re risking less and winning more than you would on a big favorite. Sticking with that approach, here are 6 plays (3 for + money) for your Monday slate!
Reds win (-140), 1.5 units: We’re getting a reduced price on Tyler Mahle (3.23 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 3.82 FIP over 30.2 innings) and the Reds and I’ll jump on the opportunity. Cincinnati is coming off a loss to Cleveland while the Pirates edged the Cubs last night at Wrigley Field. Pittsburgh returns home with a 5-7 record at PNC Park and hopes that they can stay off the schneid for awhile. Last night’s win cracked a 3 game losing streak. The Reds sit right above the Pirates in 4th place in the stacked NL Central. Pittsburgh starts young gun Mitch Keller (6.29 ERA, 1.68 WHIP over 24.1 innings) today, who’s showed mixed results in 5 games. Allowing plenty of hits and runs in his first 4 outings, Keller had a great showing last time out against the Padres, holding them scoreless over 5.2 innings for the win. Mahle may be getting a reduced number because he was blasted last time out, giving up 9 hits and 6 runs in just 5 innings. Before that embarrassing start Mahle was sensational, holding hitters to only 3 runs and 10 hits over his first 4 games. I expect us to see that Mahle today. Pittsburgh has played well in spurts but they’re still ranked at or near the bottom in a ton of offensive categories, while the Reds are one of the best scoring and hitting lineups in baseball. I trust the Cincinnati bats and Mahle to turn in a good performance and get the win.
Orioles first 5 (+110), 1 unit and Red Sox/Orioles over 9 (-115), 1.5 units: Two separate bets. We saw what the Orioles can do against lefties and the stats speak to it: Baltimore hits, scores more runs, and has a considerably higher batting average (.272) against southpaws. The Red Sox start Martin Perez (4.40 ERA, 1.47 WHIP over 28.2 innings) today, who’s looked okay but certainly hittable, allowing 20 hits and 11 runs in his last 4 starts. The 30 year old Perez has done a good job limiting hard contact so far, allowing only 0.31 HR/9 innings, but good offensive teams find a way to get on base against him. The Orioles are not an elite offensive team just yet but against a leftie, at Camden Yards in mild temperatures and down 0-3 in this series, I expect Baltimore’s bats to be motivated and aggressive. The home team starts Jorge Lopez (6.49 ERA, 1.37 WHIP over 26.1 innings) Monday, who’s also been very hittable. He’s been trending in a good direction though, allowing only 7 hits and 3 runs in his last 2 games on the mound. There’s value on Baltimore here, at least early, and I’m sure both teams will find enough juice to push this game over. Neither starting pitcher is elite and the bullpens are tired.
Rockies win (+150), 1 unit and Padres/Rockies over 10 (-110), 2 units: Two separate bets, although it might make a good parlay, too. If we knew Dinelson Lamet (0.00 ERA, 1.50 WHIP over 4 innings) was completely healthy and ready to rock that electric right arm of his, this probably wouldn’t be a fair contest. But know that we do not. The 6’3″ 28 year old has dynamic, powerful throwing ability and if/when he’s 100%, he’ll add to an already heavy list of elite starting pitchers for San Diego. Lamet has been kept on a pitch count so far, only accounting for 2 innings in each of his 2 games this season, but the results were solid. After suffering a UCL sprain last year and already with a history of elbow injuries, it’s unclear how much usage he’ll get today. That being said, the other issue he’ll have Monday is the issue a lot of starters face when they travel to Denver– Coors field is simply a different animal. The Rockies are 10-8 straight up and averaging 5.9 runs per game at home. Last time at Coors they earned an inspired series win against the NL West leading Giants, although they just lost 3 games in a row at St. Louis. Colorado starts Anthony Senzatela (5.05 ERA, 1.44 WHIP over 29.2 innings) today, another young gun that has shown promise in spots, but he’s allowed way too many homeruns this year (1.52/9 innings) and his LOB percentage is down to 65.9%. He’ll have to maintain better command today if the Rockies have a shot in this one. He’s certainly capable of it. Based on the forecast today it’s unlikely this game will even happen (looks to be snowy/rainy and cold). If/when it does, there’s value on Colorado and I love the over.
Parlay- Giants win and Rangers/Giants under 7.5 (-115), 1 unit to win 2.16 units: Okay here’s a parlay for you. Alex Wood (1.96 ERA, 0.78 WHIP) has been sensational so far for the Giants, giving up only 18 base runners in 23 innings pitched. He experienced a little negative regression at Coors Field in his last start but who doesn’t? Even the best fall in the Mile High City. San Francisco has seen a burgeoning of offense recently but I don’t think this will be one of those games. Texas has been feisty lately too, winning 5 of their last 6 ballgames. Today’s they’ll send Kyle Gibson (2.40 ERA, 1.04 WHIP over 41.1 innings) to the mound. The 33 year old, 9 year starter has been used a ton this young season and he’s shown exceptional command. Except for an ugly showing in his first game at Kansas City, Gibson has averaged 6.8 innings per start and averaged only 1 one earned run per game. It won’t be easy for either of these offenses to get on base and points should be scarce. The Giants are 12-4 at Oracle Park and this feels like a low-scoring pitcher’s duel that we can all capitalize on for + money. Let’s hit the parlay!
