NFC NORTH: As expected, the NFC North proved to be the strongest division in football producing three out of four playoff contenders. Clear, the big surprise was the Minnesota Vikings fighting for the top spot in the NFC with the Lions. The smaller surprise for some was the Chicago Bears once again achieving the status of poorly run organization. Unfortunately, rather than taking a step up on an easy schedule, the Bears choked most of their games away due to little to no leadership. The Packers were solid, but not good enough to pass the eye test, while the Lions hit the injury bug so bad that it finally caught up to them in the playoffs. For 2025, the football gods did this tough division no favors as they have to play the NFC East with the Eagles, Commanders and Cowboys lurking, as well as the AFC North which has two of the four best quarterbacks in the nation. Not to mention, these NFC North teams all have to play each other twice. The squad that prevails out of this division will certainly be battle tested. The most underrated aspect of the NFC North is that it has some great coaching. I doubt we get three playoff teams again this year, but I could certainly see two. Let’s dig in.
Divisional Futures: Lions +140 – Packers +260 – Vikings +400 – Bears +425
1. Detroit Lions –
Vegas Win Total: 10.5
2024 Wins: 15
Pythagorean Wins: 13.35
Schedule: Hard – At large games vs @Kansas City, vs Tampa Bay, @LA Rams
Schedule last year: Hard
Key Losses: OC Ben Johnson, DC Terry Glenn, CB Carlton Davis, G Kevin Zeitler, CB Ifeatu Melifonwu, Edge Za’Darius Smith
Key additions: CB DJ Reed, DT Levi Onwuzurike, DT Roy Lopez
Who they drafted: DL Tyleik Williams, G Tate Ratledge, WR Isaac TeSlaa, G Miles Frazier
Summary: The Lions were statistically the best team in the league with statistically the worst injury luck that at team could have. Defensive coordinator Terry Glenn had to pick up guys off of the scrap heap just to have a defensive line. Even with that said, these Lions were once again Ferocious winning 15 games with the highest Pythagorean wins of 13.35. The problem that we are now asking, is if the Lions have missed their super bowl window. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson stayed as long as he possibly could with this team before taking over the Chicago Bears. The Lions turn to John Morton to come back from Denver to take over as the new OC. The same questions on the other side of the ball can be said for defense as Terry Glenn shot off to the Jets. The Lions looked internal to fill this open position in promoting Kelvin Sheppard. As good as the Lions were last year, I have to assume Dan Campbell isn’t a huge Xs and Os coach, and this team will be relying on their new coordinators for success. Still, this Lions team is loaded and they get guys back like Edge Aiden Hutchinson and three technique Alim McNeil back from injuries. Their win total is low from what they accomplished over the last two years due to having the third hardest schedule in the league. Although, that hard schedule didn’t matter last year did it? The good news for the Lions is that they have the largest net-rest advantage of all teams. Detroit does not get a team coming off a bye week. They net themselves +13 days of rest. If everything works out, the Lions could be the top team in the NFC.
Action: Over 10.5 wins +100 – .5 stars (FD) & to win the NFC North +140- .5 stars (FD)
Detroit Lions Power Rating: 6.25
2. Minnesota Vikings
Vegas Win total: 8.5 juiced to the over -145
2024 Wins: 14
Pythagorean Wins: 11.8
Schedule: Hard – At large games vs Atlanta, @LA Chargers, @Seattle
Schedule Last year: Hard
Key Losses: QB Sam Darnold, S Camryn Bynum, T Cam Robinson, OLB Patrick Jones, C Garrett Bradbury, CB Stephon Gilmore, CB Shaq Griffen, G Dalton Risner
Key Additions: G Will Fries, DT Jonathan Allen, DT Javon Hargrave, C Ryan Kelly, CB Isaiah Rogers, LB Eric Wilson
Who they drafted: G Donovan Jackson, WR Tai Felton, Edge Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins
Summary: Last season, the Vikings basically blew everyone’s expectations away by a large margin. Sam Darnold’s performance basically came out of nowhere with some of the best quarterback play in the game during most of the regular season. It sure doesn’t hurt to have Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison to throw that ball to. In saying that, let’s be honest, Most of the Vikings success was all due to great coaching from Kevin O’Connell. Now the question is, can their first round draft pick in JJ McCarthy put up the same production for 2025/2026 with the Vikings high powered offense. I actually think that he can. JJ was a winner in Michigan and he should bring back that attitude with a lot to prove. Letting Sam Darnold walk was the correct move. In saying that, this Vikings team lost probably a bit more then they got back in free agency and the draft. I think that the secondary takes a hit with the losses of Stephon Gilmore and Shaq Griffen. Looking at the draft, I do not understand reaching for a wide receiver in the second round when there are other holes to fill. In saying all this, I think that once again, this Vikings team could compete with the Lions for the division. Their defense ranked 2nd in EPA, and I do not see Brian Flores going anywhere. The Vikings schedule is hard, but that depends more on what your feelings are for their at large games and the back to back games in the UK against two teams with quarterback issues in the Steelers and Browns. The win total seems pretty low for this team at 8.5, but I could see a scenario where the luck runs out for the Vikings. I lean over, and will grab the Vikings to win the division to join my lions play as more of a combination play against the Bears and the Packers.
