PGA Championship – Preview & Picks

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We’re onto the second major of the year at Southern Hills Country Club. Defending champion Phil Mickelson will not be in the field this week as he has withdrawn. This will be the first time this course has hosted a major championship since it’s major renovation so there is a bit of unknown here. This course should provide an excellent challenge for all players this week so I’m expecting some difficult scoring conditions.

 

Tournament Information:

  • Dates: May 19th, 2022 – May 22nd, 2022
  • Location: Tulsa, Oklahoma, United States
  • Course: Southern Hill Country Club (Champions Course)
  • Par: 70 (4x 3’s / 12x 4’s / 2x 5’s)
  • Length: 7,556 yards
  • Format: 72 hole stroke play
  • Field/ Cut: 156 Players | Top 70 and Ties after 36 Holes
  • Greens: Pure Distinction bentgrass .120″
  • Fairways: Astro bermudagrass .375″
  • Rough: Astro bermudagrass / tall fescue 2.25″
  • Stimpmeter: 10.0
  • Purse: $12,000,000 / Winner $2,160,000
  • FedEx Cup Points: 600
  • Bunkers: 87
  • Water Hazards: 3 (In-Play on 15 Holes)
  • Average Green Size: 5,047 sq. ft.

 

Course Architect/ Comparable Courses:

  • Course Architect: Perry Maxwell (1936)
  • Renovation: Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner (2019)
  • Comparable Courses:
    • Augusta National – The Masters
    • Shinnecock Hills – 2018 U.S. Open

 

TV Information:

  • Round 1: Thursday, May 19th, 2022
    • ESPN – 2:00 PM – 8:00 PM ET
  • Round 2: Friday, May 20th, 2022
    • ESPN – 2:00 PM – 8:00 PM ET
  • Round 3: Saturday, May 21st, 2022
    • ESPN – 10:00 AM – 2:00 PM ET
    • CBS – 2:00 PM – 7:00 PM ET
  • Round 4: Sunday, May 22nd, 2022
    • ESPN – 10:00 AM – 2:00 PM ET
    • CBS – 2:00 PM – 7:00 PM ET

 

Weather:

  • Thursday: Partly Cloudy 79 F, 17 mp/h SW, 74% Humidity, 20% Chance of Rain
  • Friday: Mostly Sunny 79 F, 13 mp/h SWW, 72% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
  • Saturday: Partly Cloudy 78 F, 14 mp/h SSW, 78% Humidity, 20% Chance of Rain
  • Sunday: Mostly Cloudy 77 F, 13 mp/h SSW, 80% Humidity, 20% Chance of Rain

 

Course/ Tournament History:

The PGA Championship heads to Southern Hills Country Club for the first time since 2007. Southern Hill Country Club last hosted a major championship back in 2007, the PGA Championship. In total, the Champions course at Southern Hills has hosted 7 Major Championships; 3 U.S. Open’s and 4 PGA Championships. As it stands, it is the only course to ever host the PGA Championship four times.

In 2019, Southern Hills underwent a major renovation overseen by Gil Hanse. He’s been apart of some notable renovation projects before including Wing Foot prior to the 2020 U.S. Open. Hanse also designed The Rio de Janeiro Olympic Golf Course in 2016. The main goal of this renovation was to add distance as well as restoring elements of the original design by Perry Maxwell in 1936. Other changes to the course include wider fairways, new bunkers, and the reshaping of numerous greens.

Phil Mickelson who won the PGA Championship last year will not defend his title this year as he withdrew from the tournament due to person reasons. There’s been a lot of rumors speculating as to why he withdrew but only Phil and his team truly know. At 51 years old, Phil became the oldest player ever to win a major championship. He is the third PGA Champion to not defend his title in the past 75 years.

 

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

Southern Hills is a Par 70 that plays over 7,500 yards. The widened fairways should provide bombers the encouragement to attack these holes off the tee. The rough is also isn’t a major factor as it isn’t all that penal. The difficulty of this course comes in players approach shots. The greens are smaller than the tour average and are surrounded by run off areas that feed into bunkers or even worse creeks. Hitting the greens will be a little tougher this week given the wind in the predicted forecast. The greens aren’t that fast so players should be able to hold them. Given the difficulty of approach shots, scrambling around the green will be placed at a premium. Overall, this is a long course that relies on players ability to hit the green.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
PAR 4 4 4 4 5 3 4 3 4
YARDAGE 468 500 472 377 656 214 489 251 391

 

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
PAR 4 3 4 5 3 4 4 4 4
YARDAGE 441 173 456 632 230 417 527 371 491

 


Key Statistics:

  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
  • Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
  • Strokes Gained: Around the Green
  • Driving Distance
  • Par 4 Scoring
  • Scrambling
  • Major History / Comparable Course History

 

The Field/ Odds:

Scottie Scheffler headlines the field and will look to capture his second Major of the year. In addition to winning the Masters, Scheffler has also won the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and the WGC Dell Technologies Match Play. Scheffler has played in the PGA Championship twice before and has finished inside the Top 10 in both of those appearances.

