NHL Preview & Picks – March 14th, 2022

Only one game tonight in the NHL so I’ll break down that matchup and offer a pick. Let’s get into it!

Arizona Coyotes @ Ottawa Senators

• Time: 7:30 PM ET
• TV Coverage: ESPN+
• Arizona Coyotes: 18-36-4, 8th Central (9-16-3 Away)
• Ottawa Senators: 21-32-5, 6th Atlantic (11-17-2 Home)

Trends:

• Over is 4-1 in Coyotes last 5 as a road underdog.
• Over is 7-1-1 in Senators last 9 vs. Central division.

Previous Matchups:

• March 5, 2022
  • Ottawa (5) @ Arizona (8)
  • OTT: -120, ARI: +100, O/U: 5.5 (-125/+105)

Preview:

Arizona Coyotes

Are the Arizona Coyotes a good hockey team… short answer is no. However, they’re 4-1 in their last five games defeating the Avalanche, Senators, Red Wings, and Maple Leaf’s during that stretch. That one loss was at the hands of the Boston Bruins where they lost 3-2 in their last game. They’ll face a familiar foe in the Ottawa Senators tonight, a team that they beat 8-5 just nine days ago.

Over the course of the year, the Coyotes rank as one of the worst offensive teams averaging just 2.54 Goals For per game. However, in their last 10 they’re averaging 4.00 Goals For per game. They’re led up front by All-Star Clayton Keller who’s averaging two points per game in his last five games. In addition to Keller, Nick Schmaltz has been hot as of late. In their game against Ottawa last week, he set the Arizona Coyotes franchise record for most points in a game with 7 (2 Goals, 5 Assists). Arizona is still averaging below 30 Shots per game despite their uptick in scoring. The main reason for their increase in offensive production has been their Shooting %. On the year, they have a 9.8% Shooting Percentage but in their last 10 they have a 15% Shooting Percentage, which is absolutely wild. This number will inevitably regress, so we’ll see how much longer they can keep this up. Their Power Play ranks dead last in the NHL but, has been slightly better as of late. Despite the slight uptick in their man advantage conversion rate, the Coyotes have only scored three Power Play goals in their last 10 games.

Just like their offense, the Arizona Coyotes have been better on defense in their last 10 games. On the year, they rank 28th allowing an average of 3.56 Goals Against per game but in their last 10 they’ve only been allowing an average of 3.00. They rank 31st in Shots on Goal Allowed averaging 34.9 and have actually been worse recently allowing an average of 38.40. With the increased amount of scoring changes the Coyotes are allowing you may be wondering, why they’ve been better on defense and that’s because of Karel Vejmelka. Before, I talk about their goaltending, I just want to mention that their Penalty Kill ranks 31 out of 32. Ottawa’s Power Play has been solid recently and given that Arizona is one of the least disciplined teams in the NHL, it could pose a potential mismatch for them.

One name to monitor tonight is Jakob Chychrun who is questionable with a lower body injury. He’s most likely going to get dealt before the trade deadline to a team looking to bolster their defensive unit but, this injury complicates things. Hopefully this lower body injury isn’t anything serious but is definitely something to keep an eye out for.

Now onto Arizona’s goaltending, it looks as though Scott Wedgewood will get the start for them. Wedgewood has been the worse of the two goalies, allowing four or more goals in his past three games. In all of those games, he finished with a SV% below .900 and a negative Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx). He did start against Ottawa last time out allowing 5 goals and finishing the game with a -1.1 GSAx. On the year he ranks 62nd with a -2.2 GSAx.

Ottawa Senators

Unlike Arizona, the Senators have struggled as of late going 3-7 in their last 10 games. They are 2-1 in their last 3 defeating St Louis and Seattle but losing to Chicago in their last game 6-3. The Senators are in the middle of a homestand and will take on Arizona tonight before facing Columbus and Philadelphia. Just like the Coyotes, this team is out of playoff contention so it’s all about focusing on the future for them.

The Senators have regressed a bit offensively as of late averaging 2.50 Goals For in their last 10 when compared to their season average of 2.63. They’ve been on par averaging 30.0 Shots For as of late. They’ve had a slight decrease in Shooting % which accounts for their down tick in goals but it’s nothing major. Ottawa’s offense really hasn’t been better or worse recently. Their Power Play has been slightly better but like I said before, really nothing note worthy from this team in terms of offense. Drake Batherson remains out with an ankle injury and is expected to return later this month, thanks Aaron Dell. Even with Batherson missing 10 plus games, he’s still second on the team in points, which is concerning. Brady Tkachuk leads the team in points with 42 and was held without a point in their last matchup against the Coyotes.

Defensively, Ottawa has been worse in their last 10 with an average of 3.50 Goals Against. They’ve allowed around their season average of Shots Against per game but their issue has been losing their starting goaltender, Matt Murray. In terms of Special Teams, the Senators rank 13th on the Penalty Kill. However, they have allowed at least one goal against on the Power Play in six of their last 10.

Matt Murray remains sidelined with an undisclosed injury so Anton Forsberg or Filip Gustavsson will get the start. Forsberg started Ottawa’s last game vs Chicago where he allowed six goals against and finished with a .786 SV%, woof. Gustavsson, who was elevated from the AHL given Murray’s absence, could potentially get his first start since February 20th. In that game he was solid, only allowing two goals on 33 shots. On the year, Forsberg has a +5.5 GSAx while Gustavsson has a -4.4 GSAx.

Pick

• ARIZONA COYOTES TEAM TOTAL OVER 2.5 (-118) 
  • It looks as through Gustavsson will get the start who has a 3.66 Goals Against Average. The Coyotes offense has been much better as of late averaging 4.00 Goals For in their last 10 and face an Ottawa team giving up an average of 3.50 Goals Against in their last 10. The Coyotes were able to put up 8 goals against this team a little over a week ago and now they only need to score 3 to hit their team total over.

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.