Baseball season has arrived. The Owners and players have an agreement, and the spring training position battles and injuries have gotten under way. I will be previewing all six divisions from a betting perspective and will give out all the futures plays for free. Last year our MLB Bets went 362-317-23 with over a 7% ROI. You can get all my premium MLB picks all season long available here https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-levels/
I’ll then do a brief article about how I see the playoffs going and where there is value in pennant and World Series odds. If you remember we picked the Super Bowl winner in the Rams in our NFL preview articles and I plan on doing it again here for MLB.
I’ve Got 8 Units worth of predictions below.
MLB Post-Season Predictions
If you’ve been following along out divisional previews you already have a fairly good idea of how I see things shaking out. Playoffs have 12 teams this year. The top 2 divisional winners get a bye. The other divisional winner is the #3 seed, and then the next three best records in the league are the #4, #5, and #6 seeds. There are no tie-breaker games this year. The playoffs also do not get re-seeded after each round
National League Seeds – #1 Los Angeles Dodgers, #2 Milwaukee Brewers, #3 New York Mets, #4 San Diego Padres, #5 Atlanta Braves, # 6 San Francisco Giants (They win the tie-breaker with the Phillies for the 6 seed)
American League Seeds – #1 Toronto Blue Jays, #2 Chicago White Sox, #3 Seattle Mariners, #4 New York Yankees, #5 Boston Red Sox, #6 Houston Astros
Wild Card Matchups
Mets vs Giants – I’m gonna assume Degrom and Scherzer are both still upright somehow come playoffs and give the Mets this one. Mets win series 2-0
Padres vs Braves – We haven’t had a repeat world series champ since the Yankees 3 peat in 2000. No reason it starts this year. Padres win series 2-1
Mariners vs Astros – The feel good story from last year wins the division, but loses early to a much more experienced playoff team. Astros win series 2-0
Yankees vs Red Sox – The series MLB wants, finds a way to happen in the wild card. I’m sticking with recent post-season trends in this matchup. Red Sox win series 2-1
Divisional Series
Dodgers vs Padres – The Padres built this team to compete with LA. My guess is they will be healthier in the rotation by the end of the year, and get the upset here. Padres Win series 3-1
Brewers vs Mets – Scherzer and DeGrom vs Burnes and Woodruff. The youth movement has arrived. Brewers win series 3-1
Blue Jays vs Red Sox – Too much Toronto lineup in this one for the Red Sox average rotation to overcome. Blue Jays Win series 3-1
White Sox vs Astros – 2005 World Series rematch. Justin Verlander gives the Astros a chance throwing two amazing starts, but that’s all the pitching the Astros can muster. They fall in a thrilling game 5 extra inning affair. White Sox win series 3-2
Championship Series
Brewers vs Padres – Battle of two of the coolest ball parks in the country. The Brewers got here through pitching and defense. They hold the Friars to 14 runs in the series and get by in 7. Brewers win series 4-3
Blue Jays vs White Sox – There’s more experience in the Blue Jays rotation, but when it comes to pure talent I give the nod here to Kopech, Giolito and Cease. They find a way to quiet the Blue Jays bats and take this series. White Sox in series 4-2
World Series
Brewers vs White Sox – The Battle of I-94. Great pitching leads the way and cold October nights in Chicago turn this into one of the lowest scoring World Series in history. I think Milwaukee gets by in 7. Brewers win series 4-3
Post-Season Plays
White Sox to Win World Series +1000 .5 Units
Brewers to Win World Series +1200 .5 Units
White Sox to win AL Pennant +600 .5 Units
Brewers to win NL Pennant +650 .75 Units
Mariners to Win AL Pennant +1400 .25 Units
Padres to Win NL Pennant +850 .25 Units
Other MLB Season Futures I See Value In
AL MVP – Nothing for me here. If Shohei is healthy he’s it. If not It’s Vlad. No Value
NL MVP Freddie Freeman +1000 .25 Units
AL Cy Young Kevin Gausman +1800 .25 Units
NL CY Young – I’d love to bet Freddy Peralta here at +6500 or so but cant find it. Take Burnes at +800 .25 Units
AL ROY – Joe Ryan +2000 .25 Units
NL ROY – Oneill Cruz- +325 .5 Units. – Short Line, but I don’t see others competing unless they keep him down longer than expected.
Most HR – Franmil Reyes +1800 .25 Units
Most Runs Scored – George Springer +1800 .25 Units
Kevin Gausman Over 11.5 Wins 1 Unit. – Berrios is at 13.5?????
Chris Bassitt Over 10.5 Wins .5 Units
Josh Donaldson under 29.5 HRs – .5 Units – He’s not getting through whole season healthy
Ramon Laureano Under 20.5 HRs .5 Units – He’s Peaked at 24HR and is missing first 27 games, plus has no lineup protection.
Tim Anderson over 165.5 Hits- 1.25 Units – He had 163 last year and played in 123 games.