My season number: 10.09
Action – Strong lean over 8.5 and to win division at +400 – .5 stars (DK)
Vikings Power Rating: 3
3. Green Bay Packers –
Vegas Win Total – 9.5 juiced to the over -120
2024 Wins: 11
Pythagorean Wins: 11.63.
Schedule: Medium Hard – At large games @ Arizona, vs Carolina, @ Denver
Schedule Last year: Hard
Key Losses: DT Tedarrell Slaton, CB Eric Stokes, ILB Eric Wilson, C Josh Myers
Key Additions: G Aaron Banks, CB Nate Hobbs
Who they drafted: WR Matthew Golden, T Anthony Belton, WR Savion Williams
Summary: If the Packers have one thing, it is great coaching. Green Bay continues to over achieve from my personal perspective and the market forecasts, yet their Pythagorean win total states that they even underachieved some at 11 wins. My biggest problem with the Packers is that I do not believe that their Quarterback Jordan Love is all that good. I feel that they achieve wins by beating up on all of the bad to average teams, while continuing to lose all of their important games against the very good to great teams. Lots of sharp folks like the Packers to take a step forward this year and win the division. I am just not there yet as I am confused with what they did in free agency. The Packers needed help in the secondary, as well as the pass rush. Instead Brian Gutenkunst went and drafted wide receivers, partly to appease the draft attendance crowd in Green Bay, and also to give Jordan love more outs. What they really needed was defense. The Packers only ranked 16th in pressure rate with a very low blitz percentage of 17.3%. If you look at the Packers schedule, some think that getting the third place schedule is beneficial. That also depends on your thoughts of playing at large games at Arizona and at Denver. I won’t go under their win total, but I do feel the number is correct as Matt Lefleur can possibly just coach this team to 10 wins.
My season number: 9.82 wins
Action: No play
Green Bay’s power rating: – 3
4. Chicago Bears –
Vegas Win Total 8.5
2024 Wins: 5
Pythagorean Wins: 6.72
Schedule: Medium Hard – At large games @ Las Vegas, vs New Orleans, @ San Francisco
Schedule Last year: Medium Hard
Key Losses: Coach Matt Eberflus, C/G Coleman Shelton, OLB Darrell Taylor, G Teven Jenkins, OLB Jake Martin, T Larry Borom, WR Keenan Allen, DE DeMarcus Walker
Key Additions: Coach Ben Johnson, DC Dennis Allen, DE Dayo Odeyingbo, DT Grady Jarrett, C Drew Dalman, QB Case Keenum, G Joe Thuney, G Jonah Jackson
Who they drafted: TE Colston Loveland, WR Luther Burden III, T Ozzy Tapilo, DL Shemar Turner and a bunch of dudes.
Summary: If you thought the Bears had big changes last year, how about a new coaching regime for 2025? This Bears team were huge under-achievers last year as they had no leadership or a coach that knows much about football or even team chemistry. I am not going to hold back in saying that I really like the Ben Johnson hire, and if it wasn’t for the Bears not making a run at Jim Harbaugh, I might say it was the best coaching hire from all teams over the past three years. Now for the bad. I have to be honest, and say that the jury is still out on Caleb Williams. His confidence was shattered last year taking the most sacks in franchise history. Caleb did not look accurate, but he at least didn’t turn the ball over as much as one might have thought. The good news is that the Bears did a lot to improve their team. Signing DT Grady Jarrett and Edge rusher Dayo Odeyingbo was solid. I like the Bears draft some, but I actually love the money spent on the offensive line even more. I expect Chicago to run multiple two tight end sets with Ben Johnson’s offense as well as possibly putting their top draft pick TE Colston Loveland at times in the slot. This Bears team will be as good as Ben Johnson can make them. His first task is designing plays where Caleb doesn’t have to be superman in the first half. If Ben can scheme some guys open on quick throws and roll outs, Caleb Williams could certainly look pretty good and get his confidence back on track. I suspect the Bears to struggle out of the gate and get better as the season goes on.
My season number: 7.86 wins
Action – Lean Under
Chicago Bears Power rating: -4
*Blue color means still not signed*Blue color means hasn’t signed with a team
