The NHL has 6 games going tonight with the highlighted matchup being the Colorado Avalanche vs the Toronto Maple Leafs. I breakdown that game below and offer my pick for what should be an exciting showdown.
Colorado Avalanche @ Toronto Maple Leafs
- Time: 7:30 PM ET
- TV Coverage: ESPN+
- Colorado Avalanche: 11-6-1, 4th Central (4-4-0 Away)
- Toronto Maple Leafs: 16-6-1, 1st Atlantic (9-3-1 Home)
| Team | Opening ML | Current ML | Spread | Total |
| Colorado Avalanche | -101 | +110 | +1.5 (-220) | o6.0 (+100) |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | -109 | -130 | -1.5 (+180) | u6.0 (-120) |
Trends:
- The total has gone OVER in 8 of Colorado’s last 10 games.
- Colorado are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto’s last 7 games.
- Toronto are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games.
Preview:
What a treat we have tonight as the Colorado Avalanche travel to Toronto to take on the Leafs. There’s several storylines in this game starting with the return of Nathan MacKinnon to the Avalanche lineup after missing 8 games. MacKinnon had a great start to the season tallying 10 points in his first 8 games before suffering a lower body injury back in November.
Another storyline to follow is the return of Nazem Kadri. He’ll be playing in his first game in Toronto since he was traded to Colorado back in 2019. At the time to Leafs had limited solutions to their salary cap woes and were forced to move Kadri for some relief.
Colorado Avalanche
The Av’s have had an up and down start to the season but, have seemd to have found their footing. Right now Colorado is one of the hottest teams in the League and gets their star Center back who had 65 points last season.
Offensively, Colorado has averaged 5.38 goals for during the last 8 games propelling them to a 7-1 run. The only game that they lost was last Friday to the Stars, where they only scored once. Despite the loss, Colorado beat Dallas in Expected Goals, 3.07-2.84. The only reason they lost was due to the play of Jake Oettinger who finished the game with a +1.99 GSAx.
They have one of the best xGoal % (54.54%) and Goals For Above Expected (6.07) in the NHL. Colorado averages 4 goals per game, which ranks 1st, and are still scoring at a higher rate as of late. The Avalanche have only generated 35 High Danger Chances on the year, which is middle of the pack. Despite this, they still have the best goals for average making them even more dangerous. With MacKinnon out, Kadri has stepped up, and leads the team with 27 points through 20 games.
Defensively, the Avalanche have struggled as seen by their +6.05 Goals Against Above Expected. Colorado also ranks near the bottom of the League in Goals Against Per 60 with a 2.55. Although the Avalanche’s have had some woes defensively, Cale Makar has been a bright spot averaging 1.25 goals per game. Another positive aspect of this Colorado defense is that they have only allowed 28 High Danger Shots Against.
Darcy Kuemper is expected to get the start going 9-5-0 in his starts this season. I don’t normally like to include the goalies record because it’s more of an indicator of team play, and that’s precisely what it is here. Based on individual goalie analytics, Kuemper hasn’t been great posting a -3.7 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx). Kuemper was expected to take over for Phillip Grubauer, who signed with the Kraken in the off season. However, Grubauer posted a +5.2 GSAx last season and clearly Darcy Kuemper isn’t close to that number. The bad news for the Av’s is that Kuemper doesn’t look to be turning it around and backup Jonas Johansson is also struggling (-8.8 GSAx).
Toronto Maple Leafs
Well enough talk of the Colorado Avalanche, lets talk about the Toronto Maple Leafs. The Maple Leafs have turned things around after a less than ideal start to the year going 1-4 in their first 5 games. They are currently on a four game win streak and tied for 1st in the Atlantic with the Florida Panthers. Like the team, Austin Matthews had a slow start to the season but, has found his groove as of late. He was ridiculed by the Toronto media but fired a shot back a few nights ago saying “Honestly, could care less about what you guys say”.
While the Maples Leafs only average 2.87 goals for on the year, they have been much better during this four game winning streak averaging 4.5 per game. Toronto has one of the best xGoals % of 55.35%, while having one of the worst Goals For Above Expected with a -12.77. The Leafs have generated 53 High Danger Chances on the year as well. All these stats indicate that while Toronto has been generating scoring chances, but they’re failing to capitalize on these chances. Captain, and Canadian native, John Tavares leads the team in points with 22 through 22 games. One injury to monitor for the Leafs is Ondrej Kase, who is out indefinitely with an upper body injury. He’s not a house hold name like some other players on this team, but has the best xGoals Per 60 on the team with a +1.3.
On the opposite side of the puck, the Maple Leads have been solid. They currently are allowing the 2nd least goals per game averaging just 2.13. However, this may be an indicator of goalie play rather than defensive ability which I’ll touch on later. Toronto also has the 2nd best Goals Above Expected with a -12.77. Although, the Leafs have put Jack Campbell in a tough spot more times than than the league average, allowing 39 High Danger Shots Against.
Speaking of Jack Campbell, he is expected to get the start in net for the Toronto Maple Leafs tonight. He’s been sensational this year, and has stolen several games for them. Campbell has a +16.7 GSAx only behind Sergei Bobrovsky of the Panthers. In his last 5 starts, he has only given up 6 goals (1.2 GAA).
Pick:
Looking at the line for tonight, the early action has already started to come in on Toronto. The Leafs opened around -110 on the moneyline but, have shifted to -130. I understand this partly due to the Maple Leafs current form, and the advantage in net. However, they have not played an offense as loaded as Colorado’s and a team that can go goal-for-goal with them. If this game goes under the total, currently 6, I like the Leafs, but, if the total goes over, then I give the advantage to Colorado. So what’s my angle?
Both teams have similar puck possession stats, based on the chart from LeftWingLock. Putting personal bias aside, as a Avalanche fan growing up, I see the Maple Leafs spoiling Kadri’s coming home party. While the Closing Line Value on Toronto isn’t great, I think the combination Toronto’s new found ability to score and advantage in net, pushes them over Colorado in a close one. Given my Toronto pick, I also lean under 6.0 in this game.
PICK: TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS (-130)
Other plays for tonight:
- SEATTLE KRAKEN/ DETROIT RED WINGS OVER 5.5 (-110)
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
