Wisconsin vs Indiana -2.5 O/U 126.5
Here we are at the end of February and there are many teams that have seem to clinch tournament birth but there are also plenty of teams to watch out for that still have a chance to dance. To find some of these bubble teams you do not have to look farther than the Big 10. Now people might say that Indiana doesn’t fit the bubble description, but with their large non-conference wins against Marquette and Louisville and win against Sparty, they still have a shot. Now Indiana has been a fade team for me but in this situation, they really need this game a lot more than Wisconsin. What has been consistent with the Hoosiers is their defense. At home the Hoosiers hold opponents to 61.3 points per game while Wisconsin only scores 65.9 on the road. Wisconsin themselves have the 6th best defense in the nation and second in the big 10 holding opponents to 61 points per game. Wisconsin plays the slowest pace in the big 10 at 63.5 possessions per game. Indiana only averages 62 points per game in conference and slowed their pace down in conference to from 66.6 possessions to 65.5 and hold the ball about a second longer than they did all year. Indiana is 11th in the big 10 in turnovers and desperation leads to turnovers which may make it easier for Wisconsin to control the pace. The under is the only play here and a lean to Indiana to cover the spread.
Under 126.5 and lean Indiana
TCU vs West Virginia +4 O/U 146.5
Here is another bubble team that I think we can find some value on. TCU is going to a very different looking West Virginia team that has 4 different starters in than they had during the non conference play due to injuries and disciplinary situations. Now the Mountaineers certainly played well at Baylor and was able to cover that spread but that was more of the exception due to Baylor’s best player Makai Mason going 0-7 from the field than the mean. Now I should not have to reiterate again that West Virginia is by far the worst team in the Big 12 but what should be obvious to everyone here is that TCU lost 3 out of their last 4 games without their second best player in Kouat Noi. Noi averages 15 points per game and 5 boards and is part of the reason that they beat Iowa State on Saturday by 3 points. TCU is a much better team when healthy and they like to play fast. TCU’s offense ranks 48th in the nation and their defense ranks 40th. West Virginia’s offense ranks 122nd in the nation and their defense ranks 137th respectively on Kenpom. Just looking at the conference game splits TCU wins 74-68. I like the bubble motivation here with the Frogs.
TCU -4
