Premiums, 5.11

Don’t give a shit what anyone says – this line is wrong and I’ll be writing an article about it today. Bookmakers have the Celtics as two-possession favorites after a gutsy performance from Al Horford, a surge by Tatum in the 4th quarter, and an excellent all-around team effort on defense in game 4. Not so fast, my friends. I realize this is in Boston, but this is the Milwaukee Bucks, the returning champions, and a number of things went awry that we won’t count on in game 5. The Bucks shot 41.5% from the floor and 33.3% from beyond the arc – that won’t happen again. J. Holiday had a horrendous shooting game, support anchors like Portis and Allen did next to nothing, and Giannis was visibly frustrated and exhausted after carrying his team to a level even he’s not used to. Credit to the Boston defense, but Boston was still outplayed for the majority of Monday’s contest. The Celtics are a great team but this is a HUGE spot and there’s going to be a ton of pressure on both teams tonight. Sometimes (often, actually) it’s the intangible aspects of a game that make the difference. We think the battle-tested Bucks are up to the task, I expect a well-coached unit to try and mix it up and free up Giannis more than he has been, and I wouldn’t be shocked if they win.

We’re not overthinking this one, either. The shooting was atrocious for 3/4 quarters of the previous contest. Only in the 4th quarter did either team really find a rhythm, and we think that carries over in game 5. The Warriors had the best offense heading into the previous game and the Grizzlies, although they “tried to slow down the game” Monday, Golden State had a thousand open shots that they just didn’t hit, aka the defense wasn’t really there like it should have been. Memphis will want to run the floor and get ahead of Golden State, again, and we expect more pace and more efficiency from both offensive units. I like it better early, but I lean the full game over and I think the Warriors close it out tonight.

We know that Shane McClanahan is a talented pitcher (3.06 ERA, .99 WHIP over 32.1 innings) but these Angels bats are HOT. I’m buying into the hot team slugging a few more against one of the better pitching lineups in MLB – this is fantastic value.

Watkins (3.22 ERA, 1.39 WHIP over 22.1 innings) faces off against Miles Mikolas (1.53 ERA, .99 WHIP over 35.1 innings), two pitchers who have looked consistently commanding and confident to start the season. The Baltimore offense is way overdue for a cool-down and I expect Watkins to be at his best after his worst performance of the season.

The Panthers have an explosive offense but the Capitals are too good and the objectively better team in most other categories. They don’t deserve to be undervalued like this and I’m inclined to keep taking advantage.