Friday March 22nd
Cincinnati vs Iowa +3.5 O/U 138
Columbus Ohio
I really wanted to fade Cincinnati here after Houston only shot 30% in the American Athletic Conference Championship but this doesn’t really look like the spot. The Bearcats get to play the Hawkeyes practically at home here only 100 miles away while Iowa city is about 550 miles from Columbus. This is kinda like Iowa going to Ohio State for a game. Iowa has been bad on the road. They shoot 44.4% which is ok but they give up 75.5 points per game and only score 74.8. Cinci has been even worse shooting on the road at 40.7% shooting but they do score more points at 66.1 and give up 62.5 away which says good things about their defense. Being that the Bearcats are essentially at home it may be better to look at their home shooting percentage of 45.2%. Both teams have done well on neutral courts this year with Iowa winning 4 out of 5 and Cincinnati winning all 5 games. The thing that worries me most about the Bearcats is what happens if Jarron Cumberland just happens to get into foul trouble. Only 1 other player besides him averages double digit points and that is Keith Williams at 10. From a scoring perspective, the Bearcats are not deep at all. Iowa is one of the best teams this year in drawing fouls. They rank 14th in the nation at ft attempts over FG attempts. I do not like the smell of this game at all and I am going to stay away. I don’t even have a lean.
Lean First Half Under
UC Irvine vs Kansas State -4.5 O/U 119
San Jose, California
The Public is all over UC Irving driving this spread from +5.5 to +4.5. This is a lot more of a home game for UC Irvine even though they are an 8 hour drive away. I don’t see a lot of K-State fans coming to this game unless they knew if Dean Wade was playing. UC Irvine plays in a weak Big West conference but they haven’t lost since January 16th. Their only top 50 win was vs St. Mary’s and they were drudged by double digits against Butler and Utah State. Irvine shoots well on the road at 45% and they outscore their opponents by 8.2 but looking at this schedule it is hard for me get too excited. K state shoots only 42.3 % on the road but they outscore their opponents by 5.5 showing their great D. Now I know that Zion Williamson is the most valuable guy to any team but Kansas State without Dean Wade is Bi-polar. Without Wade, they got stomped by Marquette by 12, lost to Tulsa by 1 and barley beat Southern Miss and George Mason. With Wade they beat teams on the road like Texas, Baylor, Iowa State, Oklahoma and TCU. They also dominated their neutral games winning 5 out of 6. This cap is simple to me here. If Wade Plays I have Kansas State winning 65-56. Without Wade it could be a flat out loss. If Wade is playing I will try and hit the line quickly up to -5.5. If he isn’t I might just stay away
Kansas State -4.5 if Wade is playing no play if he isn’t
Oregon vs Wisconsin -1.5 O/U 117
San Jose, California
Every public bettor and their mom is on Oregon here. Such a trendy little pick. The most common 12-5 upset in the bracket. It’s easy to see why when Oregon finished up the Pac 12 in dominant fashion. It is also easy to see why watching Wisconsin struggle to shoot the ball at the United Center only hitting 35% from the field against Michigan State and 11% from 3. This line went all the way to Oregon -1.5 until some sharper action hit Wisconsin hard bringing it back to 1.5. I am going to guess this closes at a Pickem. If you think you are a fade the public sports bettor then this game is at least a no play for you. Whatever happened to the whole narrative that the Pac 12 sucks? Does anybody still care that Wisconsin’s defense ranks 3rd in the nation? Wisconsin’s offense actually ranks a lot higher than Oregons on Kenpom still even after all of this by about 50 spots. Wisconsin before the Big 10 tournament went 2-1 in Neutral sites only losing to Virginia by 7. The Badgers shoot 43.9 Percent on the road while Oregon shoots 42.1 in a much weaker conference. Wisconsin has some very experienced players on this team including Ethan Happ who plays like no other big man. People think that San Jose California should bring more Oregon fans but they are still over 500 miles away. Wisconsin travels well and and have a big following in California. I have been to many Badger Bars there. Oregon has beaten Washington but they haven’t faced a defense quite like Wisconsin. Oregon spend all of their energy getting to the NCAA tournament. Fading the perception here and I took the Badgers at +1.5 and I like them all the way to -3. This is kind of a system play as well backing a team that shot very bad the last outing.
Wisconsin up to -3
Georgia State vs Houston -11.5 O/U 141.5
Tulsa Oklahoma
This game is pretty interesting. Houston looked terrible in their AAC championship game only shooting 30% and losing to Cincinnati while Georgia State went on a nice run finishing off their competition in the Sun Belt. Now Houston is a much better team when Corey Davis and Armoni Brooks are hitting who both shot less than 25% against Cinci. They would have lost to East Carolina shooting like that. Georgia State is pretty good shooting 44.8 % away but they have been outscored by 1 point per game average on the road as well. The only top 65 teams that they have faced was Liberty and Creighton and they got destroyed both times. Houston shoots 45% on the road having a much harder schedule and has an amazing 15 point varience on the road for Points scored and points allowed. This is second to only Virginia. Georgia State has only the 137th ranked defense in the league. This once again is a system play.
Houston -11.5
Liberty vs Mississippi State -6.5 O/U 134
San Jose, California
Here is another situation where a team looks great on paper yet hasn’t beaten a top 100 team except in conference. Liberty had opportunities against teams like Georgetown and Alabama and they failed the test miserably losing by about 10 points each. The problem here is that Mississippi state on paper to me looks like a fade team and Liberty looks like a team to be on. The Flames play very slow at 4th slowest in the nation draining their opponents while shooting an amazing 48.8 Percent on the road outscoring road opponents by 6.8 points. This team has really improved. The Rebels on the other hand has had some up and down swings all year and and finished the season kinda cold only able to beat down the bad teams and hasn’t had a top 50 win since Feb 2nd. I really like Liberties defense and pace of play here. The early money drove this line down to 6.5 for a reason and I took this at +7. If you can find a 7 its a play and I also lean under
Liberty +7 and lean under 134
UCF vs VCU +1 O/U 126.5
Columbia, South Carolina
This is such an interesting game. 2 Mid Major type basketball conferences facing off. Both teams coming off disappointing losses in their conference tournaments. You have an amazing defense with VCU ranking 7th on Kenpom and you have the tallest guy in basketball with Tacko Fall on Central Florida. VCU plays a little bit faster than average but they shoot poorly at 43% on the road in a weaker division. UCF shoots a nice 46% on the road and outscores much of their opponents but how will UCF play against that pressure defense that VCU throws out there. The edge on offense goes to UCF ranking 90th in effective FG % while VCU ranks 177th. Both teams are really bad a shooting free throws with neither over 70%. I think the best play here is the first half under. Both of these teams will be feeling each other out in the beginning and both teams rank high in defending the 3 point shot.
First half under 58.5
Ohio State vs Iowa State -5.5 O/U 139.5
Tulsa, Oklahoma
Looks like Ohio State is going to Big 12 country to play Iowa State. Thank god Caleb Wesson is back for the Buckeyes. They are a terrible team without him. This is another offense vs Defense Game. Iowa State ranks 9th in offense against Ohio State’s 29th in defense while Ohio State’s offense ranks 75th against Iowa State’s 59th defense. I want to fade Ohio State here because they only shoot 39% on the road but Iowa State they have been pretty bad over the last month or so. Ohio State was bad but I liked the way that they played against Indiana and only losing to Michigan State by 7 in the Big 10 tournament.
Lean Ohio State +5.5
