There’s only four games happening in the NHL on Monday night but there are some great matchups. The Toronto Maple Leafs will head to Tampa to take on the Lightning in a battle for second place in the Atlantic division. Then at 10:30 pm, the Flames will look to increase their lead in the Pacific division against the Kings who sit in second. It should be a great night for hockey which will unfortunately take a back seat to the final of March Madness.
Toronto Maple Leafs @ Tampa Bay Lightning
- Time: 7:30 PM ET
- TV Coverage: ESPN+
- Toronto Maple Leafs: 44-19-5, 2nd Atlantic (19-12-3Away)
- Tampa Bay Lightning: 43-18-7, 3rd Atlantic (21-6-5 Home)
| Team | Opening ML | Current ML | Spread | Total |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | +123 | +110 | +1.5 (-220) | o6.5 (-105) |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | -148 | -130 | -1.5 (+180) | u6.5 (-115) |
Trends:
- Toronto are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 7 of Toronto’s last 8 games on the road.
- Tampa Bay are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Tampa Bay’s last 12 games.
Previous Matchups:
- December 9, 2021
- TBL (5) @ TOR (3)
- TBL +110, TOR -130, O/U 5.5 (+100/-120)
- November 4, 2021
- TBL (1) @ TOR (2) – OT
- TBL +115, TOR -135, O/U 5.5 (-115/-105)
Preview:
Toronto Maple Leafs
The Leafs are 7-3 in their last 10 and currently on a four game winning streak. During that four game stretch, they’ve defeated Florida, Boston, Winnipeg and Philadelphia and averaged six goals for per game. Their offense has really found their stride as of late led by none other than Austin Matthews who recently became the fourth player in Leafs history to score 50 goals in a season.
In Toronto’s last ten they’re averaging 4.10 Goals For per game which is an uptick from their season average of 3.76. They rank 2nd in the NHL in terms of Goals For so with the additional uptick in offense production, it makes them very dangerous as only certain teams can match their offensive fire power. The increase in goals hasn’t necessarily been because of their increase in scoring chances but, more so in their ability to capitalize on chances as their Shooting % has increased 2%. Toronto’s Power Play has also been great as of late scoring at a 9% higher rate in their last 10 games.
The Maple Leafs haven’t been great defensively this year as they rank 17th in Goals Against with an average of 3.03. In their past 10 games, they’ve been right around that mark allowing an average of 3.10. Their shots against has also remained in line with their season average so nothing really out of the ordinary for them defensively.
Jack Campbell has been confirmed as the starter for the Leafs tonight. He’ll make his second start since returning from an injury. In his last start he allowed 3 goals on 32 shot attempts finishing with a -0.71 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx). At the beginning of the year, Campbell was one of the best goalies in the NHL in terms of GSAx, now he ranks 66th with a -2.5 through 41 games. The Leafs desperately need him to return to form if they want to have a shot at making a deep playoff run.
Tampa Bay Lightning
The Lightning have also been playing some great hockey as of late going 6-3-1 in their last 10. They’re coming off a 5-4 shootout loss to the Canadiens at home where Brian Elliot struggled finishing with a -1.36 GSAx. Prior to that game, they had won four straight defeating the Red Wings, Islanders, Hurricanes, and Blackhawks.
Unlike the Maple Leafs, the Lightning have struggled offensively averaging 3.00 Goals For in their last 10 which below their season average. Tampa Bay has actually generated more Shots on Goal in those 10 games but their Shooting % has dropped. One encouraging sign for the Lightning has been their Power Play which has converted at 34.38% compared to their season average of 22.2%. Part of the reason Tampa won back to back Stanley Cup’s was their ability on the man advantage so if they can keep this up, they have a shot at winning their third in a row.
With their offense struggling, their defense has certainly stepped it up. In their last 10 games the Lightning are averaging 2.10 Goals Against. On the year they average 2.75 Goals Against per game which ranks 8th. If their offense does start to take advantage of those additional scoring chances they’re generating, I’m not sure how anyone beats this team. Just like their Power Play, Tampa Bay’s Penalty Kill has been better as of late.
Andrei Vasilevskiy is expected to start for the Tampa Bay Lightning today. In his last three starts, he’s averaged two goals against. On the year, he ranks 3rd in terms of GSAx with a +26.1.
Pick:
- TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING ml (-128) – CIRCA
- The first thing that jumps out to me is the moneyline. In their previous two matchups this season the Maple Leafs were favored. Obviously home ice play a major part in this but just something to be aware of. The total was also set at 5.5 in their previous two matchups and in tonight’s matchup, it’s set at 6.5.
- The Lighting are a much better team at home so it makes sense why their favored. Toronto also hasn’t been as dominant on the road, so again the moneyline checks out.
- I’m going with Tampa Bay at home here, they should be able to slow down this dangerous Toronto offense and given the goaltender matchup, I trust Vasilevskiy.
Other Picks on the Night:
- VLADIMIR TARASENKO OVER 2.5 SOG (-152) – BARSTOOL
- In the two matchups this season, Tarasenko is averaging 5 Shots on Goals against Arizona. The Coyotes are giving up almost 40 Shots on Goal against in their last 10 games. He’s actually gone under this number in his last two games but given his history against Arizona, I think he has a great shot of hitting this number. He’s also been better at home this season averaging 3.2 SOG per game. All of this information can be found at linemate.io.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
