As usual it’s a mega card on Saturday so we’ll do this lightning style just like last time– shorter write-ups, more opportunities, more picks. Those Orioles bats got real quiet last night but we still had a winning night at 2-1 in MLB bets overall. Onto Saturday!
Nats/Yankees under 4 in first 5 (-110), 1.5 units: Corey Kluber (3.03 ERA, 1.35 WHIP over 29.2 innings) may be returning to his old form. He’s looked fantastic in his last 2 starts, allowing only 1 run over his last 14.2 innings at the mound. You could say the same thing for Max Scherzer (2.54 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and 47 strikeouts over 39 innings), who wiped the floor with the Marlins in his last start, allowing only 5 hits and 1 run over a full 9 innings. He also had 9 strikeouts. Scherzer needed that after a bad look against the Blue Jays and he’ll look to bring that same heat into the Bronx. In the first 5, I trust that these long-time aces can keep scoring low until the later innings.
Cardinals -1.5 (+105), 1 unit: It was another solid performance by Flaherty (allowing only 3 hits in 7 innings) as the Cardinals blanked the Rockies in game 1 and got us our first win Friday night. Colorado may be in for a long painful affair at Busch Stadium, where the Cardinals bats looked ready to rock behind a much more formidable rotation than what the Rockies can offer. I don’t see much changing throughout this series. Carlos Martinez (3.72 ERA, 1.02 WHIP over 36.1 innings) has been solid for St. Louis and after rough showings in his first 2 starts, he’s displayed a very steady and consistent command. Chi Chi Gonzalez (4.38 ERA, 1.46 WHIP over 24.2 innings) gets the nod for Colorado and he’s been regressing a bit as the young season trudges on. In his last 2 starts, he’s permitted 7 runs and 12 hits in just over 9 innings. I’ll take the home team for another win by margin. They’re the better team by a mile and it’ll show again Saturday.
Giants win (+125), 1 unit and Game under 7 (-105), 1 unit: Two separate bets. I love the Giants in series like this. Excellent pitching from DeSclafani and a bullpen that held up just enough gave San Francisco the edge in game 1 against their rival Padres. Joe Musgrove (2.38 ERA, 0.74 WHIP over 34 innings) takes on Kevin Gausman (2.04 ERA, 0.91 WHIP over 39.2 innings) today as two more elite pitchers vow to play deep into this contest and keep the game low scoring. Something about that NorCal air seems to agree with the hometown Giants– they’re 11-3 this year at home; they always seem to muster just enough offense to edge out good teams like San Diego. This is another value play on San Francisco and I have to side with the under.
Tigers first 5 (+150), 1 unit: This is good value on Detroit. The Tigers are not a good team and they’ve lost 8 of their last 9 contests, but they are at home against a hittable pitcher and I don’t hate what I’ve seen from Jose Urena (3.58 ERA, 1.26 WHIP over 35.2 innings). Urena has allowed 2 runs in every game he’s started so far, which isn’t bad considering he averages 7 innings per game and hasn’t allowed a single homerun. Minnesota loves to live and die by big slugs so that’s a good thing for Detroit’s chances, at least earlier in the contest. Jose Berrios (3.58 ERA, 1.01 WHIP over 32.2 innings) hasn’t impressed me this year and recently he’s looked worse, allowing 11 hits and 6 runs in his last 2 starts. Positive regression may be coming for Berrios, but this is as good a spot as any for the Tigers to take advantage of a pitching matchup where there’s not significant disparity in talent. How do you win money in sports betting? By finding value and proper unit allocation. Hence, I’m only betting 1 unit here since Minnesota is clearly the better team, but the Tigers have built-in value and it would pay handsomely.
Red Sox/Orioles over 9 (-110), 2 units: Is Garrett Richards (4.40 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 3.99 FIP over 28.2 innings) the Red Sox most confusing starter? Perhaps. He looked excellent in moments this year and very vulnerable in others. It’s hard to get a grasp on the 10 year starter at this point in his career; at 32 he could either be in his prime or starting to feel the weight of 800+ major league innings. I’ll bet that he’s hittable. In two starts against the Orioles earlier this year Richards allowed 10 hits, 8 earned runs and 2 homers. Baltimore’s bats should regain some confidence today. The Orioles are starting the young leftie Zac Lowther (25 years old, 92 mph fastball) Saturday, who in 1 inning looked pretty darn crisp against the Athletics. He played well in the minors but we don’t know too much else about Lowther. This is a big test today against arguably the best offense in baseball (Boston is 1st in runs per game, batting average, hits per game, and slugging percentage). I think there’s definitely value on Baltimore again today, but Boston is playing well so I’ll save my money and won’t pick a side. Instead I’ll lay 2 units on this total soaring over 9 runs.
Astros -1.5 (+145), 1.5 units: This feels like the time to start backing Houston again. The Blue Jays have played okay recently but they seem to always stutter when they’re at a disadvantage on the mound. There’s a clear disadvantage today. In 5 starts and 25.2 innings, young Christian Javier (1.75 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 2.53 FIP, 93.2 mph fastball) looks like he’s ready to remain a part of the Astros rotation. He’s had 3 games without giving up a run, he’s allowing only 0.35 HR/9 innings, and after a mediocre showing last time out against the Rays he’ll be even more motivated to impose his will against Toronto. If Houston is able to keep their bats even a little warm, I don’t see Steven Matz (4.78 ERA, 1.22 WHIP over 32 innings) holding up. The value is on the Astros by margin.
