Minnesota vs Louisville -5 O/U 135
Des Moines IowaWill Richard Pitino avenge his father??? Well I think that is pretty silly because he has stated that he is his own man many times. This spot seems like a home court advantage for the Gophers being only 240 miles away down I-35. You would hope so anyways because Minnesota is bad on the road shooting only 40.7% and only scoring 63.6 points per game while giving up 68.9. That’s the big 10 for ya. If they get that home feeling, the Gophers average a 46.6 FG % and 78 points per game led by Jordan Murphy and Amir Curry. Louisville on the other hand is over twice as far away and scores 72.7 PPG on the road and gives up 69.7. This Cardinals team has shown greatness earlier in the season but sometimes they just seem to choke the game away like vs Florida State and Duke. Louisville has the better offense and defense but they have been ice cold the last month or so losing most of their games in the ACC while Minnesota had a very nice run the last few weeks beating Purdue twice, Penn State and Northwestern. My raw numbers has Louisville winning by 4.5 if this was truly a neutral spot. If the Gophers can play like they do at home in front of what should be a gopher crowd then this spread is a bit too much.
Lean Minnesota +5Yale vs LSU -7 O/U 159.5
Jacksonville FloridaWelp, coach Will Wade is still suspended. What are the poor Tigers ever going to do? They probably are still pouting about it right now. Wooooo is me. Wooo is me. This has been the best basketball season they have had for as long as I can remember and now without their coach, they will throw it all away. WRRRRRRROOOOOOOONG. This is the perfect spot for me to buy LSU at a discount. This is a top team who beat not only Kentucky, but Tennessee and Auburn as well. LSU seemed to keep getting better as the year progressed and has a top 10 offense with a half way decent defense. Yale is an Ivy league school who over achieved yet has some bad games losing to Columbia and Harvard. When they played Duke they lost by 33 points. Now LSU ain’t no Duke but they are not nearly as far off as Yale is from them. LSU is going to be looking for bounce back big after that early SEC tournament exit as a 1 seed. I like the price.LSU -7New Mexico State vs Auburn -6.5 O/U 133.5
Salt Lake City UTThis line opened up at 8 and is now down to Auburn -6.5 59% of the tickets are on New Mexico State but so is 82% of the money. Not sure really why this is an early sharp side but if you look at Kenpom, both are top 50 teams and Auburn is in a let down spot the way that they celebrated their SEC Championship. Both teams coming into the tournament are RED HOT. Auburn hasn’t been the best road team shooting 41.5% and scoring 73.5 points while giving up 72.4, but they proved on the neutral court that they can score in the SEC Championship. New Mexico Stats has been on a tear and hasn’t lost since January 3rd although their schedule has been easy. They shoot a nice 46.4 points on the road and score 77.3 while only giving up 66.3. New Mexico State’s only top 100 wins are number 96 on Kenpom Utah Valley and they lost pretty bad to St Mary’s but kept up with Kansas early on only losing by 3. My numbers have this game 77-70.5 Auburn so unfortunately it isn’t a play at this number. I was hoping to get a better number and will wait it out.Lean NM State +6.5Murray State vs Marquette -4.5 O/U 149
Hartford, ConnecticutThe big question that everyone is asking here is How is Marcus Howard’s wrist? Well it was fine 2 games ago vs St Johns where he shot over 50% from the field. He only went 1-15 vs Seton Hall last game and was part of the reason that his team lost. Marquette has had a bad finish to the year while Murray State hasn’t lost since January although they certainly got lucky in the Ohio Valley tournament vs Jacksonville State with that nasty flagrant foul that put them over the top at the end. Marquette is a great shooting team at 46.5% on the road outscoring opponents by 2. They had a very hard schedule this year. Murray State led by future NBA prospect Ja Morant shoots 48.8% on the road and outscoring opponents by over 10! The biggest issue for me here is that Murray State does not have any top 100 wins until they beat Belmont in the tournament. Earlier in the year Belmont beat them by 13 points. Ja Morant averages 24 points per game which is double over their second best player Shaq Buchanan at 13. If Marquette wants to beat this team the formula is simple. Stop Ja Morant. Maybe double team him and pack the paint. I have this game around 4 points for the raw numbers but I think coach Woj should know enough to utilize his full team to beat Murray State.Lean Marquette -4.5St Mary’s vs Villanova -5 O/U 130.5
Hartford ConnecticutHow convenient for the Wildcats to get to play a west coast team only 200 miles away from home. St Mary’s is about 2,994 miles away but that doesn’t mean a passionate fan base will not travel. The line here suggests very much that Villanova is playing at home. Both teams are within 5 spots from each other on Kenpom and both teams are coming in hot winning their conference tournaments. St Mary’s has only lost to Gonzaga since January and took care of them in their tournament while Villanova has squeaked 2 close games to win the Big East. Villanova is a good road team shooting 44.8% and scoring 74.2 points to 69.1. Nice 5 point varience. St Mary’s isn’t quite as good shooting 43.5% on the road in a bad conference only scoring 66.9 and allowing 64.7. Both of these teams are equally tall and we know that Nova lives and dies by the 3 but looking at the side by side numbers, the only thing that Saint Marys has that could hurt Nova is that they are a top 44 team in 3 point defense. Being in the West Coast Conference once again makes it hard to tell how accurate that is. One nice betting angle that Sticks out to me is that Villanova really starts games slow and they do not turn it up until the second half. St Marys has really picked up their defense lately allowing only 53 points over their last 8 games. St Marys is 4-1 to the under their last 5 games. St Mary’s is the 7th slowest team in the nation at 62.6 possessions per game while Villanova is the 20th slowest out of 353 teams at 63.6. As long as those 3s are not hitting at a crazy percentage, I have to really like the under here.Under 130.5Old Dominion vs Purdue -13 O/U 126
Hartford ConnecticutConference USA has a bunch of teams in the 100 ranges on Kenpom while we already know about the big 10. Old Dominion plays slow and thrives off of their defense being top 48 on Kenpom and ranking 325 in pace at 64.3 plays per game. The problem is that their offense isn’t even in the top 200. Old Dominion shoots a terrible 39.4% on the road and only outscores their opponent by 1.4 points away. Purdue isn’t so much better on the road at 41.2% shooting and outscoring their opponent by only .6. Purdue shoots a lot of 3s and being a tall team they are very good at rebounding the ball. Old dominion on the other hand has good defense ranking in the top 14 in the nation at effective defensive FG percentage which helped them beat teams like Syracuse and VCU. Now this total as been pushed down a bit from 129 to 126 and I think it may have been overbought a little. Purdue should be a motivated team here due to their early Big 10 Tournament exit. I think this spread is about right but if this total keeps going down I will be a buyer on the over. I have this game Purdue 72-58Lean over 126
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