Baseball season has arrived. The Owners and players have an agreement, and the spring training position battles and injuries have gotten under way. I will be previewing all six divisions from a betting perspective and will give out all the futures plays for free. Last year our MLB Bets went 362-317-23 with over a 7% ROI. You can get all my premium MLB picks all season long available here https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-levels/
I’ll then do a brief article about how I see the playoffs going and where there is value in pennant and World Series odds. If you remember we picked the Super Bowl winner in the Rams in our NFL preview articles and I plan on doing it again here for MLB.
AL Central
Betting – Odds to win Division and Regular Season Over/Under Win Totals
Chicago White Sox -195/ 91.5
Minnesota Twins +400/ 81.5
Detroit Tigers +700/ 77.5
Cleveland Guardians +1000/ 76.5
Kansas City Royals +1200/ 73.5
Chicago White Sox – The South side rebuild is finally complete. The minor league pieces acquired through trades 5 years ago have all made their way into the majors and the White Sox dominated the weak AL central as the only team over .500 in 2021. The top 7 in this order are all potential all-stars. Luis Robert has also yet to realize his full potential and could be a potential MVP candidate if he does. Yoan Moncada and Eloy Jimenez have either yet to put it all together because of plate discipline or injuries, and if they do look out. The 1-2 punch of Lucas Giolito and Dylan Cease in the rotation makes the White Sox the team to beat once again. They did lose the reinvented Carlos Rodon in free agency, but replaced him with Lance Lynn. Lynn will start year on IL with knee surgery coming up. The real wild card in whether or not this team simply wins the Central or makes more noise in the playoffs is Michael Kopech. This kid in unreal. He throws triple digits and makes it look easy. If he becomes and stays as a full time member of the rotation it will be bad news for the rest of the American League. Oh and they have one of the top two closers in baseball in Liam Hendriks.- Prediction 94-68
Minnesota Twins – The Twins had a somewhat puzzling off season as they moved out some big bats in Josh Donaldson and Mitch Garver and brought in Carlos Correa, Gary Sanchez and Gio Urshela. The offense will go if the oft-injured Byron Buxton stays on the field to set the table. Jorge Polanco and Correa will also have to keep up production for them to stay in the central race. Other homegrown talent Miguel Sano, Max Kepler and Alex Kirilloff will need to improve upon 2021 in order to actually win the division. In the rotation Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober are joined by a trio of veterans to see if they can recapture some past magic. Sonny Gray, Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer all have past successes, but with the exception of Gray, all have disappointed in recent seasons. The bullpen has Taylor Rogers and a bunch of guys with ERAs over 4.5. Don’t look for them to hold late leads until the 9th. They could also be moving a bunch of veterans at the deadline if things go sideways early. Prediction 79-83
Kansas City Royals – The Royals won 74 games in 2021 behind the bat of catcher Salvador Perez who tied for the league lead by hitting 48 Home Runs. They still have table setter Whit Merrifield atop the lineup. Adalberto Mondesi could steal 60 bases if he stays healthy although he can’t stop striking out when he is in the lineup. The exciting rookie Bobby Witt Jr. looks to slot in near the top of this lineup and is the future of the franchise and the first of a few solid prospects that will be up over the course if the next two years. The rotation lost 3 starters and got 3 starters back headlined by Zack Greinke coming home. The dude has always been a bit of a head case, but he thrived in KC with a lack of exposure and pressure and could do so again. I actually have every pitcher on their roster with the exception of closer Scott Barlow to hold an ERA between 4.00-5.00. That won’t win you a lot of games where you only score 2 runs, but this team has enough offensive talent to remain competitive and I don’t see them moving much at the deadline if they are lingering around .500. Prediction 78-84
Detroit Tigers – The Tigers youth movement started to show up last year with the arrival of pitchers Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize. Neither of them were lights out, but both have solid pedigrees. They will be joined to start the season by former top overall pick Spencer Torkleson, and at some point the now injured Riley Greene. Underrated 3B Jeimer Candelario will bat in the middle of the lineup along side Free agent pickup Javier Baez. The rotation also grabbed Eduardo Rodriguez from free agency. Outside of a reinvented Michael Fulmer, and closer Gregory Soto, the bullpen is a hot mess. This team will continue to improve as the youngsters gain experience, but it is still a little away from competing in this division. Prediction 75-87
Cleveland Guardians – The oft- injured Guardians were two games under .500 in 2021. They have not made a lot of moves from that team however and the rest of the division seems to have gotten better around them. The lineup has some excitement at the top with elite base stealer Myles Straw. The middle of the order is also solid with Jose Ramirez, Franmil Reyes and Bobby Bradley. In the rotation they have an ace in Shane Bieber, but health is a concern for him. Cal Quantrill, Zach Pleasac and Aaron Civale will come next, but not one of them strikes out a lot of batters. The back end of the bullpen has Emmanuel Clase and Nick Sandlin, but that is the only above average arms down there. Prediction 72-90
My Free plays on the AL East are as follows:
I don’t see a second team getting to the playoffs here. There are three teams in the West and four teams in the east I have as better teams than the Twins. The White Sox should own the division. I’m intrigued by the Royals and Tigers, but not enough to do more than a small bet here on the Royals total. I think the Twins could be sellers, but I can’t take their under just in case they are close in the race.
Chicago White Sox to win division -195 – To Win 2 Units
Chicago White Sox over 91.5 Wins – 1 Unit
Kansas City Royals over 73.5Wwins – 1 .5 Units
