What could have been a 3-1 night turned into a 1-3 night in the NBA last night, what else is new, but that won’t deter me from thinking we’ll have much better results moving forward. Doing everything I can on my end to make sure that happens.
Onto the plays!
Cavs -3 (-115), to win 1.5 units
I just think Cleveland is the better team. They were atypically inefficient from the field and still beat Chicago, at Chicago, the other night. Now they’re back home, Mobley should be back, and even if he and Garland aren’t back, D. Mitchell has been playing out of his mind and Jarrett Allen is their most important piece. The Bulls depend too much on DeRozan and I think Cleveland’s defense can clamp down even better after seeing their offense so recently. Like a Cavs’ cover.
Warriors -3 (-110), to win 2.5 units
The Hawks, especially without Clint Capela, don’t have any real advantage against the Warriors offensively. And the Hawks are just SO much worse on the road. This is a forgiving line for a true disparity in momentum right now; I think this is another big Jordan Poole game for the win and cover at home.
Pacers/Raptors over 231.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Raptors just aren’t playing good defense these days, it just is what it is, and a team like the Pacers can really give them problems. Indiana had no problem serving up a very efficient game and 118 points in their last meeting, a win for Indiana, and this one should look very similar. The only difference– the Raptors should be MUCH more efficient from the floor. Toronto loses 10% of their effective FG % when Siakam, Barnes, and OG Anunoby aren’t on their floor. Barnes had a terrible night and they were without Siakam in their first meeting/loss to Indiana in November. Indiana runs with pace at home, and Toronto usually follows the other team’s pace on the road. A lot of ingredients for an over — I had this at 230 but I’m still taking it for 1 unit.
Rockets 1Q +2.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Rockets 1H +4 (-110), to win 1 unit
This is right around where I have the line but that’s what confuses me about this for the sportsbooks. Dallas just thrashed Houston a few games ago and now they’re right back at it, they’re 4th time this season, and they’re only 7.5 point favorites on the road. After Eric Gordon openly criticized his team, I expect Houston to come out with more gusto and energy, and I think Dallas is probably sick and tired of playing the Rockets, quite frankly. A divisional foe that won’t go away, most of their games are closer than advertised and Houston can keep this close early. Value on the dog.
Clippers -2.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
I have no idea why this line is so short. The Heat are way more banged up than the Clippers, and LAC’s main stars are healthy and at home in a revenge game. The Clippers are off a few bad road losses too– this is a nice opportunity to get-right against a team that really hasn’t found its footing on either side of the ball. Love the Clippers tonight.
