Washington vs Carolina -3 O/U 43
Both teams are it a let down spot here. I think Washington’s let down is larger here because they beat the super bowl champs and Carolina beat a great team with a backup quarterback in the Cardinals. Now I’m not a big Cam Newton fan but he seems to always start well and he is really hyping this team up high. Washington has the better offense by some stretch of the imagination but Carolina has the much better defense here ranking 2 in opponent EPA per play. Carolina has a .4 net yard per play advantage, but Washington has had the much harder schedule so that number is close to a wash but losing Montez Sweat and Chase young will hurt Washington’s pass rush and in defending the screens to CMC. I think there is a much better path to victory with the Panthers than with the WFT.
Carolina – 3 – 2.5 stars
Indianapolis vs Buffalo -7 O/U 49
Ok My total number on this game was 48 but that was before the weather report was showing cold weather, high winds, and rain during the second half of this game. The Passing game should be a lot more limited here and the run game will be utilized. In saying that, the Bills rank number 1 in opponent rush EPA and the Colts rank number 3. On offense the Colts are number 2 in rush EPA per play while the Bills rank 14th. I am very concerned for Carson Wentz here if they get behind as the Bills rank number 2 in pressure rate. In saying that, this is a high spread for a weather compromised game so the under I think is the best play here.
Under 49 – 2 stars
6 PT Teaser – Cowboys to +8.5 with the Bears to +11 – 1.5 stars
