NFC South has a medium hard schedule. This division has had a lot of ups and downs last year and the the 2020 schedule doesn’t look easy. They have to play the NFC North who is pretty good and they also have to play the AFC West which has an up and coming Raiders and Broncos team. Don’t forget the Superbowl Champ Kansas City Chiefs. The most interesting thing to watch will be how Tom Brady does with the Tampa bay Buccaneers because the hype factor on this team is literally through the roof.
1. New Orleans Saints – Vegas Win Total 10.5
Schedule: Medium Hard – at large games vs the 49ers and the Packers
Key Losses: QB Teddy Bridgewater, SS Vonn Bell, OLB AJ Klein
Key additions: QB Jameis Winston, FS Malcom Jenkins, WR Emmanuel Sanders,
Whom they drafted: C/G Caesar Ruiz, LB Zach Baun
Summary: Not a lot of draft picks here. The Saints did retain a lot of talent but I am concerned a little about their secondary getting older and losing Vonn Bell. That might be the only weakness minus Drew Brees’s age. I really like the Jameis Winston pickup because if anyone could help pry his head out of his ass, it’s Sean Peyton. The Saints have always been overachievers until they hit the playoffs. Their Pythagorean win total was only 10.9 compared to their 13 wins. They really didn’t do a ton in free agency and I do like Emmanuel Sanders but he is just going to kinda replace Ted Ginn. I have the Saints at 11.5 wins this year.
Action: lean over
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Win total at 9.5 juiced to the over (-140) so actually 9.8
Schedule: – Medium – At large games vs the Bears and the Rams
Key losses: DE Carl Nassib, DT Beau Allen, QB Jameis Winston, RB Peyton Barber
Key additions: QB Tom Brady, T Joe Haeg,
Whom they drafted: T Tristan Wirfs, S Antoine Winfield, WR Tyler Johnson, DL Khalil Davis
Summary: Obviously landing Tom Brady is the biggest thing that Tampa has ever done in free agency, but at the same time, Jameis Winston wasn’t all that bad. He threw for over 5100 yards last year and part of the reason that he had 30 interceptions was due to the fact that their secondary was so bad last year and the Bucs had to play catch-up. My biggest worry here is that they really didn’t try to fix their secondary in free agency or the draft so I have to wonder if Tom Brady is going to be throwing the ball 40-50 times per game. Being that this team gained Brady, I have to award them 2 more wins over Winston in this medium schedule. The rest of the gains and losses are really a wash in my opinion but this only brings this team to 9.6 wins which is close to their win total.
Action: Lean under
3. Atlanta Falcons – Win total is 7.5 juiced to the over (-130)
Schedule: Hard – Atlanta plays the Seahawks and the Cowboys for at large. Not really easy.
Key losses: TE Austin Hooper, Edge Vic Beasley, G Wes Schweitzer, CB Desmond Trufant, OLB Devondre Campbell, RB Devonte Freeman
Key additions: RB Todd Gurley, DE Dante Fowler, G Justin McCray, TE Hayden Hurst
Whom they drafted: CB AJ Terrell, DL Marlon Davidson, LB MyCal Walker
Summary: This team somehow eked out 7 wins last year while having a tough schedule. They started out 1-7 and somehow won their last 4 games in a row including at San Francisco. Well this year the schedule is even worse ranking the hardest in the league and they strangely start out the season with both of their at large games vs Seattle and week 2 at Dallas. The Seahawks were actually pretty healthy most of the year but they lost a ton of their talent. They replaced TE Austin Hooper with Hayden Hurst who hasn’t proved anything yet in the league. Theyalso didn’t resign Devonte Freeman and replaced him with an ailing Todd Gurley who has been very mysterious. The F alcons lost some top 5 guys on their team defense in Devondre Campbell, Desmond Trufant and Vic Beasley. I had to punish this team 2 full games with what they lost and I only gave them back .5 for free agency and draft. I am liking the under 7.5 for plus money
Action: Under 7.5 +110
4. Carolina Panthers – Win total is 5.5
Schedule: Medium Hard – At large games vs the Cardinals and the Redskins.
Key losses: Coach Riverboat Ron Rivera, CB James Bradberry, DE Mario Addison, DT Gerald McCoy, DT Vernon Butler, TE Greg Olsen, DE Bruce Irvin, G Tre Turner, QB Cam Newton isn’t a key loss to the numbers being that he didn’t play much.
Key additions: Coach Matt Rhule and Offensive Coordinator Joe Brady, QB Teddy Bridgewater, WR Robby Anderson, WR Stephon Weatherly, T Russell Okung
Whom they drafted: DL Derrick Brown, Edge Yatur Gross-Matos, S Jeremy Chinn, CB Troy Pride
Summary: Carolina was very injured last year and it all started with Cam Newton and his issues with his Foot this year and it seems he regressed anyway due to his ankles, shoulder and back. I can’t give back for that injury as he won’t be the starting QB this year for the Panthers. From what it looks like, the Panthers started their rebuild by drafting a ton of defense and shedding some big contracts. The thing that I love for the future of this team is obviously the hire of Coach Matt Rhule from Baylor and OC Joe Brady from LSU. WOW. If you are a Panther fan you have to be excited for the future with these two guys. Carolina had the second hardest schedule last year and they have a medium hard one this year. In saying that, I think that it is actually possible to win some games if Teddy Bridgewater plays well. We actually saw some great games from this team last year until they got extremely injured in the middle of the season. We also have to remember that they still have Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore as weapons. This team could surprise some people and I am leaning over and would take it if it wasn’t for such a hard schedule.
Action: Lean over
