What a week it’s been! We went 3-1 yesterday, which makes us 11-3 the last three days and 17-9 overall this week. 327 picks in, we’re now over 57% and cruising into the end of the season. Let’s wrap up this week in strong fashion, shall we?
Heat/Celtics under 222.5 (-110), 1.5 units: This should be a really contentious game with a real postseason feel. The Celtics would love nothing more than to dethrone the Heat from the 6th spot in the Eastern Conference. As you probably know by now, there’s a huge difference between being the 7th and 6th seed. The 7th seed has to participate in the “play-in tournament,” which is a quick chance to be eliminated from the playoffs before they even start. The 6th seeds and better don’t face that tribulation. This is the first of a doubleheader between these teams at the TD Garden Center. Both the Celtics and the Heat come into Sunday playing really well; Boston and Miami are both 12-7 since the start of April. Lately the Celtics have been a part of some high scoring games but overall, they’ve stepped up on the defensive end of the floor. The Heat continue to win games by effective, cerebral team offense and stellar defense. Boston is ranked 11th in points allowed per game, while Miami is 4th. Boston is in the lower half of the league at 17th overall in pace while the Heat are 28th– good for one of the slowest tempos in the association. In a doubleheader this significant, on national TV and with defenses as good as these teams have, I have to trigger an under play here. I have this game closer to 214.5, so I’ll gladly jump all over this opportunity. Prayers up for no overtime!
Knicks/Clippers under 214.5 (-110), 1 unit and Knicks +7.5 (-110), 1 unit: The Knicks have been through a gauntlet the past week. We knew how tough it would be– road games against Memphis, Denver and Phoenix have led to today at the Staples Center and the Knicks are almost finished with this long stretch away from Madison Square Garden. Almost. Another game in LA against the desperate Lakers awaits Tuesday. After an impressive showing against the Grizzlies, New York has dropped two straight games. Of course these were all against elite opponents, but now the Knicks may face their biggest challenge in LAC. I actually like the way they measure up, though. The Clippers have been extremely sharp from the field. With an effective field goal percentage of 56.6% and NBA-leading 41.7% from beyond the arc, the Clippers have arguably the most talented group of shooters in the NBA not named the Nets. When Leonard and George and Morris Sr. and Jackson are all in-sync, LAC is extremely dangerous and can score with a rapid ferocity (not to mention Rondo’s help via his exceptional passing off the bench). More to come on my podcast this week but I like their chances in the playoffs. Be that as it may, the Knicks may be one of the only teams in the NBA that can match the Clippers’ intensity. The Clippers get open because they just have too much exceptional talent. Whether its Leonard or George or another player driving to the rim, they cause defenses to collapse and that leaves their elite shooters wide open. Undisciplined teams don’t have answers for the Clippers, but I think the Knicks can. LAC lost to teams like the Suns and 76ers for the same reasons that they could be challenged by New York. The Knicks don’t easily fall for tricks, even against offensive savants like Kawhi Leonard, and that should be able to slow down LAC’s attack. The only other time these two teams faced back in late January the Clippers did what they always do– outshot their opponent and kept margin all game, shooting 54.3% from the field and 44.7% from 3-point land. That was at MSG so this a revenge game for New York and doubly so considering the pride they have on defense. The Knicks also fear slipping back into the East standings, still sitting comfortable at 4th overall. I’ll take the underdog to keep this contest close. The Knicks and Clippers both play at a really slow pace and I expect the same intensity that I mentioned in the above write-up between Boston and Miami, so it’s another under play for me, too.
Mavericks -11 (-110), 2 units: It looks like Kevin Love might return in this game but that doesn’t concern me. Dallas easily beat the Cavaliers by 20 points Friday night and I don’t see why this game would look any different. If Love does play, he won’t be 100%. He’s nursing a knee issue and it’s clear his team has mailed it in for the season. The Cavaliers have lost 9 games in a row. During that stretch, they’ve lost by an average of 17.1 points. Dallas cannot afford to fall in the standings, the Blazers are creeping up on their 5th seed, and will look to gain and sustain margin today.
Lakers +7.5 if Anthony Davis plays (-110), 1 unit: I really want to play on the Lakers here as they look to escape a “play in tournament” spot but they’re very banged up. Based on reports I’m reading now, Kuzma is out, Caruso and Horton-Tucker are questionable, and Gasol and Caldwell-Pope and Davis are probable. If the Lake-show wants to avoid the tournament, the time is now. Phoenix sits comfortably and somewhat untouchably in the 2nd place spot in the West so they might not share the same motivation. They have a tough but winnable schedule in their last 5 games and really only need to win 2 games to stay in their position. We’ll see if the Lakers can muster a good performance here Sunday, they need it. Only a 1 unit play for me.
