MLB POSTSEASON BETTING STRATEGY by Nick Hub
Over the course of the long 162-game regular season, it is possible to identify betting opportunities for certain clubs, based on the success of the starting pitchers, bullpen strategy and offensive production in certain situations. All of those factors can change in the postseason as teams usually shift to four-starter pitching rotations, which in turn impacts the dynamics of a club’s bullpen.
Momentum plays a huge role in how teams fare during the postseason. Baseball players are streaky, and sometimes the difference between winning and losing a series is which team is hotter. Certain top competitors and higher seeds might take their foot off the gas down the stretch. With a guaranteed playoff spot and home-field advantage secured, there’s little reason to exert 100% effort. Meanwhile, certain lower seeds are forced to scratch, claw, and fight their way into the playoffs. However, you also have to factor in that the higher seed has their guys on normal rest which could be an edge.
The significance of the starting pitching matchup, along with the strength of both bullpens cannot be overstated. A team that has a shaky bullpen is a major concern. It’s crucial to dive deeper into the pitching matchup, especially during the postseason. As I mentioned, many teams will cut a starting pitching rotation by one pitcher, many of its best arms will see more playing time. That means that certain players will see more wear and tear down the stretch of the postseason. Always check when the last time each starting pitcher took the mound.
When handicapping a postseason matchup, check to see if each team faced off in the regular season. While things change on a daily basis in the MLB, these past performances can provide a glimpse into the future. Also, having guys with postseason experience on the team who know how to handle themselves during this time can provide a big edge. Teams with postseason veterans on the team can give that squad better leadership.
During the playoffs, there are also certain scenarios to look for. Team A is up 3-1 in the 7-game series and saves their best arms in game 5 to set up the next 2 games of the series. Team A won the night before and threw their best arms out of the pen while Team B saved their best arms for the next game. Coaches don’t like to lose but great coaches know they have to mail in certain games to put them in better position for the next game(s). This is very important when playing totals. Watch coaches press conferences and read up on that team’s beat writers on Twitter to get a better idea of the game plan for the next game.
Bettors must also look for dramatic betting line movement on MLB postseason games. Playoff games see more action from the public and that can lead to wide and rapid swings in game betting lines. This might involve fading the public, following reverse line movement, and simply outworking other gamblers. There are far fewer games. The bookie has all his attention on just a few games. That results in tighter lines. Just as the teams themselves up the ante during this time of year, we need to also elevate the level of our handicapping. If there is not a desirable spot, we need to leave it alone.