Jon Rahm, who won the Mexico Open a few weeks ago, is another favorite this week. Surprisingly enough, that was his first victory of this season. He was close a few times finishing 2nd at the Sentry ToC and T3 and the Farmers Insurance Open. Rahm has yet to play since that victory in Mexico. His best finish in a PGA Championship came back in 2018 where he finished 4th.

Rory McIlroy has two PGA Championships under his belt winning in 2012 and again in 2014. McIlroy does have one win to his name this season capturing the CJ Cup back in October. He’s coming into this in great form finishing 2nd at the Masters with a stellar round on Sunday and 5th at the Wells Fargo Championship.

Collin Morikawa, winner of the PGA Championship in 2020 has a history of success in this event. In his only other PGA Championship appearance he finished 8th. Morikawa has been a Top 10 machine this season but has yet to capture a win. In his 11 tournament starts this year, he has finished inside the Top 10 in 7 of those events. However, he hasn’t been in the best form as of late and has yet to play on Tour since the Zurich Classic, which was back in late April.

Jordan Spieth will be looking to complete the Grand Slam this week. He has won all three other Majors but yet to win the PGA Championship. Spieth has come close several times finished 2nd in 2015 and 3rd in 2019. He enters this weeks event in great form winning the RBC Heritage and finishing 2nd in the AT&T Byron Nelson in his last two Tour starts.

Previous PGA Championship winners in the field; Collin Morikawa, Brooks Koepka, Justin Thomas, Jason Day, Rory McIlroy, Jason Duffer, and Tiger Woods.

If you’re looking for a few trends this week here they are:

  • Americans have won the last six PGA Championships
  • 39 of the last 40 Major Winners were ranked inside the OWGR top 50
  • The last 12 PGA Championship winners made the cut in their final start before the event
  • 9 of the last 12 PGA Championship winners were 30 years or younger

To see the most up to date odds, you can click the following link.

To find out how everyone in the field has qualified, you can click the following link.

 

Previous Winners Scores & Prices:

  • 2021: Phil Mickelson (-6)
    • Price: 250-1
  • 2020: Collin Morikawa (-13)
    • Price: 35-1
  • 2019: Brooks Koepka (-8)
    • Price: 11-1
  • 2018: Brooks Koepka (-16)
    • Price: 20-1
  • 2017: Justin Thomas (-8)
    • Price: 45-1

 

Picks (Outright):

  • Rory McIlroy (+1600) – FanDuel
    • Risk 0.50 to win 8.00 Units
  • Hideki Matsuyama (+2500) – BetMGM
    • Risk 0.32 to win 8.00 Units
  • Viktor Hovland (+2800) – FanDuel
    • Risk 0.29 to win 8.12 Units
  • Dustin Johnson (+3500) – DraftKings
    • Risk 0.23 to win 8.05 Units

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.34 Units

 

Picks (Top 20):

  • Shane Lowry (+140) – Caesars
    • Risk 1.00 to win 1.40 Units

Lowry has finished inside the Top 20 in six of his last seven tournaments. He’s a great ball striker ranking 4th in Strokes Gained Approach and can handle the windy conditions. While he’s not great off the tee ranking 64th in strokes gained, his approach play should give him an advantage. One concern is his play around the green but he is 2nd in terms of Scrambling.

  • Will Zalatoris (+160) – PointsBet
    • Risk 1.00 to win 1.40 Units

Zalatoris enters this week event ranking 1st in Strokes Gained Approach on the PGA Tour. He’s also long off tee, ranking 12th in Driving Distance. In addition to the length he ranks 11th in Strokes Gained Off the Tee. He played in the PGA Championship last year and finished 8th. Zalatoris also enters the tournament finishing T6 or better in three of his last four events.

Total Risk on Top 20: 2.00 Units

 

Picks (Top 40):

  • Tony Finau (+100) – PointsBet
    • Risk 1.00 to win 1.00 Units

Tony Finau ranks well in terms of all the key categories. He’s 23rd in Strokes Gained Off the Tee and 32nd in Stokes Gained Approach. Finau isn’t a great short game player or putter but he has gained strokes putting in three of his last four events. He’s also gained strokes around the green in his last two events. Finau has also finished inside the Top 40 in four of his last five events and in the lone event he missed, he placed T41.

Total Risk on Top 40: 1.00 Units

 

Total Risk on the PGA Championship: 4.34 Units 

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.