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Colts vs Titans -2.5 O/U 43.5
I am not going to rush into this one but I do like the Colts here and I have them winning this game outright. This team feels a lot like last year where they had to take the time to get going with a new quarterback. There is just too much talent on this team in my opinion to take lightly. The Colts have quietly moved to 16 in defensive EPA even without their leader in Shaquille Leonard. The are coming off of a bye which is good for them, but they are still quite injured on the offensive line without any quality receivers. Tennessee has a massive weaknesses on defense allowing 7.9 passing yards per attempt as well as 4.5 yards per rush. This puts them at a net negative yards per play at -1.4 while the Colts are close to even. Now that Pittman is healthy, the Colts have a better passing game, and they also should be getting stud running back Jonathan Taylor from injury. I think this will be a close game but I also have the Colts winning this by 1. Try and wait for a three here.
Colts +3 -120 – 2 stars
Atlanta vs Cincinnati -6 O/U 47.5
What have we heard all year? Atlanta will have regression. Atlanta will have regression. Well, lots of burnt up tickets this year from that. I regret buying back some last week on the 49ers, but I was also quite happy to see the Falcons as another big dog here. The Bengals are a good team, but certainly not great. They were out-gained last week against the Saints, and might have lost the game without one huge play to Jamar Chase late in the 4th quarter. Atlanta is relatively healthy thus far and they have some big targets for Mariota to throw to in Kyle Pitts and Drake London. Marcus has been great with his legs so far this year and the Bengals have struggled against mobile quarterbacks such as Mitch Trubisky, and Lamar Jackson. The big thing for me here is that both teams seem to play a lot of close games. Four of the Bengals 6 games were decided by 4 points or less while the Falcons haven’t lost a game by more than six points themselves. I think that Atlanta could once again make a little noise here. The Falcons perform well as a dog and they are 6-0 ATS their last 6 games. Take the dirty birds here to cover.
Falcons +6 – 2 stars
