Not a great day in baseball betting last night but we still have a winning record overall this week. I see a lot of value out there Sunday so this article will have more picks but a little less meat in between. Let’s get to it:
Tigers first five +0.5 (+135), 1 unit: Will I ever learn? Maybe not. The Tigers should have hit this bet yesterday, which I gave to my premium customers, only to blow a bases-loaded opportunity in the top of the 5th and then letting NYY get ahead with some horrible errors at the bottom of the same inning. Today I’ll keep fading Kluber (4.15 ERA over 21.2 innings) until he proves he’s back in true form.
Marlins/Nats under 3.5 (-120), 1.5 units: A little extra juice here but I say it’s worth it. Miami’s bats have been ice cold at Nationals Park, but at least the Marlins have Trevor Rogers (1.29 ERA, 1.00 WHIP over 28 innings) to come to their aid. Max Scherzer (3.00 ERA, 0.93 WHIP over 30 innings) is surely due for some redemption after that horrible showing against Toronto. I expect both pitchers to command well in the early going and keep this halfway total under.
Reds (-140), 1.4 units: I’ll side with the better home team and a much more consistent offense behind Tyler Mahle (1.75 ERA, 0.97 WHIP over 25.2 innings) here. The Cubs eked out a win yesterday thanks to a gutsy performance from their bullpen, but it won’t take a lot of offense to get a W today at Great American Ballpark with Mahle behind the mound. The Cubs offense has improved a bit, but they’re still nothing to ride home about.
Astros (-130), 2 units: Rich Hill (7.25 ERA over 22.1 innings) is better than what he’s showing and Christian Javier (0.87 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 1.74 FIP over 20.2 innings) may not be this good, but I still like Houston in this spot. The Rays are in a funk and Houston looks like the team we saw at the start of the season. I’ll ride it until shown otherwise.
Twins -1.5 (+105), 1 unit: I thought Minnesota would find their bats and Danny Duffy would take a step back yesterday but that certainly didn’t happen. This is a better spot to get a run-line in on a Minnesota team due for some positive regression on offense facing the very hittable Brad Keller (9.00 ERA over 18 innings pitched). Jose Berrios (3.04 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over 26.2 innings) has looked solid thus far, showing 0 signs of decreased velocity on his fastball and allowing very few homeruns (0.34 per 9 innings). I like this spot for a little Minnesota revenge and to take the series win at home.
Athletics first five -1.5 (+125), 1.5 units: It felt like if that game had a few more innings yesterday, Oakland would have got the win. That being said, the Orioles are a solid team and I don’t think they’ll be out of the playoff picture as the season wanes on. Baltimore’s Bruce Zimmerman (5.22 ERA, 1.58 WHIP over 25.1 innings) is probably their most hittable starter and with Sean Manaea (2.83 ERA, 1.19 WHIP over 28.2 innings) on the mound for Oakland, I like the Athletics’ momentum to leak into today’s game and give the home team an early lead by margin.
Angels -1.5 (+105), 1.5 units and Angels/Mariners over 8 (-115), 1.5 units: Two separate bets. The Angels are top 5 in the majors in a ton of offensive categories right now (and 1st in batting average, slugging percentage and hits per game) and I expect some positive regression from Dylan Bundy (4.20 ERA over 30 innings). The 28 year old is getting a bit over-utilized and he’s allowed a few too many homeruns thus far. The total bet kind of hedges the Angels run-line but I can easily see both happening. The Mariners’ Justus Sheffield (5.23 ERA over 22 innings) and the very average Seattle bullpen are nothing to fear for those white-hot LAA bats, nor will they stifle Angels’ superstar Mike Trout, who may be playing his best baseball to date.
