UNC Greensboro gave us the big win we needed last night in college hoops; I was dead wrong about Appalachian State– well done Mountaineers!– and the other two losses were just bad beats. As I noted on my twitter account, Sometimes you have the right side and you still lose. Bet the right side the right way long term and you’ll come out on top more often. Let’s move onto Tuesday with another full slate of conference tournament play!
Iona -5.5 (-110), 1.5 units: This game sets up well for the Iona Gaels. Heading into their conference tournament winning 6 of their last 8 games, one of Iona’s only losses to end the year was against Quinnipiac. Of course that was on the road and coincided with a stretch of ineffective offense to end the 1st half, not to mention a host of turnovers throughout the game that gave the Bobcats easy buckets. Iona is harder to predict than most MAAC teams since they haven’t played as many games. COVID struck them hard this season. When they have played, we’ve learned a few things about the Gaels– they’re great at preventing shot attempts (ranked 21st on Haslametrics) and they have issues turning the ball over. They also have arguably the best player in the MAAC in guard Isaiah Ross, who led the conference in scoring with 20.5 points a game. Even better, he’s shooting 48.9% from the floor and a ridiculous 41.4% behind the arc. The Bobcats are a decent team capable of playing great defense at times, but there are too many intangibles working against them today. Iona has the revenge angle, the best player on the court, and easily the best coach. Rick Pitino will have the kids ready to play– just like he did after that long layoff win against Manhattan– and I have to believe Iona will clean up their turnover problem in this rematch. Better play, better angle, way better coach– give me the Gaels to win by more than 2 possessions.
Notre Dame -8 (-110), 1.5 units: Does Notre Dame deserve to be favored by 8 here on a neutral court? To the layperson, maybe not. Casual bettors often misinterpret the reasons behind handicapping. The books list lines at a certain number not because they think that’s exactly where the game will land, but because it’s the best estimate of where they project the public thinks the game will land. That creates the most bets on both sides, which guarantees them money. If you’re like me and you’ve been burned by the Irish, it’s hard to take their side. Notre Dame tends to play down to their competition or play way up to their competition, so they’re a bit tough to predict. The Irish were surging for awhile in February, only to finish losing 4 of their last 5. They beat Florida State in their last contest, which was quite impressive, but that might’ve been more about the Seminoles letting themselves down once again on the road. I’m choosing Notre Dame today based on how they should perform against the Demon Deacons. Wake Forest is not on the same level as the Irish. Although they may be more similar on defense, Notre Dame has a prolific offense capable of stacking up points against any Division 1 opponent. They’re great at near-proximity shots (ranked 13th on Haslametrics) and at 3-point shooting (ranked 54th on Haslametrics), making them a difficult scoring team to defend. Wake Forest really struggles on the defensive end of the floor and Notre Dame should be able to pull away like they did in their first matchup. The Demon Deacons, although going up against an average defense today, are not nearly competent enough to keep up with the Irish. They’re also ranked near the bottom of the nation (345th) in momentum right now, playing some of their worst basketball of the year to end the season. Lightning could strike and demolish our bet on the Irish once again, but the right side is Notre Dame.
Cleveland State -2 (-115), 2 units: Oakland played the perfect game yesterday to steal a win over Northern Kentucky. The Norse only shot 33.3% from the field and a subpar 23% from beyond the arc. They also turned the ball over 5 more times than the Grizzlies. Oakland has some positive momentum heading into tonight’s Horizon Conference Final but I don’t buy it. Defense will be the difference in this game. Ranked 108th in defensive efficiency on Haslametrics, the Vikings boast one of the better units in the conference. They’re especially good defending the long-ball, holding opponents to only 29.3% in three-point shooting percentage, which is 12th in the nation. While the Vikings’ offense isn’t as prolific, Oakland won’t be able to pull away in this contest, even if they’re winning the turnover battle and shooting well above their norm. These two teams faced one another on Oakland’s home hardwood twice earlier this year. Twice Oakland was bested by Cleveland State. In the first matchup, the Vikings led and controlled the entire contest. The second game only ended by a 2 point margin, but Oakland shot a ridiculous 54.4% from the field, a full 6 percentage points better than Cleveland State. And Cleveland State still won. This game should look more like their first matchup, and it can’t help the Grizzlies that it’s on a neutral court this time. I’ll take Cleveland State by one humble possession.
Gonzaga -13 (-110), 2 units: I was hoping to bet on BYU tonight, thinking the Cougars would take care of business in a big fashion Monday night. Instead, Pepperdine was competitive for all 40 minutes and pushed the game into overtime. BYU took over in extra innings, but I don’t like their outlook heading into tonight against the nation’s #1 team. Unlike Baylor and Michigan and many top 25 teams that had fluctuating performances to end the regular season, Gonzaga has given us no reason to believe they’re taking their foot off the gas. The Bulldogs only scored 1 point in the final 4 minutes of yesterday’s first tournament game against St. Mary’s and they still won by 23 points. If you have a shot at beating Gonzaga, you gotta play perfect basketball. Last time BYU faced the nation’s #1 team they were at home in an ideal spot and still lost by 11. In their first battle of the year, they lost at Gonzaga by 17. The Bulldogs match up well with everyone but I especially like how they’ll match up tonight. Playing an OT game late into the night (St. Mary’s vs. Gonzaga started 2 hours earlier, too) to me means the BYU defense will be tired Tuesday. Not a great prognosis against a team that scores over 91 ppg. Gonzaga, on the other hand, probably feels like they just played a scrimmage game, easily coasting through the 2nd half against the Gaels last night. Despite what some pundits might tell you, Gonzaga cares about winning the West Coast Conference Tournament and winning it with authority. Better spot, neutral court, and perhaps the best team in America– the Bulldogs should cover.
