It’s 7/11, which means I’m definitely getting my free Slurpee, and it also means that game 3 of the NBA Finals has arrived! We’re 5-1 so far betting this series– onto the picks!
Bucks win 1Q (-175), 1.75 units and
Suns/Bucks 1H over 109 (-110), 1.5 units and
Bucks -4.5 (-110), 2 units:
I think the Suns are going to win this series, I said that before it started, but I also predicted it was going to go at least 6 games. We’ll see if that comes to fruition but I have little doubt that the Bucks will win at least one of these battles at Fiserv Forum. Giannis has played sensational so far but his supporting cast hasn’t been as stellar. While many of the Bucks’ players have had good games, they haven’t been great. Jrue Holiday was on a tear against the Hawks but the Suns’ defense is doing a great job at limiting his production. In game two he was a horrendous 7/21 from the field for only 17 points. Middleton was even worse, shooting 5/16 from the field for an abysmal 11 points. It doesn’t need to be said but I’ll say it anyway– if the Bucks want a chance at this title, the way they’re role-players are contributing (or lack thereof) is not sustainable. Even when the Greek-freak is freakishly dominating the front court (he was 15/22 for 42 points) like the freak he is, Milwaukee can’t win without a full team effort. The Suns are too well-balanced and too well-coached to let one player beat them. Expect a recharged Bucks unit to come out hot after a solid 3 days off. I love them winning the first quarter.
I also expect points in this one, again. Although these two teams have fantastic defenses, statistically the best overall in these playoffs, they’re playing at a pace that will continue to be unkind for those betting unders. Since I think the Bucks could win this game by some margin, I’ll avoid taking the full game total over. Margin tends to equal a decrease in tempo and less output on the scoreboard. That being said, I foresee the Bucks running at light-speed behind their fans from the opening tipoff and I really like the first half going over. If this game slows down at any point and some of the quarter/half/full game totals drop too low, I’ll hit a live over too.
The Bucks have only lost 1 playoff game at home this postseason. That came in their first contest against Atlanta, much to everyone’s shock. The Bucks can absolutely cover this number, behind their Milwaukee fans, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they were up by double digits in the fourth quarter. For as good as Phoenix has been, the Bucks still have plenty of fight, not to mention the best player on the court (maybe not at the foul line but you get it). I think the home team takes care of business tonight.
