Maryland vs Ohio State -3 O/U 139
Here are 2 teams both going in the opposite directions. Ohio State is 3-7 ATS at home while Maryland is 4-0 ATS on the road. Maryland has been on a tear winning 6 games in a row while Ohio State hasn’t won since the big 10 opener. Both teams are relatively injury free. What the hell is going on with with this Ohio State team? If you look at their schedule, they haven’t beaten anybody in the top 50 since their first game against Cincinnati. I think their loss of Bates Diop may be showing its ugly face. One thing that sticks out to me is that this team does not have a great offense or 3 point percentage but they do have a decent defense ranking 20th on kenpom. Maryland has actually been a pretty good scoring team averaging 77 points per game but only 70 on the road. Ohio State averages 80 at home themselves but if you look at some of the teams that they have played, you might not be that impressed. When they had to step up to tougher competition in top 50 teams like Syracuse, Iowa, Michigan State and Cincinnati, they only averaged 64 points. Ohio State hasn’t beaten a top 50 team. I think Maryland keeps it close but I also like the Under 139
Under 139 and Lean Maryland +2
Ohio vs Toledo -10.5 O/U 140.5
Ohio is coming in a very young team with a lot to prove this year while Toledo is exceeding expectations at a great record of 14-3. Toledo averages 80 points per game both at home and on the road. Toledo also only allows 63 points per game at home which is great. When you look at the teams that Toledo beat you realize why the numbers are so crazy. Toledo hasn’t beaten a top 100 team all year and the only ones that they have played, they lost to number 19 Buffalo by 30 points and lost at home to number 91 Ball State by 15. Ohio has had a much harder schedule with more losses but they have been able to beat teams like FIU, Detroit, Marshall and Ball State. Ohio hasn’t been much on offense ranking 314 in adjusted efficiency but they do rank higher on defense than Toledo at 49th in the country to Toledo’s 90th. I think this game will be a bit closer in a same state rivalry
Ohio +10.5
Northwestern vs Rutgers +1.5 O/U 129
So there are 2 things about these teams that we have to remember. Northwestern lost some top production last year with Lindsey an Macintosh and therefore isn’t quite as good and Rutgers is definitely a little bit better and has a few quality wins vs Miami and Ohio State. Neither team here is really that good at anything and both suffer on offense not even ranking in the top 120. Rutgers has had the harder schedule and Northwestern has had no big wins although they have great potential for the future with Vic law and Derek Pardon. The problem for the Wildcats is that Vic Law is their best player and has been injured the past few games. Eugene Omoruyi is Rutgers best player and is also questionable. The Handicap here is correct at NU -1.5 if Law plays but if he doesn’t then I really like Rutgers parlayed with the under. If both Law and OMoruyi is out then I love the under.
Update: Both Vic law and Eugene Omoruyi is out. Under 129!
Michigan vs Wisconsin +2 O/U 125
It is certainly a big surprise to myself and probably many Michigan fans how good this team has been after losing their best players Abdur Rahkman and Moe Wagner last year. Now we know that the rest of the team certainly has improved and they are also probably the best coached team in the big 10 if not the NCAA. Wisconsin on the other hand has definite talented in their Guards and Center position, but is also extremely bipolar. Sometimes they can just straight up ball and hit everything and sometimes they look like they haven’t shot a basket in 3 months. Coach Greg Gard doesn’t really have this team disciplined at all. For example last game they were down by 3 to Maryland with 30 seconds left and they ran the clock out on themselves without coach calling a time out or even taking a shot until about 9 seconds left. The Badgers used to be great at the disciplined areas in the game under Bo Ryan being great at free throws and offensive boards but now they rank 293rd in free throw percentage and 309 in offensive rebounds. Michigan has kinda replaced Wisconsin in some of these disciplined areas being tops in turnovers, steals and 3rd in the whole league on defense. In saying all this I think Wisconsin has a shot at winning this. If you look at the match-ups and the metrics, the Badgers match up very well against the Wolverine’s. Michigan has a high motion offense that leverages the dribble drive. Wisconsin runs a pack line defense that doesn’t try and go for steals and make huge break away plays but it forces their opponents to play in the perimeter and that is where some of Michigan’s speedy guys like Simpson, Pool and Mathews may be forced to play play the 20 foot jump shot game. Michigan only ranks 69th in the league in three point percentage so playing the pack line may be difficult. Wisconsin has a good defense but their weakness is definitely against big guys down low. Michigan really doesn’t play a big man type game down low and motion doesn’t mess up Wisconsin as much as the post. John Teske is a huge Center for Michigan but he will be well defended against Happ, Reuvers and Thomas down low. Michigan also does not have an answer Wisconsin’s best player center Ethan Happ. Wagner last year was able to play Happ tough and even though I do like Jon Teske as a player, I do not think he knows what he is up against. Ethan Happ is the most wirey center that I have ever seen down low. From a scheduling standpoint, Wisconsin’s ranks 10th hardest in the nation while Michigan’s ranks 96th. Now the straight raw numbers has this game pickem at 62-62. Looking at last year these teams are not far from what they were last year except Wisconsin has gotten better and Michigan has stayed close to the same. Last year these 2 team played at the Kohl Center and Michigan won 83-72. Both of these teams average 74 points per game. I see a hard fought game here and I think that this total may be a bit too low.
Taking the Over 125 and Wisco +2 and ML
Oakland vs Detroit -5
This play is a straight up trend play. Detroit is 6-1 ATS at home while Oakland is 4-5 ATS on the road. Long travel spot
Detroit -5
Pittsburgh vs Syracuse -7 – 129 O/U
This is a let down spot play – Syracuse beat Duke and they really shot out of their minds that game. I think that the Orange played out of their minds that game really. They shot well that game compared to their normal numbers. All year Syracuse ranks 247th in field goal percentage while Pittsburgh ranks 142. Syracuse also doesn’t normally hit 44% from 3 like in that game and instead they are at about 31%. look for the let down and take Pitt right before the game starts. I like how Pitt played their last few games beating Louisville and Florida State outright and losing to NC State by only 6.
Pittsburgh +8
Virginia vs Duke -1.5
This is the shortest handicap because if you watch any college basketball then you know these teams. This would be a great spot for Duke to get back on their feet from the Syracuse loss if it wasn’t for the fact that they will be without Tre Jones at Point Guard. Virginia is the best team on Kenpom. I have to go with the defense here while fading the injury to Duke. Tony Bennett is a beast of a coach and they are having a revenge tour this year after being the first number 1 seed in history to be ousted in the NCAA Tournament by 16 seed UMBC. I like Virginia any + money down to a Pickem.
Virginia +3
