Yet another 4-1 performance Sunday capped off a fantastic week for yours truly in NBA picks. Of course, this whole season has been pretty spectacular. We were 21-10 last week, 15-4 the past 4 days, and now 192-140 (58%) overall this year. It’s the final week of the NBA’s regular season and it’s my sole intention to finish as high as we started. Let’s go!
Pacers -8 (-110), 1.5 units: This line is now all the way up to -9 at most books and I still like that number. Indiana should win this by double digits. The Cavaliers have now lost 10 straight games and if you want to know just how bad they’re losing, check out the stats my article yesterday— they’re getting their asses kicked night in and night out. The reality is that Cleveland has mailed it in for the season and even if they didn’t want to mail it in, they’re just way too injured. Any chance they had of resurrecting their season dissipated months ago when injuries kept stacking up and wins became more sparse. Collin Sexton is easy to cheer for and Kevin Love is back, but they just don’t have the talent or depth to rival a motivated team like Indiana. The Pacers aren’t exactly healthy either, but the good news is Domantas Sabonis (probably the most integral piece to Indiana’s success), Chris LeVert and Malcolm Brogdon will all play tonight. The Pacers sit at 10th in the East, the final spot to enter to play-in tournament for a chance at the postseason. I don’t think they’ll win that play-in tournament but they have a real reason and the inspiration to play for something tonight. The Pacers face a really tough remaining schedule with Philadelphia, Milwaukee, LAL, and Toronto all coming this week, so they really need to win this one. I don’t like that Indiana hosts the 76ers tomorrow night but the Cavs just got annihilated 24 hours ago by Dallas, losing by 27 points, so this is still a tougher spot for Cleveland. All systems go– time for the Pacers to impose their will and prove they want it.
Wizards/Hawks over 237 (-115), 2 units: If you’ve read my articles you know I love to talk about and quantify the Wizards totals the past few weeks. They simply cannot be stopped. Bradley Beal has a hamstring issue so he won’t play tonight, but Beal isn’t the only reason the Wizards score so many points. It’ll hurt not having their star but if anything, I’d say Russel Westbrook is the most integral cog in their offensive machine. The Wizards have been ranked #1 in pace for quite some time now, reminiscent of the Warriors teams of the past, and it’s why they’re able to overwhelm their opponents. Russel is a master at sprinting down the court, facilitating the ball and creating opportunities for his teammates. Beal might be the biggest beneficiary of that but we’ve seen big games from Hachimura, Bertans, Neto and others too. The Hawks don’t play nearly as fast as Washington but they make up for it in other ways. Trae Young leads an effective group of shooters that are ranked 8th overall in offensive efficiency and 14th overall in points per game (113.3). Lately they’ve been scoring even more, averaging 123 points over their last 4 contests. Picking the under in a Wizards game feels like blasphemy these days and I won’t do it tonight, especially at any number falling under 240. Book it.
Bucks -7 (-110), 1 unit: This one is really tough to call. I’ll only put 1 unit on it but I think the Bucks can overwhelm San Antonio. The Spurs love to run at a methodical pace and play solid defense but they won’t blow you away in any one area. The Bucks? They’re all about blowing the other team away. Milwaukee has one style to eliminate their opponents and it hasn’t changed much the last few years– let Giannis sprint in, create space and dominate the front court. San Antonio no longer has the size and prowess in their own front court to stop someone like Giannis and I think that could be a real problem tonight. Their starting forward Keldon Johnson is 6’5″ and their starting center Jakob Peoltl, the Austrian who stands at 7’1″, has solid moments but rarely dominates at the rim. Ergo, I think the Greek-Freak will do whatever he wants in this contest. This is a tough game to handicap because both teams really want to win. The Spurs still sit at 10th overall in the West, the final play-in spot, while the Pelicans are breathing down their neck sitting only 1 1/2 games back. San Antonio has a brutal stretch to end the season (New York, Brooklyn, Phoenix x 2) and needs every win they can get. The Bucks have taken advantage of the Nets’ recent failures and only sit 1/2 game back of 2nd place in the East. The 1st and 2nd place spots are extremely important in the Eastern Conference and no doubt the Bucks are amped to have a shot at it. For as much as San Antonio has fought hard and for as good as they are against the spread, I have to favor the considerably better team here, especially since they should be just as motivated to win. Only 1 unit, but I’m on Milwaukee to cover.
Steph Curry over 35.5 points (-115), 2 units and Lean, Warriors win (+110): I’ll probably sprinkle some money on the Warriors winning but it’s just a lean for now. I do think this will be a big Steph Curry game. Just for perspective, Curry has scored over 35.5 points in 13 of his last 20 games. Many of those over 35.5 point games were against the NBA’s better defensive teams: Denver, Boston, Milwaukee, Atlanta, Philadelphia. And now here comes another marquee matchup between the #1 team in the West in the Utah Jazz and the #8 team in Golden State, a squad that’s almost solely in a position to make the playoffs because of their star. It’s true that the Jazz are extremely good on defense, they rank 3rd in defensive efficiency and allow the 3rd least points per game, but I think it’s fair to say that Rudy Gobert is the dominant factor in that equation. The 7’1″ French giant will probably win defensive player of the year again and he deserves it. What Gobert cannot hope to control is Steph Curry. Curry is too talented at moving around off the pick and roll and too crafty at finding ways to out-dribble his opponent and create distance. With pride and motivation soaring inside Curry tonight at the Chase Center, I don’t think there’s any chance (barring an injury, knock on wood) that we don’t see another electric performance from #30. The Warriors could very well win, but I’ll confidently ride Curry’s points for now. Look at a first quarter or first half line on Golden State, too. I could see them coming out really hot, although Utah could end up overcoming it towards the end.
