NHL Preview & Picks – March 10th, 2022

We have a massive slate of NHL games today, I’ll breakdown the marquee matchup of the night between the Colorado Avalanche and Carolina Hurricanes. I also have one more pick in addition to that game as well. There’s also a few player props to watch out for at the end of the article. Given the time, the lines are not out as of yet so no official plays there.

Colorado Avalanche @ Carolina Hurricanes

• Time: 7:00 PM ET
• TV Coverage: ESPN+
• Colorado Avalanche: 41-12-5, 1st Central (18-9-2 Away)
• Carolina Hurricanes: 29-12-5, 1st Metropolitan (21-4-2 Home)

Trends:

• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Colorado’s last 5 games.
• Colorado are 10-3 SU in their last 13 games on the road.
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina’s last 6 games.
• Carolina are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games at home.

Previous Matchups:

• No Previous Matchups this season

Preview:

Colorado Avalanche

The Avalanche are coming off a 5-3 loss to the New Jersey Devils on Tuesday. They did have a game the night before, so it wasn’t a great spot for them. Colorado has a tough stretch of games coming up taking on Carolina tonight and Calgary on Sunday, a team they lost against last week.

Colorado is one of the best offensive teams in the NHL ranking 2nd in Goals For per game averaging 3.91. In their last 10, they’ve struggled a bit only averaging 3.70. One player who has particularly struggled in the past few games is Mikko Rantanen, who’s second on the team in points. He’s collected only two points over the course of the past five games. The Avalanche rank 4th in Shots on Goal for averaging 35.30 and have actually exceeded that number in their last 10 games, averaging 35.60. The change is pretty much negligible, as the main reason for their decrease in offensive production comes from their Shooting %. This change in Shooting % over the past 10 games isn’t a lot but, does have an effect on their Goals For average.  The Av’s Power Play ranks 10th and has been slightly worse as of late, to be specific 3% worse. While this isn’t a major factor, Colorado isn’t great on faceoffs, while Carolina is very good. This is going to lead to increased puck possession for the Hurricanes and given how tight this game is going to be, could play a major role.

Just like their offense, the Avalanche have been struggling on defense as of late. On the season they average 2.88 Goals Against per game, ranking 14th but, in their last 10 they’ve given up an average of 3.30 per game. In those past 10 games, they’re averaging almost four more Shots Against which isn’t great as Colorado’s goaltending has been inconsistent at times. Their Penalty Kill ranks 22nd with an 76.3% success rate and have allowed five Power Play goals against in their last three games. Bowen Byram remains out indefinitely with a head injury.

Darcy Kuemper is expected to get the start for the Avalanche tonight. He’s allowed three or more goals in his past three appearances. However, he has been solid this year ranking 7th in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) with a +13.5. If Kuemper doesn’t start, it will be Pavel Francouz. He hasn’t been bad this year either with a +2.4 GSAx in 14 games played.

Carolina Hurricanes

The Hurricanes are 7-1-2 in their last 10 games, and coming off a few days rest. They’ll begin a two game homestand tonight where they’ll face Colorado then Philadelphia on Saturday. After those two games, Carolina has an extremely tough stretch of games.

While Carolina is a solid offensive team, they don’t put up as many goals as Colorado does. They average 3.39 Goals For per game on the year and have only averaged 3.00 Goals For in their past 10 games. One area that this Hurricane’s team can exploit tonight is on the man advantage. They rank 2nd in terms of Power Play % and have been even better as of late. Teuvo Teravainen leads the team in Power Play points so that may a prop worth looking at. Teravainen has also been hot as of late collecting at least a point per game in nine of the last ten. The Hurricanes average the 9th most Shots on Goal per game and face a team giving up the 14th most against. They have been slightly below their Shooting % as of late when compared to their season average.

The Hurricanes currently have the best defense in the NHL in terms of Goals Against averaging 2.39. In their last 10, they’ve been slightly worse averaging 2.50. This isn’t a major concern as the difference isn’t miniscule and teams go through swings during the year. While Colorado does average the 4th most Shots on Goal For, Carolina averages the 3rd least Shots on Goal Allowed. These are obviously two very fast paced teams so I’m curious as to see who gets the edge tonight. Their Penalty Kill ranks 1st with a 88.9% success rate. They’ve been slightly below this margin as of late and have given up four Power Play goals in their last four games. One of their main defenseman, Tony DeAngelo remains out with an upper body injury and is expected to return later this month. Despite missing some games, he’s still fourth on the team in points which shows you how big of a loss he is.

We’re not sure who’s going to get the start for Carolina in net tonight. Starting goaltender Frederick Anderson is listed as day-to-day with an undisclosed injury. He’s been one of the best goalies this year, ranking 2nd in GSAx with a +28.5! If Anderson doesn’t get the nod, Antti Raanta will get the start. He’s also been great this year with a +5.1 GSAx ranking 19th.

Pick

• COLORADO AVALANCHE (-110) – Barstool
  • The Av’s are coming off a brutal loss against the Devils. As I mentioned before, it was a terrible spot for them. They have rebounded well this year after losing games to inferior opponents. This game also means more for Colorado who’s the current favorite to win the Stanley Cup. They had a disappointing post season last year and honestly need this win to prove that they can beat very good teams. Also with Anderson being questionable, I like the Avalanche even more here. This is a very tough game to pick a side here but I do like Colorado especially given the line movement.

Other Picks on the Night:

• ANAHEIM DUCKS/ NASHVILLE PREDATORS OVER 5.5 (-115) – DRAFTKINGS
  • In Anaheim’s last 10, they average 3.00 Goals For and 4.60 Goals Against. In Nashville’s last 10, they average 3.10 Goals For and 3.10 Goals Against. It looks like John Gibson will get the start for the Ducks tonight who has given up 5 goals a piece in his last two starts. Juuse Saros will likely get the start for the Predators who’s been solid as of late. This is a tough one for sure, especially with the total being set so low. However, based on each teams recent games, I think they can generate at least 6 goals here.

Revenge Angle – Player Props (Not official plays):

• Jack Eichel Anytime Goal Scorer or Points
  • Eichel was traded to Vegas earlier this season after publicly voicing his distain with the Sabres front office. He returns to Buffalo for the first time since this trade and will no doubt be looking to prove them wrong. Eichel hasn’t been other worldly since his return but, does have two points in his last two games. I’m not sure what the odds will be on this but if you’re looking to play a player prop tonight, I would certainly give him a look.
• Alex Tuch Anytime Goal Scorer or Points
  • Alex Tuch was apart of that Eichel trade and has fit in nicely with the Buffalo Sabres. He’s provided them with some leadership in addition to offensive production. Tuch has gone three games without a point but what a better way to break that streak against your former team. Peyton Krebs was another piece of that trade so don’t be shocked if he has some extra motivation as well tonight. I wouldn’t necessarily play Krebs for anytime goal score. I would more look at his points total especially if it’s listed at 0.5. It will no doubly be a little juicy so play that at your own discretion.

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.