A nice 3-2 night Friday, I can’t complain about that. I was pretty surprised the Warriors fell to Orlando, but they’re on a pretty tough road stretch. Saturday gives us a rather light card but there’s still some value to be had. Below are my picks:
Hornets win (+105), 1 unit: It felt like the Warriors ran out of steam last night. They started to take over in the 2nd half, surging back to a 7 point lead and scoring 43 points in the 3rd quarter, only to surrender 31 points in the 4th and sinking in the final minutes. That will be the story of the Warriors this year. Some games they’ll look fluid and dangerous, especially when Curry gets support from young talent like Wiggins and Oubre Jr. Other nights, when Steph is under duress and not getting as much support, Golden State won’t have enough steam. The Warriors will be without Looney and Wiseman– no news on if Draymond will play tonight. The Hornets come into this matchup well rested after a brief 6 day COVID pause. Gordon Hayward and PJ Washington should return tonight, creating a healthy starting roster backed up by Terry Rozier and LaMelo Ball at the guard positions. I could see the Warriors not wanting to over-exert themselves tonight and caring a little less about a win, while the Hornets are rested and made sure they fit in a Friday practice before this matchup. Motivation, rest, and spot advantage goes to Charlotte. Take the Hornets.
Heat +4 (-110), 1.5 units and
Heat win (+140) for .5 units sprinkle: Similar to the Nets/Lakers game Thursday night, I think this game matters more to the Heat. The Nets arrived on fire at the Staple Center and it was obvious the Lakers struggled defensively without long-armed Anthony Davis surveying the front court. That might not have mattered against Brooklyn with the way they were shooting, but I think Davis’ absence could cause even more problems tonight. Montrezl Harrell is a tough force down low, but so is Bam Adebayo. Bam has been dominant at the rim against smaller centers. If LAL chooses to play Marc Gasol more, that might present even more problems against Adebayo. Gasol is a wily ol’ vet but he doesn’t move like he used to. Bam’s athleticism and toughness will be hard for Gasol to match. The Heat miss Goran Dragic running point guard– Jimmy Butler is more much effective at shooting guard– but Miami still has the perimeter shooting to keep up with the Lakers. Big performances by Adebayo and Tyler Herro helped Miami get off the schneid against the Kings two days ago. I like that momentum heading into Saturday night. With Dennis Schroder still out and Lebron and Kuzma added to the injury list (albeit with probable designations), it feels like this is a good let-down, chill-out situation for the Lakers. The Heat won’t see it that way– this is still a prime revenge spot from last year’s championship series, in case you forgot. There’s value on the Heat side tonight.
Blazers -4.5 (-115), 2 units: It’s been a nice little run for the Wizards the past week but I can’t step in front of Portland right now. The Blazers have had plenty of let-down spots on their 6-game win streak and they just keep overcoming the odds, literally. Bradley Beal is deserving of the praise he’s receiving, both as a leader and a scorer, but the Blazers have imposed their will on tougher defenses like OKC, Philadelphia and Orlando during this stretch. They won’t have any issue imposing their will on the Wizards. Take Portland.
