It was another winning night for yours truly as our NBA bets went 4-1 overall. We got a little gift from lady luck in the Wizards/Raptors over bet but hey, when you get as many unfortunate beats as I do, I’ll take that ANY DAY of the week. Besides, do you really think that a Wizards game going under was the “right” side? Psh. Happy Friday, good people!
Pelicans +9.5 (-110), 1 unit: Like I’ve said in so many previous articles (and in my podcast), New Orleans is a team with a ton of talent and they’re very desperate right now, sitting right outside the “play-in tournament” for a playoff bid. Philadelphia is the considerably better team but I have to believe the Pelicans can at least make this close for most of this contest, purely based on motivation. The 10th placed Spurs have a REALLY tough road ahead to stay on pace, so the Pelicans have a real opportunity to sneak into the postseason. I’ll lay 1 unit on that narrative.
Celtics -3 (-110), 1.5 units: Just like we figured, the Bulls ousted the Hornets last night after finally having a full lineup on the floor. LaVine had 13, Vucevic had 29, and the banged up Hornets couldn’t hang with a rejuvenated Bulls unit. I think things will look a little different tonight. Jaylen Brown will sit out tonight but Romeo Langford and Tristan Thompson are probable for Boston. Veterans like Marcus Smart, Kemba Walker, and of course Jayson Tatum round up a Celtics unit that sits at 35-31 on the season. That’s good for 6th in the East. Do you know who’s also 35-31? The Miami Heat; and they’re traveling to Boston Sunday for a double-header against the very same Celtics. Protecting the 6th seed is really important. If you fall to 7th, you’ll be a part of the “play-in tournament” games which, in the blink of an eye, puts you at risk of missing the playoffs. That’s one reason why I hate that whole idea but I digress. The Celtics are one of the more up and down teams in the association but they’ve turned up the volume recently, going 12-6 overall since the start of April. They’re top 13 in both offense and defensive efficiency, so they do nothing that really thrills you, but they’re full of talented shooters and they’re one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the NBA. With how small they are, that’s pretty incredible and speaks to their effort. I expect max effort and a cover for Boston tonight, while I expect Chicago to deflate after that comfortable win against Charlotte’s B team.
Rockets/Bucks over 231.5 (-110), 1 unit: The Rockets tend to play at the pace of the other team, because they’re just that vulnerable, and even without John Wall they can still put up points. That’s especially true in the second half of the 2021 season. The Bucks play lightning fast at home and that’s how they overwhelm teams– once Giannis hits half court, it takes him about 3 long, sprinting steps to slam it down and he does it often. Milwaukee has averaged 126.5 points per game at home in their last 6 games, half of those against really good defenses like the Suns and Sixers. The Rockets play at the 6th quickest tempo in the NBA while the Bucks are 3rd. This all points towards another game with a ton of points for me. Consider a Milwaukee team total over, too.
Jazz -4 (-110), 2 units: The Jazz look to be rounding into form after 2 impressive wins over a tough San Antonio team this week. While the Suns lost a few games in a row, Utah’s recent wins neatly placed them right back in first place in the Western Conference. The Jazz will look to hold onto that top seed since it’ll undoubtedly mean a less trying road to the championship. The 1 and 2 seeds are a big deal for that reason. Meanwhile, all the Nuggets have done recently is win. Denver is 15-4 straight up since April 1st. Murray got injured on April 12, so the majority of those wins came after his absence. Court general Nikola Jokic has led the Nuggets past innumerable tough teams like the Knicks, Clippers, Grizzlies and Heat. I love Denver and I think they could be a real contender come playoff time, but this isn’t the spot. Utah will stay home and get the Western Conference’s worst team in the Rockets tomorrow night. Denver has to travel to Brooklyn Saturday to face an angry Nets squad that’s lost 4 in a row. And even with all the press the Jazz have received lately, they’re still probably way better than you think. Utah ranks 3rd in offensive and defensive efficiency (Hollinger Metrics), 2nd in rebounding rate, and 1st overall in point differential. The 2nd placed Clippers aren’t even close (Utah is +9.4, LAC is +6.2). At 22-11 ATS, the Jazz are also the NBA leader at covering games at home (66.7%). This is a comfortable, “protect the throne” type spot for the Jazz and I expect them to take advantage. I love Denver, but the cards stack up for a big Utah win.
Spurs -4 (-110), 2 units: This line is going up and up so jump on it now. After 2 straight losses to the Western Conference leading Jazz, San Antonio looks for some revenge and a chance to keep their playoff hopes alive as their tough road trip continues Friday. I don’t love that they have to travel to Portland tomorrow night, but San Antonio is still the best ATS road team in the NBA, covering at a rate of 67.7%. The Spurs have a REALLY tough road to stay in that 10th spot in the West. Check out the rest of their schedule: Kings tonight, then Portland, Milwaukee, Brooklyn, New York, and then two straight games against Phoenix. Wow, that’s pretty damn brutal. Point is, the Spurs need to win tonight and they need it bad. Popovich loves to put the clamps down on defense against teams like the Kings, who depend on their mid-tier offense to win games (that hasn’t worked), and Sacramento’s worst-ranked defense (Hollinger Metrics) won’t be able to hold up against DeRozan and Murray and the young, talented Spurs roster. That’ll be especially true with how motivated they should be. I’m all over San Antonio.
