There are 6 games in the South Region taking place today. 3 are broken down below, while the other 3 were broken down in my last post. I give out multiple official plays in this post, so be sure to read this in its entirety. Let’s have ourselves a Friday!
Arizona(-21.5) vs Wright State O/U 157–Thursday 6:27 PM CT
This is a pretty simple handicap for me… if I’m playing, I’m laying the points with Arizona. Wright State does excel in certain areas(2pt FG% and FT%, to be specific), but they can’t be considered a real threat to compete for 40 minutes in this game. You’ll be hard pressed to find many stats that take away from Arizona’s success, but one major element that could come into play is their (lack of) experience. Arizona is quite literally one of the youngest teams in the country, and they’ll also probably be without starting G Kerr Kriisa in this one. Arizona should win this game comfortably, but I won’t be on them today.
Houston(-8.5) vs UAB O/U 136.5–8:20 PM CT
Houston ranks 4th in KenPom, yet they are a 5 seed entering this Tournament. Sure, they’re underseeded, but this game will be no cake walk. UAB is a battle-tested bunch that caught fire in the C-USA Tournament; Jelly Walker is arguably the hottest player in College Basketball at the moment. The Blazers are efficient in both 2pt FG% and 3pt FG%, which should set up for a great battle facing off with a Houston defense that ranks just outside of the Top 10 in defensive efficiency. I understand the appeal of backing the Blazers here, but you have to consider that Houston ranks 1st in offensive rebounding percentage and should be able to carry that over into a matchup where they’ll have the considerable size advantage. However, the Cougars don’t shoot the lights out the ball, and strangely, this team really struggles from the free-throw line in a major way(66.9%), an area that always proves to be important at this time of the year. This is an appealing game for me to watch and learn more about each team as I prepare for Round 2, but not a game I’m rushing to bet or have a significant edge in. Houston does like to slow the tempo down, and all of UAB’s bigger non-conference matchups stayed under the total. I have the slightest of leans towards the Under here.
Seton Hall(PK) vs TCU O/U 128.5–8:57 PM CT
TCU plays a very stout brand of defense(24th in defensive efficiency), but my Lord is this offense just terrible. The Horned Frogs shoot just 30.4% from 3-point land(328th), 66.8% from the free-throw line(323rd), and hold a poor 0.9 assist/turnover ratio. They do rack up offensive rebounds at one of the highest clips in the sport, but I believe Seton Hall has the necessary size down low to negate some of those second chance points. Seton Hall also racks up 5.5 blocks/game(10th). With that said, Seton Hall doesn’t exactly light it up on the offensive end themselves. The Pirates turn the ball over at an equally poor rate as TCU, and this team specifically struggles in 2pt FG%. The Pirates shoot the 3-ball considerably better than TCU does, which should play a role in this game as these teams settle in. In a pick-em type spot like this, there are 2 key factors swinging LARGELY in Seton Hall’s direction. First, the Pirates are the far more experienced team, ranking 21st in that department. TCU is a young team that only ranks 308th in continuity. Second(and certainly not least), Seton Hall shoots their free-throws at an astronomically higher rate. While TCU hits their foul shots at a mere 66.8% clip, Seton Hall is very strong in that area, making 76% of their foul shots. I’m also inclined to believe that TCU is a bit overvalued after a few late season heroic performances at home, but especially for a young team, I can’t trust them to carry that over to the West Coast tonight. I am officially on Seton Hall PK and the 1H UNDER 60.5 for 1u each!
