Well we had a nice 2-2 night Tuesday. Notre Dame pulled another Notre Dame and only decided to play in the last 10 minutes, while Gonzaga clearly should have covered since they were down by 14 and surged back to win easily by 10. Again I feel we were on the right sides there but oh well. Follow me on Twitter if you don’t already– last night I put out live bets on the Flyers and Gonzaga when both were way down and they both hit. I do this routinely to help my followers and it makes for some exciting community wagers. Onto our hump day picks in college hoops!
NC State wins (+140), 2 units: This is a tough game to handicap on two teams who ended their seasons hot, albeit one a bit hotter than the other. The NC State Wolfpack enter Wednesday night winners of 5 in a row; Syracuse won 6 of their last 8. Syracuse has stacked up impressive wins against Notre Dame, North Carolina, and two against NC State. NC State’s marquee victories came against Virginia and Notre Dame. I’m more impressed by the Wolfpack’s streak though, since that UVA game was a PRIME spot for the Cavaliers and since 4 of the Wolfpack’s last 5 wins came away from their home court. NC State is a nice 6-3-1 ATS this year on the road. Syracuse– not so much. The Orangemen look like a different team on the road: they’re 2-7 ATS (22%) and they’ve allowed 81.8 ppg against conference opponents away from New York. Statistically, both teams are mostly evenly matched, but for me this is NC State’s opportunity to steal a win. They’re more apt away from home and they’ve ended the season on a real hot streak. Not to mention they have added motivation in a supreme revenge spot. Give me the team with more momentum and more to prove in an upset win to start off my Wednesday wagers!
Lean, Miami +9 (-110): Be careful betting this game. Miami is coming off a good win where they caught Pittsburgh last night but “da U” has been one of the more inconsistent and abysmal teams in the ACC. Clemson has been a bit up and down, too, although they did end the season winning 7 of their last 9 games. Clemson should win this game, but 9 points is a lot for a team that only beat Miami by 8 and 1 point margins this season. I expect Miami to play this game closer for most of the game, but the line at 9 is factoring in Clemson’s added rest and an expectant let-down spot for the Hurricanes. It’s probably dead on, but again– proceed with caution.
Marquette -2.5 (-115), 1 unit: My first gut reaction was to bet on Marquette today and I’m going to follow that feeling (it tends to be more right than we like to admit). I think the impulse came from the perception that Georgetown has been pretty horrible away from DC. At second glance, Georgetown is actually 4-4 ATS, so not too horrible, while Marquette is actually the worse away team at 5-7 ATS. Yet I still like Marquette (I know I’m not making much sense here). I like Marquette because of how their one and only game against the Hoyas looked earlier this year. I know it was back in early January, but how the game played out was revealing. The Golden Eagles visited Georgetown, where the Hoyas are definitely more comfortable and capable, and the home team was in full control for the first half of that game. Then Marquette started to slowly grind and come back. After starting off slow and overcoming an 18 point deficit, Jamal Cain and company edged out Georgetown for a 64-60 win. One could look at that outcome and look at a revenge wager on the Hoyas. I can see that. But what I see is a Hoyas team that was in a great spot at home and still lost to a better team. How will Georgetown fair in a tougher spot at cavernous Madison Square Garden? Marquette plays really good defense against close to mid-range shots, which is where the Hoyas bread their butter. They should also slow down the pace of the game today and force Georgetown to play out of rhythm, something they couldn’t do in the first contest but would have worked to their advantage. I’ll take what I see as a more resilient team that matches up well against their foe. Take Marquette.
Loyola MD/Army under 137.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Army is 3-0 ATS in neutral site games this year and 8-3 away from their home court. They have also been a much better and more consistent team than Loyola. That being said, Army ranks very highly in KenPom’s luck rating (40th in the nation) and have a rather crappy offense, particularly at the free throw line (ranked a staggering 346th overall in the country on Haslametrics). While I wanted to taker Army initially, I can’t do it (their ranking of 326th in positive momentum on Haslametrics doesn’t help either). Both of these teams rely and win games with their defenses, and both units are fantastic at preventing the other team from scoring at the mid-range level. No matter who you’re matching up against, this is a good prognosis for an under play since most NCAAM’s basketball is either won or lost between the rim and 3-point line. Neither team is inefficient at preventing near-proximity shots or long-range shooting either. In a game where both teams haven’t faced each other yet and one that should be played at a methodical pace, the under feels like the strongest play.
Nebraska +6.5 (-115), 1.5 units: This is just too many points for an up and down Nittany Lions team. Penn State lost once at home against the Cornhuskers and then beat Nebraska on the road by 3 points. Not sure what to take from that, but Nebraska tends to challenge opponents that can’t match their pace. Nebraska is exceptional on defense despite their fast tempo, which can really throw teams off. Unless your Iowa or Michigan or Illinois, it’s unlikely that the Cornhuskers will be overly intimidated or forced to reinvent their style. Penn State is rated more highly on KenPom and Haslametrics and ranked higher in the Big 10, but I think these are two pretty even teams, especially on a neutral court. I’ve taken the Nittany Lions is good spots this year and it’s paid dividends here and there, but I like this spot better for a Nebraska team coming off 2 losses against a team they know they can beat. In my opinion, Penn State’s recent above-average defensive performances against Maryland and Minnesota are more about the disappointing play of those teams– Penn State’s defense has allowed a ton of points in 2021 and Nebraska’s offense has actually looked better since losing their star guard Teddy Allen. This line is sneaky at 6.5; it’s daring you to take the team from Happy Valley. I wouldn’t. I don’t think the Nittany Lions have the offensive prowess to glide into an easy 2+ possession win tonight. Take the Cornhuskers getting points.
Marshall -9.5 (-110), 2 units: This is another revealing line in a game that plays right into Marshall’s wheelhouse. Rice and Marshall have yet to face each other in the 2020-2021 season, which I think is a pretty significant factoid for today’s showdown. Rice could have used a game in-season against the Thundering Herd to study matchups and hope to adjust today, but they have no such film. Marshall plays with a very fast tempo and scores over 80 ppg. Rice plays with a fairly fast tempo and plays some of the worst defense in Conference USA (and in the nation, for that matter). That’s a recipe for 40 minutes of basketball that could get out of hand quick. Rice overcame a near comeback last night against a very inferior conference team in Southern Miss. The Owls cannot afford to let Marshall gain steam tonight or it’ll be a very different story; Marshall is a huge upgrade in class from the bottom-feeder they faced Tuesday. The Thundering Herd are resilient, too, ranked 8th in the country in “away-from-home” stats on Haslametrics. This game is a really great setup for a blowout and I can’t find a reason to think otherwise. Marshall wins by substantial double digits in this one.
