LA Rams vs New Orleans Saints -3 O/U 56.5
Well we saw this show before. Some people said that this was the best game that they have ever seen? Well I bet to differ but the offense was absolutely crazy this game with the Saints winning 45-35 so maybe it was at least the best game in the regular season. This may be a bit of a complex handicap and it’s time to dig deep. First of all, there is no coaching mismatch. Both Sean Peyton and Sean McVey are top 5 in the game right now. The bad thing for the Saints is that they just lost Sheldon Rankins with a torn Achilles tendon. He was a huge run plugger on the line and may especially be missed against the Rams 3rd best run game in the NFL. David Onyemata will have to step up in his absence like he finished the game against the Eagles. Ben Watson is also out but he wasn’t targeted much the last few games. Now if you look the Rams, they happened to come out of their last game relatively healthy but they are still feeling that injury to WR Cooper Kupp from earlier in the year who helped them play the Saints in their first meeting. The Rams played a brilliant game against the Cowboys. They did everything that they had to do to hold onto that nice halftime lead and end up winning by 8 points. Their running game is really what showed up with CJ Anderson coming out of nowhere. Surprise Surprise. Now I ran the numbers here on home/road splits and actually came up with more of a pick-em time game rather than a 3.5 point spread for the Saints. Why is that you ask? Well I’ll tell you. The Rams numbers are exceptionally good on the road and for some reason their defense is better on the road allowing only 338 yards per game on the road compared to 371 at home? LA’s defensive yards per point is also way better on the road at 17 compared to 13.5 at home. Now why is that? Well if you look at who they played at home and who they played on the road it is a huge discrepancy. LA’s toughest road games were at the Saints and Seahawks. The rest of them were pretty average to bad offenses like the Lions, Broncos, Raiders and let’s not forget how bad those other 2 teams in the NFC west were. At home, the Rams had the Chiefs, Eagles, Chargers, Vikings and Packers so you see it is hard to go by away numbers. Now for the Saints side, they seemed to catch the hard teams at home such as their very hard division and the Eagles, Rams and Steelers. Being the big discrepancy, I used complete averages in my algorithm at have the Saints winning by 3.5 points. Well that is right at the spread right? Well there are a couple more things missing in this Handicap. When the Rams rushing game is humming they are a dangerous team and can beat anybody right? Wrong and I am going to give you some reasons why it is wrong. First, the Saints rushing defense is only 2nd to the Bears only allowing 78 yards per game and they are even a bit better than that at home. This could play a huge factor in this game! Plus if the Saints can grab the lead with that high powered weapons of Michael Thomas, Ted Ginn, Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara, the Rams could become one dimensional. Secondly, the Saint’s special teams are better at home than the Rams. Field position can be key in a huge football game. Third, it is hard to factor in what the Saint’s real numbers are due to the fact that in most cases, they had control of every game and ran the clock at the end. Fourth, the Saint’s strength of schedule has been harder than the Rams ranking 13th on Sagarin to the Rams 23rd. Fifth and Finally, as I stated before, this is Drew Brees’s chance to be like Peyton Manning, Big Ben and Tom Brady by cementing his legacy with over 1 Superbowl ring. With these extra factors and a huge Who-dat home field advantage I have the Saints winning this game by 6 at a score of 30-24. The Play is the Saint’s -3.5.
Saints -3.5 and lean under 57
Prop Bet: Ted Ginn to score a TD +200 & over 3.5 receptions. With Ben Watson out, Drew Brees will need to find more targets. Ginn recieved 7 Targets against the Eagles.
New England vs Kansas City -3 O/U 54.5
We have a very exciting game here! For coaching we have playoff success vs playoff failure. For quarterback we have greatest of all time vs the amazing student of the game. This looks like it will be an exiting one for sure. Let’s start with the Patriots. What can we say? Best franchise in history. Tom Brady looked like he was 25 years old again vs the Chargers. Now let me repeat that last part. Vs the Chargers. Here is my point. We discussed this many times. This LA team did the absolute exact opposite of what you are supposed to do to beat Brady. They played zone rather than man press with the blitz. The game was over after the first half giving up 35 points. Now I do not know if that was more Gus Bradley’s stupidity or Anthony Lynn’s incompetence. One thing is for sure, they didn’t do Phillip Rivers any favors for his legacy. Because of all of this people are scared shitless to bet the Chiefs. That is actually understandable for many reasons looking at Andy Reid’s playoff record compared to Belicheck. Now the Patriots have been extremely bad on the road and their home road splits have been insanely different. They average 34 points per game at home and 22 points on the road. They allow only 18 points per game at home and 24 points on the road. I mean they scored only 10 points at the Titans, Lions and Steelers. The Pats also have a 150 net yards per game difference between on the road and at home. Biggest difference in the NFL. The big question is does it matter because it is a playoff game? Well hell yes it should matter. It’s not like the Patriots are not trying to win these road games. Now we can keep talking about how great the Chiefs are on offense like usual and hate on them on defense but what’s the point? We know who they are. What I like about the Chiefs D lately is that they only allowed 18 points and 340 yards per game over their last 3 games. The big thing for me is will they play man press, stack the box to stop the run and blitz Tom Brady this game in order to bring the pressure? It is a great question because it is going to be cold and so will the field which is highly suitable for the run game. The Patriots have been great running the ball great over the last few games and rank 5th in rushing for the whole year. They also are top 10 in stopping the run. I do trust Bob Sutton to stack the box and play man press and the chase game against Tom Brady since he plays a lot of man anyways. What I don’t trust for the Chiefs is the Patriots running game being able to make a difference in this cold game. I also wonder how Bellichek is going to stop Tyreke Hill and Travis Kelcey. You really can’t take both of these guys away without leaving some wide open options for Pat Mahomes. Counting home road splits I have the Chiefs winning by 6 with a total of 44 points but counting straight average numbers I have the Chiefs by 3 with a total of 47. The under is probably the way to go here.
Under 54.5 – Chiefs ML -150 – Lean Chiefs – 3
